Weekend Estimates: Hitman’s Bodyguard Tops Chart with Solid $21.6 Million

August 20th, 2017

We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them. More...

Friday Estimates: Bodyguard Hits Its Target with $8.0 million

August 19th, 2017

The Hitman’s Bodyguard is giving the late summer box office a bit of a boost, earning $8.0 million on Friday. This is far from a monster opening, but assuming it has average legs, it will become a midlevel hit by the end. This assumption seems safe, as its reviews are only 40% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest below average legs; however, the next two weeks are particularly bad when it comes to new releases, so the lack of competition should help out. The film has a better than 50/50 shot at over $20 million over the weekend, but even if it just misses that mark, it is still great for this time of year and Lionsgate should be happy with this result. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: California Dreaming

August 18th, 2017

It isn’t a particularly busy week for the art-house and VOD market, but there are several films that are earning good, even great reviews. California Typewriter, Marjorie Prime, Patti Cake$, and Dave Made a Maze are all worth checking out and that’s not the entire list. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Hitman has $1.65 million Night, Logan is not as Lucky

August 18th, 2017

The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $1.65 million during previews, which is on the high end of expectations. This is good for this time of year, but its reviews suggests its legs will be on the low end of average, so a $16 million opening is the new target. Anything above that will be bode well for its chances for the next couple of weekends when there is little to no competition. The film reportedly cost $30 million to make, so it will need about $55 million domestically for Lionsgate’s share to top that. That’s probably out of reach. On the other hand, it will only need close to $100 million worldwide to break even eventually. This opening night suggests it will get there. More...

Contest: Leap of Faith

August 18th, 2017

There is one wide release coming out next weekend, Leap!, and it only has about a 50/50 chance of opening in more than 2,000 theaters. Birth of the Dragon and All Saints are opening in less, but both have a shot at the top five. In fact, All Saints could be the biggest new release of the weekend, as faith-based films are notoriously unpredictable. However, I’m going with Leap! as the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest, because All Saints is just too unpredictable. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Leap!.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Theater Counts: Hitman’s Bodyguard Arrives in 3,377

August 18th, 2017

Summer continues to wind down this weekend with The Hitman’s Bodyguard the widest new release, in 3,377 theaters. We don’t have an official count for Logan Lucky, but it is expected to open in something a little over 3,000. Both figures are decent for the type of film, but well short of the 4,000 theaters that is becoming the benchmark for a big release. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Hitman Score a Hit? Or has Summer Split?

August 17th, 2017

There are a couple of new releases coming out in wide release: The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Logan Lucky. The two films have vastly different Tomatometer Scores, but similar box office potentials. Unfortunately, neither is expected to become a hit and there’s a chance whichever of them earns first place will do so with the lowest box office result of the year so far, currently held by Split’s third weekend of release. If the yearly low record isn’t broken this weekend, it will almost certainly be broken next weekend. This weekend last year, Suicide Squad earned first place with just over $20 million. This is more than any one film will make this weekend. Additionally, there were six films that earned $10 million or more last year, while there are only three that have a shot at that milestone this week. 2017 is going to lose to 2016 yet again. More...

International Box Office: Wolf Warrior 2 Score Threepeat with $86 million

August 17th, 2017

Wolf Warriors 2 remained the top draw on the international market pulling in $86 million in six markets for totals of $685.52 million internationally and $687.45 million worldwide. Almost all of this has been earned in its native China, where it added $85.10 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $683.80 million. It is currently the biggest ever film in China, both in terms of local currency and American dollars, topping the previous record-holder, The Mermaid. It will have no trouble getting to $800 million worldwide and if it can find audiences outside China, it might get to $900 million or even $1 billion. There’s very little competition for the next few weeks, so that could be the boost the film needs to get to that milestone. It is a long shot, but something to keep an eye on. More...

Contest: Go Nuts: Winning Announcement

August 17th, 2017

The winners of our Go Nuts contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Annabelle: Creation’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Ingrid Westward Trip nets $45,100

August 16th, 2017

Ingrid Goes West opened in first place on the theater average chart with an average of $45,100 in three theaters. This is the third best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five) and The Beguiled ($57,323 in four). A24 had another success with Good Time earning an average of $31,275 in four theaters. The Trip to Spain opened with an average of $15,102 in three theaters, which is in the middle of the franchise average so far. Finally there’s Wind River, which was the only holdover in the $10,000 club. It managed an average of $13,615 in 45 theaters and already has nearly $1 million in limited release. More...