Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens

December 14, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi is going to be the biggest hit of the year. I think that’s a very safe prediction. In fact, it will earn more in 2017 alone than any other film, even though it only has 17 days to do so. The hype is practically beyond measure and its reviews are 95% positive with an average score of 8.2 out of 10, so its word-of-mouth could actually be better than its pre-release buzz. Furthermore, it is part of the Star Wars franchise, which is arguably the biggest movie franchise around. It is, if you go by inflation adjusted totals and this is doubly true if you go by inflation adjusted per film average. Before the reviews came in, I was assuming a $200 million opening weekend. In other words, almost exactly in the middle of Rogue One and The Force Awakens. However, with these reviews, I’m bumping my prediction up to $210 million. I suspect once we have the Thursday preview box office, I will be increasing it further.

Ferdinand is the latest animated film from Fox, which means it’s a Disney movie now. The deal for Disney to buy Fox went through today, so that complicates things. Last year, Sing was the animated counter-programming and it was a huge hit. However, it opened the weekend after Rogue One did. On the other hand, in 2015, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip tried to go up against The Force Awakens and that’s didn’t go well for the film. Granted, Ferdinand is a much better movie with reviews that are 82% positive. Its average is only 6.4 out of 10, but that’s still so much better than what The Road Chip earned. On the downside, The Road Chip was the third film in a franchise, so it had lots of name recognition. Add all of these factors together and Ferdinand should have little trouble topping The Road Chip, but even a $20 million opening weekend will be difficult to reach. I think it will get close with about $18 million, which will be enough to reach $100 million before the end of its run.

Coco will finally get pushed out of top spot, but it will still earn just over $10 million over the weekend. This is a sharper decline than Moana went through, but it is dealing with bigger competition and direct competition. This is still a good result and the film will remain on pace for $200 million during its domestic run.

Wonder should earn between $4 million and $5 million over the weekend. It has already reached $100 million domestically, so every dollar the studio gets from now on is pure profit. Even if the studio doubled its initial advertising budget, it has already made enough worldwide to cover every dollar Lionsgate spent on the film.

Justice League should round out the top five with between $3 million and $4 million, but The Disaster Artist might overtake it.

- Star Wars: The Last Jedi Comparisons
- Ferdinand Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Coco, Ferdinand, Justice League, Wonder, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, The Disaster Artist, Star Wars, Alvin and the Chipmunks