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Weekend Estimates: Moana Sails to Thanksgiving Win

November 27th, 2016


Disney’s domination of Thanksgiving weekend will continue in 2016, with Moana expected to post $55.5 million for the three-day weekend and $81.1 million in total, making it either the second-best or best Thanksgiving opener of all time, depending on what you consider an “opener.” Disney is claiming second place for Moana behind Frozen, which had a $67.4 million 3-day weekend, and $93.6 million 5-day weekend back in 2013. That film had already opened in a single theater the weekend before, so if we want to split hairs, it technically wasn’t opening that weekend. Either way you look at it, it’s a great start for Moana, and another handsome win for Disney. The studio can now claim the top six 5-day Thanksgiving debuts and and the top eight 3-day Thanksgiving openings of all time.

Not to be entirely outdone, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them will post $45.1 million for the three-day weekend, per Warner Bros., which is down a relatively modest 39% from last weekend. The film has now grossed $156 million domestically, and is well on the way to establishing a new franchise. Doctor Strange, meanwhile, will be down 25% to $13.4 million this weekend, and will top $200 million after four weekends. It will end Sunday with $205 million or so domestically, and $410.9 million internationally, for $616 million globally so far.

Also notable among the returning films this weekend is Arrival, which is down just 7% in its third weekend, and will pick up another $11.25 million, for a total so far of $62.4 million. Among the more cerebral films in theaters right now, it’s probably the one to watch over the next few weeks as awards season picks up pace.

Among the other new releases, Allied is the only film aside from Moana to come out of this weekend relatively unscathed. It will make around $13 million over three days for $18 million in total, and should stick around for a while. The same cannot be said of Bad Santa 2, which will hit $6.1 million this weekend, and come out of the weekend with $9 million in total. With a theater average of $2,091, the film won’t have a long shelf life. That’s comparative riches, however, compared to the opening of Rules Don’t Apply, which is stumbling to around $1.575 million this weekend, $2.175 million in total, and an average of $661 per theater. Catch it in the next few days if you want to see it in a theater.

At the other end of the spectrum, three awards hopefuls are having excellent weekends. Manchester by the Sea continues its march into contention for Oscars with $1.25 million this weekend from 48 locations for a stellar average of $26,000. Lion will open with a projected $128,368, per Weinstein, with an average of $32,000 from four theaters. Miss Sloane will hit about $63,000 from three locations. All three films will charge up the charts over the next couple of weeks, and Manchester by the Sea is a good bet for the top 10 next weekend.

- Weekend estimates

- Moana comparison chart
- Allied comparison chart
- Bad Santa 2 comparison chart
- Rules Don’t Apply comparison chart
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them comparison chart
- The Edge of Seventeen comparison chart
- Arrival comparison chart
- Doctor Strange comparison chart
- Marvel Cinematic Universe at the box office
- Trolls comparison chart
- Hacksaw Ridge comparison chart

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Moana, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Lion, Doctor Strange, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival, Allied, Bad Santa 2, Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, Marvel Cinematic Universe