Weekend projections: Wakanda Forever headed to second-best weekend of 2022

November 13, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will open with about $180 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. That’ll give it the record for the biggest weekend in November, beating the $158 million earned by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire back in 2013. But it looks like it will just fall short of Doctor Strange’s $187.4 million, which stands as best opening weekend of 2022.

Here’s how the domestic numbers looked as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

If Black Panther makes $180 million, it’ll marginally beat our Friday-morning prediction of $173 million, meaning that it’s had decent legs so far for a Marvel franchise movie. With $150 million internationally, it’ll have racked up something like $330 million globally by the end of the weekend. That means it’ll also have the 2nd-highest global opening of 2022 so far.

The only blemish on its record is that it’s behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which rode the coattails of Spider-Man: No Way Home to a massive opening back in May. The difference between the two might be down to a slightly more favorable opening date for Doctor Strange, and Black Panther will have the benefit of very limited competition over the next few weeks as we move into a subdued Holiday Season. That should help its legs, and it could still end up the 2nd-highest-grossing film of the year, although it’ll be well behind Top Gun: Maverick’s $716.7 million unless a miracle happens.

Creatively and financially, Wakanda Forever looks like the shot in the arm the Marvel Cinematic Universe needed.

Most of the remainder of the films playing this week all fell roughly in line with expectations with the exception of Black Adam, which was obviously hit by competition from Black Panther, and Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile. The family musical is beginning to look like it could have really good legs into the Holiday Season, and it’ll fall just 5% this weekend. Its $3.2 million is actually more than it made two weekends ago, and its theater average has increased on each of the last two weekends. Its biggest issue is that it still is earning only around $1,300 per theater, so it’ll take some faith from theater owners if it’s going to extend its run in enough theaters to really push up its total earnings. It has $40 million so far.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time biggest weekends
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Marvel Cinematic Universe