Weekend Predictions: Will Moviegoers Want to View Boo 2?
October 20, 2017
There are five films opening wide or semi-wide this week, but only one of them, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween, has a real shot at top spot. The best-reviewed new release of the week is Only the Brave, while the Geostorm is the widest release. Then there are the two semi-wide releases, The Snowman and Same Kind of Different as Me. Because there are so many new releases coming out this week, one or two of them are practically guaranteed to slip between the cracks. This weekend last year, the box office was led by the original Boo! with $28.50 million, while the new releases made just over $70 million combined. That seems out of reach for this year’s crop, so 2017 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison.
Tyler Perry’s Boo 2: A Madea Halloween is a horror / comedy that leans heavily on the comedy part of that dynamic. The original Boo! debuted this weekend last year with $28.50 million and finished as one of the best in the Madea franchise. Normally, one expects sequels to start faster, but decline quicker. I don’t think the former is going to happen this time around, because one year is not enough time between franchises. The original bombed with critics, but earned an A from CinemaScore, so clearly the target audience liked the film. So far this film only has one review, so it is impossible to tell if its critical reception will be better or worse. That said, I’ve learned it is unwise to underestimate Madea, so I’m going with a $24 million opening weekend and a $60 million total.
Happy Death Day topped expectations last weekend earning $26.04 million. Its reviews are good and it earned a solid B from CinemaScore. This should help its legs. On the other hand, it is still a horror movie and there are a lot of new releases it has to deal with. It could fall to just over $10 million during its second weekend of release, which would be fine for a film that cost just $5 million to make. I’m a little more bullish than that and I’m going with $12 million.
Geostorm is the widest release of the week, but it is widely expected to bomb. The $100 million movie had a troubled production and there’s almost no chance the studio will recoup its loses. At the moment, the early reviews are 38% positive, which is about twice as good as I was expecting. Unfortunately, this is still bad and won’t help the movie overcome weak buzz. It still has a shot at second place with just over $12 million; however, just under $11 million is more likely.
Only the Brave is earning the best reviews of the new releases with a Tomatometer Score of 90% positive. On the other hand, the average is 7.2 out of 10, so most critics liked it rather than loved it. It is also earning quiet buzz, which is more troublesome. It could surprise and compete for second place, but I think fourth place with just under $10 million is a safer bet.
Blade Runner 2049 should round out the top five with just over $8 million during its third weekend of release.
The Snowman has a great cast, but terrible reviews earning a Tomatometer Score of just 12% positive. Worse still, its target audience is more likely to read reviews and choose a movie accordingly. The cast still has star power, which gives the movie a shot at fifth place, but I think it will miss out with just under $8 million.
Same Kind of Different as Me is the smallest new release on this week’s list and it still has no reviews. There’s a chance the film will open below the Mendoza Line, but I’m not that pessimistic. It will come close with $3 million during its opening weekend.
- Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween Comparisons
- Geostorm Comparisons
- Only the Brave Comparisons
- The Snowman Comparisons
- Same Kind of Different as Me Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Geostorm, Blade Runner 2049, Same Kind of Different as Me, The Snowman, Only the Brave, Happy Death Day, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, Madea