It is not a great week for limited releases. There are some that are certainly worth checking out, like Braid and The Wild Pear Tree. However, the film earning the loudest buzz, Velvet Buzzsaw, is only earning good reviews and not great reviews, but that should be good enough for Netflix.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awards nominations. There were definitely some surprise nominees this year, but that also meant there were some unfortunate snubs as well. The overall leader was Carol, which just opened this past weekend. This is great timing and should help its box office numbers, as well as its chances throughout Awards Season. Its six nominations were one ahead of Beasts of No Nation and Spotlight. (One of Spotlight's was the Robert Altman Award, which has no nominations, just one winner.)
It is not a particularly strong week for limited releases, as there are none that really jump out as potential breakout successes. Man Up is earning some of the best reviews, but it is the wrong genre for limited release, as Rom Coms rarely do well enough in limited release to expand wide. (On a side note, one of the exceptions was My Big Fat Greek Wedding. The trailer for the sequel just came out. Nearly 15 years is a long time between the original and the sequel.) James White feels a lot more like a traditional limited release, one that can do really well in the art house circuit.
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