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Weekend Predictions: Is It Time for Panther to Relinquish Top Spot?

March 8th, 2018

A Wrinkle in Time

There are four wide releases coming out this week, but only one of them, A Wrinkle in Time, has a shot at dethroning Black Panther. Only one other, The Strangers: Prey at Night, has a shot at the top five. The other two, Gringo and The Hurricane Heist, are just hoping to not embarrass themselves. This weekend last year, the top two movies earned nearly $100 million. This year, the top five likely won’t earn that much. 2018 will lose the year-over-year comparison, but hopefully it will be close.

Black Panther has a better than 50/50 chance of earning first place, likely with just over $35 million. This will give it a running tally of just over $555 million, putting it on seventh place on the all-time domestic chart. It remains on pace to become the biggest domestic hit in the MCU.

A Wrinkle in Time had a lot of pre-release buzz, so it is disappointing that its reviews are mixed. A Tomatometer Score of 44% isn’t a disaster, but it will likely hurt its box office chances enough to prevent it from opening in first place. I do think it will be close with just under $35 million, meaning it will likely earn first place on Friday, before settling into second place in Saturday.

The Strangers: Prey at Night is a sequel to a low-budget horror movie that came out almost exactly a decade ago. Normally when this happens, the film would go straight to the home market. So far there are no reviews, but horror films tend to be critic-proof regardless, so this shouldn’t hurt the film’s opening weekend. It should earn third place with just under $10 million, which should be enough to keep the studio happy.

Red Sparrow will fall to fourth place with $8 million over the weekend, for a total of $31 million after ten days of release. It will likely come close to $50 million domestically and should eventually break even.

Game Night and Peter Rabbit will be in a close race for fifth place with close to $7 million each.

The Hurricane Heist is the latest from Entertainment Studios Motion Pictures. The studio has only released four films at semi-wide or wider, two of which bombed. This one is also expected to be a miss. The buzz is quiet and what little there is tends to be on the negative side. Likewise, there’s only one review and it is negative. It will likely miss the Mendoza Line, but will come close with just over $4 million.

That leaves us with Gringo, a Black Comedy from STX Entertainment. Outside of the Bad Moms franchise, the studio hasn’t managed a single $50 million hit, while they’ve had several that have failed to reach $20 million. This one will be in the latter category. Fortunately for STX, this is 100% an Amazon Studios, production and advertising, so they have no skin in the game. Bad news, the film appears to be set for a $3 million opening and that won’t look good on their resume.

- A Wrinkle in Time Comparisons
- The Strangers: Prey at Night Comparisons
- The Hurricane Heist Comparisons
- Gringo Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, A Wrinkle in Time, Red Sparrow, Peter Rabbit, Game Night, Gringo, The Strangers: Prey at Night, The Hurricane Heist, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Bad Moms