Thanksgiving predictions: The Croods tries to perk things up

November 25, 2020

The Croods: A New Age

While nothing can save Thanksgiving as far as the theatrical movie business is concerned, Universal is at least giving remaining moviegoers something to watch this weekend with the release of The Croods: A New Age, a movie that has a bona fide claim to being the biggest release since Tenet’s debut back in August. The animated adventure is a sequel to 2013’s global hit The Croods, which grossed $187 million domestically and $573 million worldwide. This outing might only make a fraction of that amount, but the studio will be hoping to emulate the performance of Trolls World Tour back in March and earn a big extra chunk with a rapid PVOD release.

Given the state of the overall market, our model doesn’t have high hopes for its domestic debut.



Croods 2 suffers the double whammy of having relatively few theaters to play in—2,211 in total, which is not much more than half what might be expected under normal circumstances—and a public that is reluctant to go to the theaters that are open—our pandemic adjustment, an estimate of the number of regular moviegoers who are going to movies now, currently stands at 33%. The model predicts a Friday–Sunday box office gross of around $6.7 million. Under normal circumstances, the Wednesday and Thursday box office for an animated adventure opening on Thanksgiving weekend is about half the Friday–Sunday total, which means The Croods: A New Age should be expected to earn around $10 million by the end of the day on Sunday.

As always, it’s worth pointing out that the model is trying to capture a rapidly-changing market, and this is a Thanksgiving like no other.

Here’s what the model thinks of the rest of the top six:



Theater closures will drag on all films still playing this weekend, but the model is expecting only relatively modest declines, partly due to lack of competition and the fact that the films have been playing for a while. Frozen is a bit of a wildcard. Disney’s recent re-releases haven't done particularly well, so the model is cautious about this one. Its track record is undeniable, so there’s a chance it’ll do considerably better than predicted. It’s fighting a strong headwind, however.

- Theater counts: The Croods set to dominate the Thanksgiving Holiday