Weekend Estimates: Hollywood Can’t Tame Lion King

July 28, 2019

The Lion King

As expected, The Lion King is easily topping the box office chart this weekend. Unfortunately, it is doing so despite falling much faster than expected, down 61% to an estimated $75.52 million during its third weekend of release for a running tally of $350.78 million. Fortunately, it could still be on pace to reach $500 million domestically, while it earned $142.8 million internationally for totals of $611.9 million internationally and $962.7 million worldwide. It will reach $1 billion shortly, making it yet another profitable disappointment. We’ve had too many of those this year, but I guess it is better than having these films lose money.

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood will top Inglourious Basterds for the best opening in Quentin Tarantino’s career. It is currently estimated to open with $40.35 million over the weekend, giving the film a solid second place. On the downside, it did cost a lot to make, so it will need legs and strong international numbers to break even any time soon. Expectations for the film’s legs are a mixed bag. On the one hand, its reviews are great, but on the other hand, it only managed a B from CinemaScore. As for its international numbers, it hasn’t opened in any major markets, so we will have to wait and see.

Spider-Man: Far From Home is within a rounding error of predictions with an estimated $12.2 million over the weekend, which would lift its total to $344.5 million after four weeks of release. It also became the ninth film in the M.C.U. to crack $1 billion worldwide. In fact, the M.C.U. has earned nearly $5 billion worldwide this year alone.

Toy Story 4 is earning an estimated $9.87 million over the weekend for a total of $395.63 million after six weeks of release. Meanwhile, it is adding $19.4 million internationally for totals of $522.3 million internationally / $917.9 million worldwide. It has a better hold this weekend, so $1 billion worldwide is a lot more likely, especially with its debut in Germany still ahead.

Crawl also held on better than expected, and is set to earn a projected $4.0 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $31.5 million. Paramount’s share of the domestic box office is already on par with its $17 million production budget, so profitability is all but guaranteed at this point. It’s just a matter of when and how much.

The only limited release doing particularly well is Honeyland with an average of $15,000 in two theaters during its opening weekend.

- Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Toy Story 4, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Crawl, Honeyland, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Quentin Tarantino