Weekend Estimates: Alita Wins Battle for Top Spot, but Production Budget is Winning the War
February 17, 2019
Alita: Battle Angel is topping the weekend chart with an estimated $27.8 million over the three-day weekend and $33.0 million over four. Adding in Thursday’s result gives us a total opening of $41.7 million, which is more than we predicted and we were already a little more bullish than most. Its reviews were bouncing above then sinking below the overall positive level throughout the week, but they seem to have settled on the south side at 58% positive. We won’t get the CinemaScore until Monday, but I suspect it will be substantially better than this and be in the B plus / A minus range. We don’t have solid numbers for its international weekend, but estimates have it in the $40 million range during its second weekend of release. This would have been a great run so far, had the film not cost so much to make.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part will be in second place and is earning an estimated $21.21 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for $26 million over four. This is a little quicker decline than we anticipated, which is bad news after a slower than expected start. The film isn’t doing any better internationally. This weekend, it stumbled in Mexico, earning fourth place with just $1.5 million. Overall, it is estimated to make $12.1 million for a $34.7 million running tally. Its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore are a lot better than its box office run, so franchise fatigue is the most likely culprit for its box office troubles. However, and it is important to make this clear, it will still break even relatively early in its home market run.
Isn’t It Romantic is in third place with an estimated $14.21 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for about $17 million including Monday. This means it will top our $22 million prediction over the full six-day opening, but by a small margin. Like the other two wide releases, this film is earning good reviews, but not great reviews, while Warner Bros. announced it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. It should have solid legs and even though the film cost a little more than I expected, this is still a solid start compared to its $31 million production budget and it should break even sometime during its home market run.
What Men Want should earn fourth place with $11.9 million over the three-day weekend, while it will nearly match our $13 million four-day prediction.
A lot of people thought Happy Death Day 2U would be in a fight for first place, but its estimates only have it in fifth place over the weekend with $9.82 million / $11.46 million. It’s six day opening will be $15.17 million, if estimates hold. This is way lower than what a lot of people thought it would earn, but still higher than its $9 million production budget. Its reviews will neither help nor hurt its legs, while it should still break even sometime in its home market run. That said, it would be a bad idea to extend the franchise to a trilogy, but I could see a few direct-to-video sequels in its future.
As I mentioned yesterday, Fighting With My Family is doing amazingly well with an estimated $132,000 over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for nearly $200,000 from Thursday through Monday. And it is doing this in just four theaters. Next week’s expansion could go well. I don’t expect it to be a monster hit, but it should grab a spot in the top five, if it expands truly wide.
- Alita: Battle Angel Comparisons
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- Isn’t it Romantic Comparisons
- Happy Death Day 2U Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, What Men Want, Fighting With My Family, Happy Death Day 2U, Lego, Happy Death Day