Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: Will Beauty have a Beastly Opening?

March 17th, 2017

Beauty and the Beast

Beauty and the Beast was always expected to be the biggest hit of the month. Now the prevailing wisdom has the film becoming the biggest March opening of all time. Even if it doesn’t match the high end of expectations, it is widely expected to earn more than the entire box office did this weekend last year. On the downside, The Belko Experiment isn’t expected to open in the top five, in fact, it could miss the Mendoza Line. Furthermore, holdovers like Kong: Skull Island and Logan will take a beating at the box office. Overall, the news looks great and 2017 should actually get ahead of 2016 for the first time all year.

Beauty and the Beast is the latest live-action remake of a Disney cartoon. So far, all of these films have been massive hits, the “weakest” of which, Cinderella, earned over $200 million at the box office. Last year’s The Jungle Book earned over $360 million. At this point, if Beauty and the Beast earned less than $400 million, most people would see it as a disappointment. On the downside, its reviews are weaker than anticipated at just 68% positive. This is obviously still good, but The Jungle Book earned 95% positive reviews. Strangely, I can’t really get a read on why the reviews are not as positive. Many say it is not as good as the original was, but there are also critics complaining that elements of the original movie don’t stand up more than 25 years later. This will likely hurt its legs, but the buzz for the opening weekend has it earning $160 million to $180 million. I’m going to be a little cautious and predict $168 million during its opening weekend and over $500 million domestically.

Kong: Skull Island opened much better than expected last weekend. Unfortunately, this was partially due to its better than expected performance with families and this means Beauty and the Beast will hurt it more than anticipated this weekend. I don’t think it will fall as fast as Logan did during its sophomore stint, but it will be close with $27 million over the weekend for a total of $110 million after two weeks of release. Its reviews should help it stick around in theaters for a while.

Logan will be next with $19 million over the weekend. The film has already climbed into top spot for 2017 and it will hit $200 million after next weekend. It likely won’t get there before Beauty and the Beast does.

Get Out will remain in the top five for one more weekend earning $13 million over the weekend for a total of over $130 million after four weeks of release. This will be the film’s last weekend in the top five, but it remains on pace to crack $150 million domestically.

The Shack will earn another $6 million over the weekend and it is on pace to reach $50 million domestically. That’s not a lot compared to the four films above it, but still great for a faith-based film.

The second “wide” release of the week is The Belko Experiment, which is only opening in approximately 1,300 theaters. There have been a number of films that have opening in less than 2,000 theaters this year, but none of them have been hits. Several of them have missed the Mendoza Line ($2,000/theater). The film’s reviews are mixed and a lot of critics who didn’t like the movie hated it. Best case scenario has the film coming close to fifth place with $5 million, but opening with less than $2 million is also likely. I think the lower end is more likely and I’m going with a $3 million opening.

- Beauty and the Beast Comparisons
- The Belko Experiment Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Logan, Kong: Skull Island, Beauty and the Beast, The Shack, Get Out, The Belko Experiment