Weekend Predictions: Will Batman Become a Billionaire?

February 9, 2017

The Lego Batman Movie

This should be the biggest weekend of the month with three potential hits, all of which are sequels. Of the three, The Lego Batman Movie is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the weekend. In fact, it is widely expected to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Fifty Shades Darker could be one of those rare sequels that earns less in total than the original made during its opening weekend. However, I’m not that pessimistic. On the other hand, John Wick: Chapter Two should open significantly better than its predecessor opened with, but it is still aiming to become a midlevel hit, nothing more. This weekend last year, Deadpool opened with $132 million. That could be more than the top two films open with this weekend. Even though 2017 does have better depth, I think it will lose in the year-over-year comparison.

The Lego Batman Movie is a spin-off / sequel to The LEGO Movie. That film earned stunning reviews and became a massive hit at the box office. This film’s reviews are nearly as good. It should open faster, as most sequels do, and while it likely won’t have the same legs, it should still be a monster hit. Look for an opening of just over $75 million during its opening weekend and $225 million in total.

Fifty Shades of Grey was a surprise hit when it came out in 2015. Most people assumed it would do well, but not nearly $600 million worldwide well. Unfortunately, the film’s reviews were really bad at just 25% positive. This is bad news for Fifty Shades Darker, because when the original film has negative reviews, it tends to have a negative impact on the sequel’s box office performance. Worse still, this film’s reviews are even worse at currently just 9% positive. ... I was expecting a bad movie, just not this bad. Even so, it should still be a hit at the theaters, at least at the opening weekend. Look for close to $50 million, but that might not be enough to get to $100 million in total.

John Wick: Chapter Two is the film I was most excited to see this month. The first film earned 85% positive reviews and I’ve enjoyed it more and more each time I’ve seen it. I was worried that the sequel wouldn’t be able to live up to its predecessor, but that won’t be an issue. So far, its Tomatometer Score is 89% positive. It might slip below the original, but at worst it appears it will be close enough. As for its box office chances, the first film opened with $14.42 million and finished with $43.04 million. Given its success on the home market, I think it will nearly double the first film’s opening weekend, while its reviews will help its legs. Look for $26 million over the weekend and $74 million in total.

Split will finally relinquish first place, but since it already hit $100 million, the studio should be more than happy with its results thus far. The amount of competition will hurt, leaving it with just under $8 million over the weekend.

Hidden Figures should round out the top five with just under $7 million over the weekend. The film has already made enough to cover its entire production and advertising budget, so anything it makes now is pure profit.

- The Lego Batman Movie Comparisons
Fifty Shades Darker Comparisons
- John Wick: Chapter Two Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lego Batman Movie, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Split, Hidden Figures