This graph shows Mary Elizabeth Winstead’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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Robert Redford’s swan song, The Old Man and the Gun, leads a group of limited releases this week. It should be the biggest hit on this week’s list and could even become an Awards Season contender. Bad Reputation could also open really well, for a documentary.
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John Hollar, a struggling NYC artist is forced to navigate the small middle-American town he left behind when news of his mother's illness brings him home. Back in the house he grew up in, John is immediately swept up in the problems of his dysfunctional family, high-school rival and an over-eager ex-girlfriend as he faces impending fatherhood with his girlfriend in New York.
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It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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There's a lot of films that might be opening in limited release this week, but many of them have not enough reviews to have a Tomatometer Score. (I'll be skipping most of those.) Worse still, many that do are earning terrible reviews. There are some that are worth watching, like Alex of Venice, Felix and Meira, and Tangerines. On the other hand, I wouldn't bet on any of them finding success at the box office.
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This week, the limited release report is practically the Video on Demand report, as nearly all limited releases are also playing on Video on Demand. The rest are all documentaries, which rarely earn any measure of mainstream success. Worse still, most of the non-documentaries are earning bad reviews, so their box office chances are even worse. Faults is probably the film with the best chance at finding an audience in theaters, but that's not saying much. These Final Hours is also earning great reviews, but it doesn't have the star power that Faults has. Of the documentaries, both An Honest Liar and Merchants of Doubt are worth checking out.
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There are not many first run releases coming out on the home market this week, but two of them, Life of Pi and Rise of the Guardians, rose to Pick of the Week status. For that honor, we have to turn to an older release, Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, which celebrated its 25th Anniversary by coming out on Blu-ray for the first time. Yes, it is shovelware, but it is still the best movie on this week's list. If you don't have the DVD already and really don't like Pan & Scan, you might want to wait till Disney fixes the mix-up with the DVD portion of the Combo Pack.
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The Independent Spirit Awards has a special place in the Awards Season. The nominations are the unoffficial start of Awards Season, but the actual awards aren't given out until Oscar weekend, so they are the beginning at the end of Awards Season. They also help out a lot of limited releases that would otherwise not get enough buzz, although they are not so good at predicting Oscar wins. This year, two films tied for most nominations, Moonrise Kingdom and The Silver Linings Playbook, both of which earned five nominations. They weren't the only films to earn multiple nominations though.
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All Acting Credits
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