The X-Men franchise has an impressive track record of Memorial Day openings, starting with X-Men: The Last Stand, which became the first film to gross $100 million over the 3-day part of the long weekend back in 2006. Days of Future Past grossed $90 million this weekend two years ago. In that context, a 3-day opening of $65 million for X-Men: Apocalypse is very much on the low end of expectations, although not too far behind the $72 million we were expecting earlier in the week. It’s a start that points towards a total domestic box office between $130 million and $150 million, even with the extra boost of another $15 million or so expected on Monday. That leaves the international markets with a lot to do, and the news overseas hasn’t been that great, with about $115 million in the bank after most markets opened last weekend.
May 27th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse started off the Memorial Day long weekend with $8.2 million in 3,565 theaters during its Thursday previews. This is well back from Captain America: Civil War or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both of which earned more than $25 million. However, it is better than Days of Future Past, which earned $8.1 million, so there's a chance it will cracked $100 million over the four-day weekend. I think the reviews will be a major hindrance in that goal, unless fans like it a whole lot more than critics did. This time tomorrow, we will have the opening day numbers, as well as its CinemaScore, so we will have a better grasp on its opening weekend run.
May 26th, 2016
It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
May 19th, 2016
There are two films opening wide next week: X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Neither is earning good reviews, but one of them has to be the number one film of the weekend. I think Apocalypse is the clear favorite here and it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for X-Men: Apocalypse.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
May 1st, 2016
April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)