Weekend Predictions: Will Mamma Mia have an Encore on Top?
July 19, 2018
At the beginning of the month, I didn’t have relatively high hopes for this weekend; I thought it could put up a fight in the year-over-year comparison, but would ultimately lose. That has changed and not for the better. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is still widely expected to earn first place over the weekend, but it might not do well enough to finish with $100 million domestically. The Equalizer 2 won’t match its predecessor, not with the amount of action films struggling in theaters. Finally, Unfriended: Dark Web is opening in barely more than 1,500 theaters and it is going nowhere. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation should have a good hold, but I’m not sure about any of the rest. This weekend last year, Dunkirk opened with just over $50 million and five other films earned $10 million or more over the weekend. There’s no way 2018 will match that. I don’t even think it will be close.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the sequel to Mamma Mia!, a film that earned mixed reviews, but still managed $600 million worldwide. Almost no one expects this movie to match that figure and even its surprisingly good reviews won’t change that. It will still open faster, a decade of ticket price inflation will help, but it won’t sell as many tickets. On the high end, it could come close to $40 million, but it could also struggle to get to $30 million. I’m going with $33 million opening weekend and $90 million domestically.
The Equalizer 2 was originally hoping to match the first film in total. To do that, it would have to open significantly better, because sequels tend to have shorter legs. I don’t think The Equalizer 2 will manage that feat. Its reviews are mixed and the buzz isn’t really that much better. I think it will have a hard time reaching $30 million and on the low end, it might perform worse than Skyscraper did last weekend. I’m going with just over $27 million for its opening weekend.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened better than expected last weekend and since it is a family film with no direct competition, it should have a solid hold this weekend. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed an A minus from CinemaScore, which is soft for a family film. However, it should earn a close third place with $25 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of over $90 million.
It’s a big test for Ant-Man and the Wasp and its chances to reach $200 million domestically. If it falls more than 50% this weekend, then its chances of getting to that milestone are dramatically weaker. If it can earn over $17 million this weekend, then it will get there without even needing a boost from the studio. It has more nearly direct competition, so the lower end is a little more likely. I’m going with $15 million, but I hope I’m a little too pessimistic.
Skyscraper should round out the top five. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore suggest it won’t have great legs, while the direct competition won’t help either. That said, I don’t think it will collapse at the box office and earning $12 million should give it fifth place. If it does struggle, then Incredibles 2 could remain in the top five one more week with between $10 million and $11 million.
Unfriended: Dark Web is the third sequel opening this weekend and like the other two, it won’t live up to its predecessor. Its reviews are better than most teenage slashers earn, but it is only playing in a little more than 1,500 theaters, so that suggests either the studio or theater owners didn’t have a lot of faith in the film. Hopefully it will avoid the Mendoza Line, but anything above $7 million seems out of reach at this point. I’m going with $5 million during its opening weekend.
- Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Comparisons
- The Equalizer 2 Comparisons
- Unfriended: Dark Web Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Incredibles 2, The Equalizer 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Skyscraper, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Unfriended: Dark Web