Weekend predictions: Come Play slight favorite to win the weekend

October 30, 2020

Come Play

Although it’s unlikely to break any records (even pandemic-era ones), Come Play has a good chance to topping the box office this Halloween weekend, according to our model, which puts its opening weekend around $2.2 million. That’s not far enough ahead of Honest Thief for a win to be certain. Anything less would almost certainly point to another down weekend overall at the box office.

Come Play goes into the weekend with three major advantages. First, it’s a horror movie, which (alongside thrillers) has been the leading genre at the box office during the pandemic. Second, it’s coming out on Halloween weekend, which is obviously peak season for creepy movies. And finally, it’s rated PG-13, which means, at least in theory, it can reach a fairly broad audience. Its biggest problem, of course, is the many things people are distracted by at the moment. Coronavirus cases are currently at an all-time high in the United States, and many people are paying close attention to Tuesday’s presidential election.

That adds up to quite a bit of uncertainty going into the weekend, but our model has been fairly stable in its assessment of market strength recently, with roughly a third of the usual audience going to theaters right now. If that proves to be the case again this weekend, Come Play should end up with a little over $2 million.



If Come Play performs in line with expectations, the market as a whole will be down slightly from last weekend. The model currently predicts a weekend total of around $7.6 million for the top six, compared to just shy of $8 million last weekend. An opening of $2.7 million for Come Play would take us into positive territory for the market as a whole, assuming the numbers listed below for the other films playing hold up. The movie most likely to provide help is Alita: Battle Angel, which is getting a re-release this weekend. Our model predicts it’ll earn $401,000, which is just a sliver below Hocus Pocus’ $404,000. The sci-fi action movie has an enthusiastic core audience who would love to see it in theaters again under normal circumstances. If they show up in decent numbers this weekend, and Come Play does a little better than predicted, an up weekend overall is still on the cards.



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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Hocus Pocus, Alita: Battle Angel, Come Play, Honest Thief