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Weekend Wrap-Up: Goosebumps Leads Unstimulating Weekend

October 20th, 2015

Bridge of Spies

It is hard to get excited about the weekend box office results, as the top four films all missed predictions. (Granted, Bridge of Spies came within a rounding error of expectations.) Goosebumps did well for a live-action family film, but still not great. The Martian fell faster than anticipated, but it was Crimson Peak that was the biggest disappointment. Overall, the box office rose 2.5% from last weekend to $121 million. However, this was 7.6% lower than the same weekend last year. Had every film in the top five matched expectations, then this gap would have been reduced to just a percent or two. Despite this, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by more than $400 million at $8.46 billion to $8.05 billion. It would take a few more weeks of year-over-year declines before I would be concerned.

Goosebumps opened with $23.62 million, which is a good opening, especially for a live-action family film. It's 54% higher than the opening of Pan and 29% higher than Alexander and the... Additionally, Goosebumps is earning better reviews than that those two films managed. This could result in better legs leading to a $75 million run domestically. If it can match that internationally, it will break even early in its home market run.

The Martian fell 42%, which is steeper than expected, but it still earned $21.30 million over the weekend for a total of $143.60 million after three weeks of release. This decline puts $200 million domestically at serious risk; however, I don't think Fox is all that concerned. Its worldwide total is already high enough that it might have broken even already. It has certainly covered its production budget by now.

Bridge of Spies missed expectations, but came within a rounding error with $15.37 million over the weekend. Additionally, it has a more mature target demographic and near Oscar-worthy reviews, so it could have long legs at the box office. Given this, anything less than $50 million domestically will be disappointing. If it does start picking up Awards Season buzz, it could double that. That is unlikely, but possible, if Disney gives it a post-nomination push.

Crimson Peak is the biggest disappointment of the weekend, as it only managed fourth place with $13.14 million. This wouldn't be bad for the average horror film, but Guillermo Del Toro doesn't make average films. This film cost $55 million to make, compared to films like The Woman in Black, which cost $15 million to make. Granted, you can see all $55 million on the screen, which is partially why the movie earned good reviews, but unless this movie is a surprise hit internationally, it will lose money.

Hotel Transylvania 2 rounded out the top five with $12.65 million over the weekend for a total of $136.81 million after four weeks of release. The film will have no trouble getting to $150 million domestically, perhaps as early as this time next week. Plus, its performance internationally has been just as strong so I see no reason to not make another installment in the franchise.

There was one more new release in the top ten, as Woodlawn earned ninth place with $4.00 million in 1,553 theaters. This isn't a great start; it's not even a good run compared to its Friday opening. After seeing its Friday estimates, I figured it would have a better internal multiplier than Do You Believe? because it had better reviews. But nope. It actually did worse. This is why I hate faith-based films. They are too unpredictable. Not even comparing them to other faith-based films helps.

Pan was the best of the sophomore class with a weekend haul of $5.86 million for a total of $25.74 million. That's 62% lower than its opening weekend and its per theater average suggests it will take a huge hit in its theater count next weekend. The other sophomore film was The Walk, which fell to 14th place with just $1.20 million in 2,489 theaters. Its total is just $9.18 million and it will finish with barely more than $10 million. That's awful.

Weekend Box Office Chart

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Hotel Transylvania 2, Crimson Peak, Pan, Goosebumps, The Martian, The Walk, Bridge of Spies, Woodlawn, Hotel Transylvania, Guillermo del Toro