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Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Going to be Wonderful

June 2nd, 2017

Wonder Woman

It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.

Wonder Woman is the fourth film in the DCEU. This franchise has earned over $2 billion worldwide so far, but its critical reception has been a lot worse with a number of complaints that come up again and again and again. This includes a poor understanding of the main characters, a grimdark tone, and some of the worst editing for a major motion picture ever. Wonder Woman just needed to be competently made, treat the source material right, and have a sense of wonder that was missing from the previous movies. If it could do that, then its reviews would be a selling point. It did this and a whole lot more. At the moment, the film’s reviews are 93% positive. This isn’t the best for a wide release this year, but it is certainly among the best. The buzz is also peaking at the perfect time with a lot of people keen on seeing the first female-led super hero movie in years and the first that is earning critical acclaim. As far as box office potential is concerned, I’m predicting a $108 million opening. This is a ton of money, but it isn’t even the highest prediction I’ve seen.

Up next is Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie. This book series was a monster hit with its target audience, so it makes total sense that a movie studio would want to adapt it into a kids movie. Here’s the thing... the reviews are good enough that it has some crossover appeal with adults. It’s not Pixar-level quality where those who don’t even have kids will want to watch it in theaters, but if you do have kids the right age for the movie, you will want to watch it with them. This should help its box office chances and it could make as much as $35 million during its opening weekend. $31 million is more likely, on the other hand.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales didn’t live up to the previous installments in the franchise during its opening last weekend, nor was it praised by many critics. Furthermore, it has to deal with direct competition. It did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, but that’s not enough to overcome the other factors. Look for a 66% decline from its opening weekend, leaving the film with $21 million. This will be enough to reach $110 million, putting $150 million within reach. If it can get there, it will at least save face domestically.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 should be next with just over $10 million over the weekend, lifting its running tally to over $350 million. That will be the film’s last major milestone domestically, but it is more than enough to ensure profitability.

Baywatch will round out the top five with almost $8 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $40 million. It needed to open with that much to be a box office hit.

- Wonder Woman Comparisons
- Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Comparisons

Filed under: International Box Office, Wonder Woman, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, Baywatch, Pirates of the Caribbean, DC Extended Universe