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Weekend Predictions: Can Deadpool Come Back to Life?

May 17th, 2018

Deadpool 2

May gets its first monster hit, as Deadpool 2 debuts in theaters this weekend. The film is earning impressive reviews and was widely expected to top the original's opening weekend. Neither of the two other new releases are expected to compete for first place, or even second place, as Avengers: Infinity War has that locked down. Book Club should open in third place with more than $10 million, but that’s not a guarantee. Meanwhile, Show Dogs’ buzz is so quiet that I’m have trouble coming up with a prediction. This weekend last year, Alien: Covenant opened in first place, but with only $36.16 million. If Deadpool 2 doesn’t top that opening night, then I will be shocked. In fact, Deadpool 2 should earn more by itself than the total box office from this weekend last year.

The original Deadpool beat all expectations earning $132 million during its opening weekend. Most people expect Deadpool 2 to open faster; in fact, there are some who are predicting $150 million during its opening weekend. I’m not that bullish, but I do think an opening weekend of between $130 million and $140 million is likely. On the positive end, the reviews are a little better than the original’s reviews were, which were positive enough to get fans excited for a sequel. That said, Avengers: Infinity War is still pulling in a lot of money at the box office, so there’s direct competition to deal with. I’m going to go with $136 million.

Infinity War will give up first place earning about $31 million over the weekend. This is almost exactly a 50% drop-off, which is a little high for this far into a film’s run, but it is dealing with direct competition. On the other hand, the film is already one of the biggest box office hits of all time, so it could disappear from theaters on Friday and the studio would still be happy with its total box office.

Book Club is a hard film to predict, as its reviews are deceptively positive. As I’m writing this, its Tomatometer Score is 79% positive, but the average score given out by critics is just 5.1 out of 10. There are a lot of positive reviews that are barely positive, while many of the negative reviews are aggressively negative. There are not a lot of films aimed at the same target demographic, so that should help the film at the box office. Perhaps it will open in the mid teens, but between $11 million and $12 million is more likely. Last Minute Update: The film’s Tomatometer Score fell from 79% positive to 61% positive. This doesn’t change my prediction, because I thought something like this could happen.

Show Dogs is a tricky film to predict. Live action kids films appear disproportionately on the list of worst openings for a saturation release. (That is to say, films that open in more than 3,000 theaters.) For example, this time last year, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul opened with just $7.13 million in 3,157 theaters. Hoot had the worst such opening with $3.37 million. Furthermore, there are no reviews, which is just another reason to be skeptical about the film’s chances. There’s a real chance it will open below the Mendoza Line, while even the high end expectations have it opening below $10 million. I’m going with just under $8 million during its opening weekend, which should still be enough for fourth place.

This leaves Life of the Party and Breaking In in a close race for fifth place, both earning around $7 million. Life of the Party does have a small advantage.

- Deadpool 2 Comparisons
- Book Club Comparisons
- Show Dogs Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Life of the Party, Show Dogs, Book Club, Breaking In