2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actress
February 22, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we have been looking at the four acting categories, ending with Best Lead Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite. ... Most of the categories we will talk about next week are much more competitive.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)
Best Supporting Actress
Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep for The Post
Conclusion: Frances McDormand has won every other major award she’s been nominated for, so she will likely get her second Oscar for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, Two Golden Globes, One BAFTA, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Golden Globe
Notes: I really want Sally Hawkins to win the Oscar, but she’s a long shot. She’s not the longest shot on this year’s list, but she has maybe a 1% chance of winning.
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, Independent Spirit Awards, and Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Four Oscars, Five Golden Globes, Three BAFTAs, Three Independent Spirit Awards, and Four SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Two Independent Spirit Awards, and One SAG
Notes: It has been over 20 years since Frances McDormand won her first Oscar. Oscar voters don’t like to give out awards to the same person too close together, but 20 years is enough time. Additionally, she’s won every major award she’s been nominated for so far, so the Oscars should be more of the same.
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Awards, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is the first performance by Margot Robbie where she’s gotten any serious Awards Season buzz and she’s young, so she has a full career ahead of her. Because of that, it is very unlikely that she will win the Oscar this year.
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, Independent Spirit Awards, and Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, Two Golden Globes, Three BAFTAs, and Two SAGs
Actress's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Saoirse Ronan isn’t even 25 years old, but she's had three Oscar nominations. I would be shocked if she didn’t win an Oscar during her career, but I would also be shocked if she won this year. Soon the Oscar voters will switch from thinking she’s too young to win an Oscar to she's had too many nominations without a win.
Tomatometer Score: 88% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actress's Previous Major Nominations: I’m not counting
Actress's Previous Major Wins: I’m serious.
Notes: Meryl Streep has so many major Awards Season nominations and wins that it is no longer possible to keep track of them all without a super computer. If you want to try at home, here, knock yourself out. The important detail to keep in mind is this, she has so many wins that it will take something special for her to win another Oscar. It will probably happen, but not for a few years.
Filed under: Awards Season, I, Tonya, The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Meryl Streep, Sally Hawkins, Frances McDormand, Saoirse Ronan, Margot Robbie