Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Holds Off 12 Strong, Den of Thieves

January 21, 2018

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Jumanji will win at the box office for a third straight weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Its weekend total of about $20.04 million is down just 29% from its MLK Holiday numbers, in spite of losing over 100 theaters (its theater average is off just 26%). With $317 million to date, it is now Sony’s most successful non-Spider-Man movie at the domestic box office, not accounting for ticket price inflation. Inflation-adjusted, it’s at number 8 for the studio, and should end up their fifth-best ticket seller ever.

Jumanji’s strength is far from the only good news this weekend.

12 Strong and Den of Thieves are both posting solid numbers this weekend. After tying with $5.66 million on Friday, 12 Strong will pull out to a small win over the rest of the weekend with $16.5 million projected by Warner Bros.. STX can claim a moral victory though, with Den of Thieves substantially out-performing expectations with $15.32 million, and costing less to market, thanks to a more targeted release in 2,432 theaters.

Roadside Attractions is also happy with the $4.7 million debut of Forever My Girl. Playing in 1,115 theaters, the film won’t have been expensive to market, and cost just $3.5 million to make, according to the distributor, so it should prove nicely profitable once ancillary markets are taken into account.

The other notable performer in the top ten is The Greatest Showman, which will be down just 12% to $11 million for the weekend, and has now earned $113 million in total. Remarkably for a wide release movie, its fifth-weekend gross will be higher than its opening weekend. Its legs, like those of Jumanji, are very unusual these days, and perhaps a pointer that films that resonate with audiences can stick around a bit longer than we’ve become accustomed to.

Phantom Thread expanded into wide release this weekend, but won’t crack the top 10. It is projected to earn $3.37 million from 897 theaters, for an average of $3,757 per theater. That’s probably not enough to warrant much more of an expansion unless it picks up a lot of Oscar nominations this coming week.

I, Tonya also technically went into wide release this weekend by expanding from 517 into 799 theaters. It will earn $3 million or so, for $14.1 million to date, but actually slip a couple of places to 15th in the chart. It could pick up some extra steam with a couple of Oscar noms on Tuesday.

One final movie of note this weekend is Mary and the Witch’s Flower, which will launch with an estimated $1.497 million from 161 theaters for GKIDS. That already puts it on the brink of becoming the distributor’s biggest release ever, with only The Tale of the Princess Kaguya ahead of it, at $1.507 million. Witch’s Flower posted that big number in large part because of a special engagement through Fathom Events on Thursday, which earned $1,167,431 from 573 locations.

- Weekend estimates

- 12 Strong Comparisons
- Den of Thieves Comparisons
- Forever My Girl Comparisons

- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Comparisons
- The Post Comparisons
- The Greatest Showman Comparisons
- Paddington 2 Comparisons
- The Commuter Comparisons
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi Comparisons
- Insidious: The Last Key Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Greatest Showman, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, I, Tonya, Den of Thieves, 12 Strong, Forever My Girl, Phantom Thread, Meari to majo no hana