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Weekend Predictions: Will Coco Come to Life at the Box Office?

November 22nd, 2017

Coco

Coco is the only wide release of the week, which is amazing for Thanksgiving weekend. This should boost its chances at the box office and it is now expected to open in first place. Justice League was expected to repeat as box office champion this weekend, but that’s likely not going to happen now. This weekend last year, Moana earned $82 million over the five-day weekend. I don’t think Coco will match that, but it will come close enough to top the chart.

Coco is the second Pixar release of the year. The first, Cars 3, had among the weakest box office results in the company’s history. This film should perform a lot better for a number of reasons. Firstly, its reviews are 96% positive and the average score is 8 out of 10. Secondly, there are no new wide releases to compete with. In fact, there might not be another truly wide release until The Last Jedi and Ferdinand open in the middle of December. This weekend last year, Moana opened with $56.63 million / $82.08 million. Coco earned $2.3 million during its previews last night, compared to $2.6 million Moana earned last year. If Coco has the same legs, it will end up with $50 million / $73 million. I think Coco will come close to that result, earning $49 million / $71 million during its opening weekend.

Justice League missed expectations last weekend, but the Thanksgiving long weekend should help it avoid a 50% decline. Look for just over $47 million during its second weekend of release for a running tally of close to $180 million after ten days in theaters. The film will get to $250 million domestically and $750 million worldwide, which is about average for the DCEU so far.

Wonder should be the best holdover in the top five, due in part to its family-friendly nature and in part to its A plus from CinemaScore. Look for $25 million over the weekend and $35 million from Wednesday through Sunday. Its running tally will be over $70 million at this point, putting it on pace to hit $100 million domestically. Unless the film costs significantly more to advertise than the $20 million it took to make, it will break even just on its domestic numbers.

Thor: Ragnarok hit $250 million on Tuesday and by the end of business on Sunday, should be at $275 million. With no truly wide releases next weekend and the weekend after that, the film should have no trouble getting to $300 million because the lack of competition will help it hold onto more theaters. On the other hand, The Last Jedi will likely grab so many theaters away from Thor: Ragnarok that it will no longer be truly wide at that point.

Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express should be in a virtual tie for fifth place with just over $12 million and just under $12 million respectively.

As expected, Roman J. Israel, Esq isn’t expanding truly wide; however, it is expanding in more theaters than I anticipated and will be playing in a little more than 1,600 starting tonight. That will be enough to give it a spot in the top ten with just over $5 million over the weekend and just under $8 million from Wednesday through Sunday. This isn’t enough to justify further expansion.

- Coco Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Coco, Justice League, Wonder, Thor: Ragnarok, Murder on the Orient Express, Daddy’s Home 2, Roman J. Israel, Esq., DC Extended Universe
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