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Weekend Wrap-Up: Dory Defeats Alien Invasion with $72.96 million

June 28th, 2016

Finding Dory

As predicted, Finding Dory repeated as the box office champion and came very close to matching our prediction with $72.96 million over the weekend. This is well above Independence Day: Resurgence's opening of $41.04 million. The Shallows was great as a low-budget horror film. The other two films... let's not talk about them. Overall, the box office fell 19% from last weekend to $188 million; however, this is to be expected, given how big Finding Dory opened. The weekend box office was even better than the same weekend last year, albeit by only 2.3%, which is not enough to keep up with inflation. Likewise, the year-over-year comparison is not great either. 2016 still leads 2015, but only by $5.38 billion to $5.31 billion, which is a lead of just 1.2%. Hopefully this weekend's win is a sign of things turning around, but I'm not so sure of that.

Finding Dory remained in first place with $72.96 million over the weekend for a total of $286.28 million after just ten days of release. At this pace, the film will reach $300 million on Tuesday and it will still be in the top five when it crosses the $400 million mark. Obviously its reviews are a huge asset, as is its family-friendly target demographic. However, the latter might actually become a liability, as there are three other releases aimed at families coming out in July.

A lot of people at Fox are looking at the Independence Day: Resurgence opening weekend and saying to themselves, "At least the international numbers are better." The film opened in a distant second place with $41.04 million over the weekend. It did earn a theater average of just over $10,000, so theater owners won't be quick to drop the movie. On the other hand, the film's reviews are just 33% positive and the film's audience reaction isn't much better. Hopefully it will still get to $100 million domestically, but even that's not a sure thing.

Central Intelligence fell less than 50% during its sophomore stint, which is really impressive for any genre, outside of family films. It pulled in $18.24 million raising its total to $69.17 million after just ten days of release. At this pace, the film should get to $100 million domestically. If it can make half that internationally, then a sequel will be in the works.

Despite its traveling release date, The Shallows was a surprise hit earning $16.80 million during its opening weekend. The reviews will help its legs, but its genre won't. I don't think it will get to $50 million domestically. On the other hand, given its low production budget, getting to $40 million will be enough to break even sooner rather than later.

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist grabbed fifth place with $7.70 million over the weekend for a total of $86.90 million after three weeks of release. It too is on pace for $100 million, so it comes as no real surprise that another sequel is in the works. However, I'm a little concerned there are potentially three sequels already in development. A new spin-off for The Nun, a sequel for Annabelle, and of course The Conjuring 3. We will add them to our database if and when release dates are announced. If the next film flops, I could see the other two being pushed back indefinitely.

Free State of Jones missed the top five with an opening of $7.57 million over the weekend. Its reviews are just 41% positive, which is not good, but not as bad as its box office. Even good word of mouth won't save this film's theatrical run, as theater owners will be looking to drop it for upcoming releases.

While there was a chance The Neon Demon would earn a spot in the top ten, it wasn't able to. It didn't even come close. The film made $589,000 during the entire weekend. Had it made that on Friday alone, it still wouldn't have been enough to earn a spot in the top ten. Look for a quick exit from theaters, but the film does have cult appeal, so perhaps it will find a receptive audience on the home market.

- Weekend Box Office

- Finding Dory Comparisons
- Independence Day: Resurgence Comparisons
- The Shallows Comparisons
- Free State of Jones Comparisons
- The Neon Demon Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Central Intelligence, Free State of Jones, Finding Dory, Independence Day: Resurgence, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist, The Neon Demon, The Shallows