Friday Estimates: Dawn of a New Day for Last Knight

June 24th, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight suffered a 48% plummet on Thursday to earn just $8.14 million; however, it bounced back on Friday with $13.69 million. If we again compare this to Dark of the Moon, which is the last film in the franchise to open on a Wednesday, we get mixed messages. The Last Knight fell faster on Thursday (48% to 43%) but bounced back more on Friday (68% to 53%). If we assume The Last Knight will continue to outperform Dark of the Moon over the rest of the weekend, then it will earn about $42 million over the three-day weekend and $66 million over five. This is the worst opening in the franchise by a wide margin, but there is good news for Paramount, as the film earned $41.46 million during its first day in China, and $47.55 million if you include previews. The international numbers will save this film and justify more sequels. More...

Contest: Me Me Me

June 23rd, 2017

Despicable Me 3 is going to win next weekend’s box office race. There’s no doubt about that. In fact, it will make more than Baby Driver and The House will make combined. Because of this, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Despicable Me 3.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Sick and Tired

June 23rd, 2017

Not many limited releases are earning any real buzz this week. The Beguiled has the best pedigree and its reviews might be good enough to help it thrive in theaters. The Bad Batch is the biggest in terms of theaters, but its box office potential is close to zero. This leaves The Big Sick as the best new release. That said, if you are not near one of the five theaters it is playing, you could always stay home and binge GLOW on Netflix. I reviewed it this week and it is worth the praise. More...

Theater Counts: Transformers Dominates New Releases

June 23rd, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight opened in 4,069 theaters on Wednesday, and will continue in those venues through the weekend. With most of those theaters coming from The Mummy, It Comes at Night, and Baywatch, and no other wide releases, there is still plenty of room for the likes of Wonder Woman and 47 Meters Down to maintain or increase their theater count. Next week will be a lot tougher. More...

Stronger Trailer

June 23rd, 2017

Real-life drama starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Tatiana Maslany opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Step Trailer

June 22nd, 2017

Documentary opens August 4 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Predictions: Last Knight Opened Last Night with $15.65 million

June 22nd, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start on Wednesday earning only $15.65 million. That’s not a great start. Fortunately, Cars 3 and Wonder Woman should have strong holds this weekend and that will help the overall box office numbers. They probably won’t help enough to top this weekend last year in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close. More...

International Box Office: The Mummy Tumbles, Still Tops Chart with $53.0 million

June 22nd, 2017

The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million. More...

Contest: Vroom Vroom: Winning Announcement

June 22nd, 2017

The winners of our Vroom Vroom contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Cars 3’s opening weekend were... More...

Tuesday Night Previews: Last Knight Finishes Last Among Transformers with $5.5 million

June 21st, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start with $5.5 million during Tuesday night previews. This is the worst in the franchise, not counting the first film, which opened before previews like this were commonplace. As for more recent comparisons, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned an identical amount, but that opened on a Friday, so it is not a great comparison. Perhaps Dark of the Moon is a better comparison, as it was also a Wednesday release. It earned $13.5 million in 2011, $5.5 million on Tuesday and another $8 million after midnight. (Studios no longer split the preview box office up like that.) If The Last Knight has the same legs, then it would open with $40 million / $66 million over the three-day / five-day weekend. Unfortunately, its reviews are simply awful at just 16% positive. Furthermore, early reports suggest the audience reaction won’t be much better. It’s too soon to tell if this film is going to underperform already low expectations, but this is not a good sign. More...