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Weekend Predictions: Apocalypse vs. Alice

May 26th, 2016

X-Men: Apocalypse

It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.

The X-Men franchise is on a winning streak with the last two installments both setting new high marks for the movies. Unfortanately, X-Men: Apocalypse looks like it will be a serious setback for the franchise, both in terms of box office dollars and critical reception. At the moment, the film's reviews are just 48% positive, making it the second worst X-Men movie, behind only X-Men: Origins: Wolverine. Additionally, it has opened internationally but failed to live up to Days of Future Past in most major markets. I don't think it will be a bomb, but it will start slow and have shorter legs. Look for $72 million over the three day weekend and $88 million over four. That will still be enough to earn first place with ease, but not enough to get to $200 million domestically.

Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland. That film earned mixed reviews, but managed to earn over $1 billion worldwide. Granted, part of that was due to the novelty of 3D movies, but you can't deny it was a hit. For a while, it looked like Through the Looking Glass would have a similar Tomatometer Score; in fact, early this week, it had 48% positive reviews. Since then, its reviews have fallen to just 30% positive. That's a problem. I still think it will hit $100 million domestically and over $400 million worldwide. That's not bad for a film that cost $170 million to make, but it will need help from the home market to break even. Look for an opening weekend of $50 million / $62 million.

The Angry Birds Movie will be pushed down to third place with $23 million over the weekend, which will keep it on pace to top $100 million before its domestic run is over. Its reviews are mixed, while one of the two wide releases is more or less direct competition.

As of Wednesday, Captain America: Civil War has $355 million, putting it in second place on the yearly domestic chart. It won't stay there for long. Look for $21 million over the weekend putting the film above Deadpool for the year.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising will round out the top five with $12 million. It is on pace to top $50 million and become a midlevel hit. It will need help on the home market to break even, but its reviews suggest that will happen.

Since last weekend, The Jungle Book has overtaken Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice on the yearly chart. Finding Dory will knock BvS out of the top five next month.

- X-Men: Apocalypse Comparisons
- Alice Through the Looking Glass Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Angry Birds Movie, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, The Jungle Book, Alice Through the Looking Glass, X-Men: Apocalypse, Captain America: Civil War, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, X-Men