Weekend Predictions: Can Despicable have a Picable Opening?
June 29, 2017
Despicable Me 3 should dominate the box office this weekend, which is good news, because the last few weeks have been underwhelming. In fact, we haven’t had a monster hit since Wonder Woman started the month off with a bang. The House is an R-rated comedy, but since the last such film to come out bombed, I’m a little worried about its chances. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday and its early numbers are promising. It won’t be a $100 million hit, but it should earn a solid profit for Sony. This weekend last year, there were no monster hits at the box office, but there was solid depth. This weekend, we should be much stronger on top, while the depth won’t be that much weaker, leading to 2017 ending its mini-losing streak.
Despicable Me 3 is the fourth film in the Despicable Me franchise, including the Minions spin-off. It is usually at this time that the box office numbers start to dip. The reviews have definitely slipped from the previous two Despicable movies, going from 81% positive to just 61% positive. This is still firm for a family film, but likely won’t draw in adult fans of animation. This will likely result in a dip at the box office. Despicable Me 2 earned $84.22 million during its opening weekend, Despicable Me 3 will likely be a little lower at $82 million. That’s still a great start and better than the top two films from this weekend last year.
Baby Driver looked to be this year’s The Nice Guys. I.E., the film was earning stunning reviews, but that wasn’t going to be enough to find an audience in theaters. Fortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Baby Driver opened on Wednesday earning first place $5.71 million, including $2.1 million in previews on Tuesday. Unfortunately, there are not enough midlevel Wednesday openings to really judge how well this movie is doing so far. This is only the second wide release to open on a Wednesday this year, with Transformers: The Last Knight being the first. We need to find a summer Wednesday opening from the last decade, so the comparison is still valid. It can’t be based on a a previous property, because this tends to front-load the box office numbers. It needs to be an action film, preferably a serious action film. And it needs to have a more modest budget. Finally, good reviews. ... Is Nerve really the best comparison we have? If we use that film, then Baby Driver will get $15 million over the weekend and $24 million after five. I think Baby Driver’s reviews will give it much better legs, so legs go with $20 million over the weekend and $30 million after five. This is very close to the film’s $34 million production budget and more than enough to be a financial success.
Opening on a Wednesday usually helps a film’s sophomore stint, but I don’t think that will be enough to save Transformers: The Last Knight, not with its reviews. It could fall more than 60% over the weekend, which would leave it with just under $18 million over the weekend. I don’t think it will hit this ignoble mark, but it will be close with just over $18 million.
Wonder Woman should be right behind with just over $16 million. By the end of Wednesday, Wonder Woman had overtaken Suicide Squad and by the end of Thursday, the film will have about $330 million, putting it in a virtual tie with Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice at the domestic box office. If it doesn’t become the biggest domestic hit in the DCEU by Thursday, then it will certainly get there by Friday.
Cars 3 should round out the top five with $13 million over the weekend. It remains on pace with $150 million domestically, which is good for a digitally animated film, but well below Pixar’s average.
The House is the final wide release of the week, but its box office chances have taken a real hit. There are almost no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and the ones there are mixed, to be polite. It appears to be funny in parts, but overstays its welcome. There is also a lack of buzz and that is very troubling. The box office potential of R-rated comedies seem to have faded recently, which further lowers its chances this weekend. It does have a shot at the top five with close to $15 million, but I think sixth place with $12 million is more likely.
- Despicable Me 3 Comparisons
- Baby Driver Comparisons
- The House Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman, Baby Driver, Despicable Me 3, The House, Cars 3, Rough Night, Transformers: The Last Knight, Despicable Me, DC Extended Universe