Weekend projections: Disney projects $185-million opening for Doctor Strange

May 8, 2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

In the multiverse of potential business for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Disney believes we live in the one where the movie earns $185 million on opening weekend, enough to make it the 11th-most-successful debutant of all time, and second-best opener in the post-pandemic world behind Spider-Man: No Way Home. That would a spectacular debut—better than Captain America: Civil War, for example—and looks like it might be a conservative estimate.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look this morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



An opening of $185 million would represent a multiplier of 5.14 compared to Thursday’s preview numbers, a little behind No Way Home’s 5.2 multiplier when it converted a $50-million preview day into a $260-million weekend. That was a relatively low multiplier by historical standards, and Disney’s Marvel movies have usually had a multiplier closer to 6 (see our weekend predictions column for some comparisons). Disney is assuming a $37.5-million Sunday, with the film already earning $147.5 million by the close of business yesterday. If it does somewhere between $40 million and $45 million today, which seems more likely given the numbers I’m seeing, it should end up around $190 million for the weekend.

We don’t have a model for projecting the weekend based on Friday and Saturday, but if we did I think it would be predicting about $192 million when all is said and done. That would be enough to take it past The Lion King ($191.8 million in 2019) and Avengers: The Age of Ultron ($191.3 million in 2015) to become the 9th-biggest-opener of all time.

Internationally, Multiverse of Madness will earn about $265 million this weekend for $450 million globally. Disney estimates that is the 6th-biggest opening for a US-produced film worldwide. Its biggest markets so far include Korea, with $30 million; the United Kingdom, standing at $24.7 million; and Mexico with $21.5 million.

The audience for the film skews quite male, according to Disney, with a 62%-38% male-female split. It is, of course, performing very well with the core demographics: 27% of the audience is 18–24, and 30% is 25–34. Parents make up 8% of the audience and kids 4% (presumably meaning the kids coming with both their parents!).

The rest of the market is taking a battering this weekend, with most films coming in below our model’s prediction, most likely because of the tough competition with Doctor Strange. The movies outperforming expectations are likely doing well because they’re appealing alternatives to theatergoers who are seeing sold out signs for the main attraction. The continued strength of Everything Everywhere All At Once is notable, with its version of the multiverse bagging another $3.3 million this weekend, taking the film past $40 million in total. It’s now A24’s fourth-highest earner, and is well on its way to being their best ever.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time biggest weekends - All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash,