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Daily Domestic Chart for Friday June 24th, 2016

  MovieGross% ChangeTheatersTotal GrossDays
1 (1) Finding Dory $23,207,157 +33% 4,305   $236,525,059 8
2 new Independence Day: Resurgence $16,800,000   4,068   $16,800,000 1
3 new The Shallows $6,850,000   2,962   $6,850,000 1
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Friday Estimates: Dory swims to $23.21 million, Resurgence shrinks to $16.8 million

June 25th, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory held on to first place on Friday and thatís not good news, at least not for the box office as a whole. The film pulled in $23.21 million last night, which puts it on track to earn approximately $76 million. We predicted $74 million, so Iím calling this a victory. This will give the film close to $290 million after just ten days of release and puts it on pace to reach $300 million late Monday / early Tuesday. It will obviously hit $400 million at this pace, and it could become the first film of 2016 and the first animated film of all time to reach the $500 million milestone. Thatís not a sure thing, but I think itís at least 50/50 at this point. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Independence Day Doesn't Really Surge

June 24th, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

Independence Day: Resurgence started its box office run with $4 million during Thursday previews. That's not good. That's twice as much as the $2 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned a few weeks ago, but half as much as the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse earned the week before that. It is identical to Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened last summer. If you compare its opening to all three films, taking into account Out of the Shadows' younger target audience and Apocalypse's Fanboy nature, then Resurgence will likely opened with between $50 million and $60 million. Hopefully it is performing better internationally. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Neon Lights Shine Bright on Limited Releases

June 24th, 2016

The Neon Demon

Wow. This is a great week for limited releases. Not only are there a few releases earning a lot of buzz (The Neon Demon, Swiss Army Man, and Wiener Dog). There are also even more movies earning 100% positive reviews. Of those, Hunt for the Wilderpeople is the one that I think will have the best chance of breakout success. More...

Contest: Big Fun Prizes

June 24th, 2016

The BFG

July begins next weekend and there are three films hoping to make an impact at the box office. The Purge: Election Year might not hit $50 million domestically, but that's fine given its low production budget. The Legend of Tarzan should do a little better, but it had a troubled production and it cost more than $150 million to make. That leaves The BFG, a.k.a., the Big Friendly Giant. It is a live action family film released by Disney. It's aimed at too young an audience to be a monster hit, but it has a shot at $100 million, which is more than the other two films can say. As a result, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The BFG.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviewed DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids DVDs. I'm out of mystery box items, unless I find some more later on. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts: Independence Day Launches in 4,068 Locations

June 23rd, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

Back by popular demand, here are this weekendís official theater counts and estimates for next weekend. The highlights: Finding Dory remains in widest release this weekend, in 4,305 theaters. Independence Day: Resurgence is the widest opener in 4,068 venues. Among next weekís wide releases, The Legend of Tarzan has top billing, in 3,450 theaters. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will New Releases Challenge Top Spot? Or Will Dory just Keep Swimming?

June 23rd, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

This is the last weekend in June and there are three wide releases hoping to challenge Finding Dory for top spot. I donít think any of them will come close. Independence Day: Resurgence is the only new release with a shot at first place and it should come out on top on Friday. It better win on Friday, or the month will end on a soft note. The Shallows and Free State of Jones will be fighting for fourth place. The Shallows cost less than $20 million, so a fourth place finish wouldnít be a bad start. On the other hand, Free State of Jones cost $65 million to make, so a fourth place finish would be a disaster. Also opening this week is The Neon Demon. It isnít opening wide, but it is opening wide enough to compete for a slot in the top ten. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that earned less than $50 million combined. On the other hand, the top two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million. Can the top four this year out-earn the top four last year? I think they can. We might get an actual win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Dory Earns $50 Million to Dump Warcraft

June 22nd, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory started its international run in first place with $50.0 million in 29 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned second place with 18.15 million over the weekend and $18.18 million including previews. This is not a lot of money compared to last week's winner; however, China is not a market that is kind to animated films. Before this year, no animated movie had earned more than $100 million in China and the current record is held by Zootopia at $235.77 million. Zootopia only made $23.99 million during its opening weekend in China, so this isn't a bad start for Finding Dory. Additionally, Finding Dory doubled Zootopia's opening in Australia with $7.63 million on 524 screens. It also performed very well in Argentina ($3.5 million) and in Russia ($3.25 million on 1,220 screens). It is still too early to tell if Finding Dory will top $1 billion worldwide, but this start gives box office watchers a reason to be optimistic. More...

Contest: Remember Me: Winning Announcement

June 22nd, 2016

Finding Dory

The winners of our Remember Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Finding Dory opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Dory Finds Her Way to the Top with $31,373

June 21st, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory not only earned first place on the weekend box office chart, but it also earned first place on the theater average chart with $31,373 per theater. Homeless Billionaire was next with $19,771 in its lone theater. Tickled earned an average of $10,949 in two theaters. Meanwhile, Central Intelligence was right behind with an average of $10,130. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dory Dominates with $135.06 Million, Central is Solid with $35.54 Million

June 21st, 2016

Finding-Dory

In our prediction column, I said I wanted the top two films to earn a combined total of $150 million to $170 million. Finding Dory's and Central Intelligence's combined opening weekend was $170.60 million. The overall box office was 53% higher than last weekend at $233 million. However, this was still 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Finding Dory did do better than either Jurassic World or Inside Out individually, but couldn't compete with their combined totals. 2016 is still ahead of 2015, but its lead was cut by a third at $150 million or 3.1%. That said, 2016 hit $5 billion a week faster than 2015 did and its lead of $5.06 billion to $4.91 billion is still substantial. More...

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