December 11th, 2016
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Pete’s Dragon opened in late summer and did well domestically. Had it done as well internationally, then it would have been on pace to break even sometime during its home market run. Sadly, it did much worse internationally. Perhaps this means the movie only did well here due to nostalgia for the original film. Is this the case? Or does the movie work on its own?
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August 14th, 2015
It is both a very busy week with nearly a dozen releases on this week's list and a disappointing one. The slate of new releases is really weak, with only Mistress America having a decent shot at box office success. There are a couple of other releases that have the reviews to do well, but are playing on VOD. Of these, People Places Things is my choice for Video on Demand Pick of the Week, although I'm hoping Final Girl is better than its early reviews would indicate.
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August 1st, 2015
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 30th, 2015
Interstellar is the latest film from Christopher Nolan, a director who has performed amazingly well at the box office. He's also never directed a film that earned bad reviews. Is this film as good as his past record? Or are there flaws starting to show in his directing style?
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October 31st, 2014
October was a better than expected month with the overall box office keeping pace with October of 2013, for the most part. (The last weekend will be terrible, but that's because of Halloween.) We were able to close the gap somewhat in the year-over-year comparison, at least by a little bit. So how will November do compared to October. Let's put it this way. There are only seven films opening wide this month. Of those, Beyond the Lights will likely not make an impact at the box office. Every other film has at least a reasonable shot at $100 million. More than half the of the films opening this month could hit $200 million. Leading the way will be The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, which could hit $400 million. The only problem is when book franchises split the final installment into two parts, the first part tends to be weaker at the box office. Interstellar is a big question mark. On the low end, it could make just over $100 million, while on the high end, just over $300 million is within reach. That's a wide range of expectations. On the downside, last November, there were two movies to reach $400 million: Catching Fire and Frozen. On the other hand, there was only one other movie to make more than $100 million, Thor: The Dark World, so perhaps the depth this year will help 2014 come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 7th, 2014
The Hunger Games came out in 2012 with high expectations. Many thought it was going to be a good movie and do very well, especially for a spring time release. Instead, it broke records, including best mid-night screening for a non-sequel, biggest March weekend, biggest weekend for a non-sequel, etc. And thanks to its high quality, it had better than expected legs. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire came out last fall and earned even more money at the box office. Is it as good as its predecessor? Or can it be even better?
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July 26th, 2013
There are a huge number of limited releases this week, but the vast majority of them are not earning strong enough reviews to suggest they will thrive in limited release. There are some, like Extracted, that are earning positive reviews, but there are so few reviews, that it is impossible to judge the movie. Drug War is earning the best reviews and it might find an audience. However, it is Blue Jasmine that has the best shot at earning some measure of mainstream success.
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