Weekend Estimates: Rogue One and Hidden Figures Tied at the Top
January 8, 2017
With one day left in a topsy-turvy weekend, we have a virtual tie at the top of the box office chart, with both studios claiming a narrow win. Disney posted the highest projection this morning, saying they are expecting Rogue One to earn $21.972 million this weekend. Fox, meanwhile, is projecting $21.8 million for Hidden Figures, and thinks that the film’s lead of about $900,000 coming out of Saturday will be enough to hold on for a win. Sunday’s performance will be key, and there are a couple of factors that make the outcome genuinely uncertain…
First, poor weather across the country in the first full weekend of the new year could affect turnout. It’s very hard to say which film will benefit most from that. Second, Hidden Figures could draw a sizable churchgoing crowd on Sunday afternoon, although that’s always hard to predict. What’s certain is that no-one will know for sure which film has prevailed until final numbers come out tomorrow, and both studios have acknowledged that the weekend is essentially tied at this point.
All of which shouldn’t detract from the fact that Hidden Figures is having an excellent opening weekend. Its $21.8 million total, A+ CinemaScore, and stellar reviews put it on track for a strong box office run at a perfect time to garner some major awards season buzz. This is, without question, a film to watch over the next month.
Rogue One, of course, already has more than enough money in the bank that a technical win or loss on one weekend is purely academic. It has now amassed $477 million domestically and $437.1 million overseas, according to Disney’s numbers this morning, for a global total of $914.4 million. With $78.6 million globally this weekend, the film should make it past $1 billion worldwide sometime in the next couple of weeks. It moves past The Secret Life of Pets and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice this weekend to become the 5th-highest-grossing film worldwide released in 2016, and Disney, remarkably, hold the top five spots on that chart now.
Along with the good news, this weekend also features a couple of disappointments. Sony’s Underworld: Blood Wars will make a modest $13.1 million from 3,070 theaters, which is comfortably the worst debut for the franchise, and basically half the $25.3 million earned on opening weekend by Underworld: Awakening. Somewhat better numbers internationally won’t be enough to save it.
A Monster Calls will miss the top 10, with Focus projecting a $2 million weekend from 1,523 theaters. A strong audience reaction, with an A CinemaScore, won’t be enough to keep the film in theaters long enough to recover from its stumble out of the gate. Perhaps it can find a second life on video and TV.
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, A Monster Calls, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Underworld: Blood Wars, Hidden Figures, Underworld