The story of the six-member crew of the International Space Station that is on the cutting edge of one of the most important discoveries in human history: the first evidence of extraterrestrial life on Mars. As the crew begins to conduct research, their methods end up having unintended consequences and the life form proves more intelligent than anyone ever expected.
Power Rangers easily dominated the other two new releases during Thursday previews earning $3.6 million. In fact, this is barely lower than the $3.7 million Kong: Skull Island earned just a couple of weeks ago. Does this mean Power Rangers will open with a similar amount, say $60 million? No. The film’s reviews are much weaker and the film has a much stronger Fanboy Effect. It does have a real shot at $40 million over the weekend, but our $37 million prediction seems like a safe bet at the moment. If the film is earning better legs, we will adjust this figure tomorrow.
There are three wide releases this week, but none of them have a shot at topping Beauty and the Beast at the box office. In fact, all three films combined won’t make as much as Beauty and the Beast does this weekend. Of the three wide releases, Power Rangers has the best chance of box office success and it does have a shot at $100 million domestically. Life could become a midlevel hit and since it likely cost a lot less to make, it could be a bigger financial success. Finally there’s CHiPs, which has gained no traction with audiences. It will likely miss the top five. This weekend last year, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opened with a then March record of $166.01 million. Nothing playing this weekend will match that. Beauty and the Beast might not make half that. Fortunately, 2017 has a $100 million lead on 2016, so one bad weekend in the year-over-year comparison won’t do too much damage.
There are three wide releases next weekend: Power Rangers, Life, and CHiPs. However, none of them are expected to match Beauty and the Beast’s second weekend of release. That said, Power Rangers is widely expected to be the biggest of the three films and it is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Power Rangers.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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