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Friday Estimates: Far From Fantastic

August 8th, 2015

Fantastic Four

I was significantly less optimistic than most box office analysts were when it came to the weekend predictions. While most predicted Fantastic Four would earn just over $40 million over the weekend, I assumed the film will struggle so much that it was just a matter of time before it was given back to Marvel Studios. Despite my pessimism, I appear to have been too optimistic.

Fantastic Four only managed $11.3 million on Friday, which is enough for first place on the daily chart, but unlikely to keep it in first place throughout the weekend. Trying to find a movie to compare it to is difficult. After all, how many other comic book movies have earned reviews this bad? Its Cinemascore was a C-, so even most of those who wanted to see the film badly enough to go opening day didn't like it. I guess Green Lantern is the most similar film, but its Tomatometer Score is nearly three times higher and it earned a B for its Cinemascore. If we were to use Green Lantern's internal multiplier for Fantastic Four, it would earn $28 million over the weekend. This should be considered the high end of expectations. On the low end, it will only make $25 million, signifying an end to the summer blockbuster season.

Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation was pushed into second place on Friday with $8.165 million, but it won't be unseated for long. It should bounce back on Saturday, thanks in part to its word-of-mouth. It will be a close race, but I think it will remain in first place over the full weekend with $28 million, giving it a running tally of $107 million. It isn't a monster hit, but this is more than enough to justify another installment in the franchise.

The other new releases are performing more or less in line with expectations. The Gift and Ricki and the Flash are on pace to come close to predictions with weekend hauls of $9 million and $7 million respectively. Shaun of the Sheep is close to the low of its range and should grab about $4 million. It's the end of summer, so these results are not unexpected.


Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Fantastic Four, Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation, Ricki and the Flash, Shaun the Sheep, The Gift, Mission: Impossible