Friday Estimates: Mamma Mia is Here to Stay

July 21, 2018

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! had a stellar opening earning $14.28 million on Friday, which is enough to put it on pace for nearly $40 million opening. That’s on the very high end of expectations and more than enough to be considered a hit. With strong reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, the film should have good legs. It won’t have as good legs as the original did, but $100 million is an easy goal after this opening.

The Equalizer 2 also beat expectations with an opening day of $13.56 million. This is a little better than the first film’s opening day; however, it won’t have as long legs for a few reasons. Firstly, The Equalizer 2 is a sequel and sequels are almost always more front-loaded. Secondly, this film has Thursday “night” previews that began at 4 pm, so it had a lot more showings during its previews. Thirdly, its a summer release vs. a fall release. Finally, its reviews are weaker. On the other hand, it did earn an A from CinemaScore compared to an A minus for the first film, so that’s an improvement. Look for an opening weekend of $33 million.

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation fell 60% from its opening Friday earning $6.7 million. That’s a sharp drop-off for a family film. It will bounce back over the full weekend, but a 50% drop off to between $22 million and $23 million is likely. It will still make enough to break even before the home market, but I’m still a little disappointed with this result.

Ant-Man and the Wasp landed in fourth place with $4.49 million on Friday. This is right in the middle between good and good enough to get to $200 million. It will depend on how long its trailing legs are and if the studio wants to give it a boost over the top.

Unfriended: Dark Web opened with $1.40 million on Friday. It’s going to avoid the Mendoza Line, but not by enough to really matter. Hopefully it was inexpensive enough to break even eventually.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! Comparisons
- The Equalizer 2 Comparisons
- Unfriended: Dark Web Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Equalizer 2, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Unfriended: Dark Web