Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Trolls can’t be Toppled, but Bruce Lee Fights His Way onto the Chart

July 23rd, 2020

There was a major shake-up on the DEG Watched at Home chart this week when compared to last week. Just kidding. The same five releases remained in the top five, just in a slightly different order. This means Trolls World Tour remained locked in first place on the chart and will likely remain there until Scoob! comes out. Universal also led the way with four releases in the top twenty, but unlike last week, it was in a three-way tie with Paramount and Sony. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Invisible Man Outruns Sonic The Hedgehog

June 25th, 2020

We have a new champ on the DEG Watched at Home chart, as The Invisible Man finally pushed Sonic the Hedgehog out of first place. That wasn’t the only change in the top five. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Déjà Vu for the DEG

June 11th, 2020

There were no new releases in the top five of the DEG Watched at Home Chart this week. In fact, the top five were exactly the same as they were last week, right down to the order the were in. This isn’t a huge shock, as the new DVD / Blu-ray releases and VOD releases were far from stellar, so there wasn’t anything new to challenge those at the top of the chart. Sonic the Hedgehog remains one of the few bright spots in a movie industry that has been hit hard by the pandemic. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Invisible Man Avoids the Spotlight

June 4th, 2020

The Invisible Man came out on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week, but that wasn’t enough to overtake Sonic the Hedgehog on the DEG Watched at Home chart this week. Sonic the Hedgehog has done so well at the box office and now on the home market that I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an army of interns at Paramount Pictures going over every Sega video game ever made to see what else can be turned into a movie. My top three choices are, in alphabetical order, Altered Beast, Arabian Fight, and Golden Axe. Streets of Rage did just get a new installment, so the property could be hot. I could see that video game franchise successfully turned into a Rumble in the Bronx-style film. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Sony Scores Again

May 14th, 2020

Sony continues to have a good year, given the circumstances. They just chalked up a win on the DEG Watched at Home Chart for the third week in a row. However, this week it was Bloodshot that topped the chart by rocketing up the chart 11 places. Why the massive jump? It debuted on DVD / Blu-ray. We haven’t seen an increase that dramatic since we’ve been tracking this chart; however, this is also a film that was still in theaters when Covid-19 forced it into VOD early, so there’s mitigating circumstances. More...

DEG Watched at Home Chart: Reruns Dominate Home Viewing

May 7th, 2020

For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Bad Boys Continues Sony’s Good Year

April 30th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life rose to first place on this week’s DEG watched at home chart, thanks to its release on DVD and Blu-ray. This wasn’t Sony’s only entry in the in the top five. In fact, the studio was tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Skywalker Remains Top Draw

April 23rd, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on top of the chart on this week’s DEG Watched at Home Chart. In fact, the top five were nearly identical to the top five from last week, so we are going to spend some more time looking lower down the list. More...

DEG Watched At Home Chart: Skywalker Rides High

April 16th, 2020

With Covid-19 still running high, and the industry’s focus shifted to what people are watching at home, we’re please to announce the launch of a new chart here at The Numbers. The DEG Watched at Home Top 20 chart, produced by our friends at the Digital Entertainment Group, looks at the most popular films being watched at home each week. This includes traditional DVD and Blu-ray sales, digital sales (“EST”), and digital rentals (“tVOD”), with rankings based on the total consumer spending for a given title across those four categories. Note that it does not currently include PVOD releases, like the recent debut of Trolls: World Tour. The weekly chart will be published each Thursday for the week ending the previous Saturday.

This week, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker led the way, as it did last week. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, because even though the film earned the weakest reviews of the live-action Star Wars films, it is still a Star Wars film. More...

Home Market Releases for March 17th, 2020

March 17th, 2020

It’s a relatively good week on the home market, as we have Jumanji: The Next Level coming out. On the other hand, that’s the only big release of the week, at least on physical media. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is hitting Video on Demand. Neither are Pick of the Week contenders, although Jumanji could get there when the screener arrives. As for the best of the rest, The Point: Ultimate Edition and Superman: Red Son Blu-ray / 4K Ultra HD are worth checking out. The Point came out a while ago, but the screener arrived late. That said, it is still the best release on this week’s list. More...

Home Market Releases for March 3rd, 2020

March 5th, 2020

It’s a terrible week on the home market with almost no prime new releases. In fact, if there weren’t a couple of late screeners to talk about and several secondary VOD titles, the main list would be very short. The week is so weak that Jojo Rabbit is really the only choice for Pick of the Week, even though it came out about a month ago. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: 2020 Suffers Its First Loss

February 11th, 2020

It was bound to happen, I was just hoping it wouldn’t happen this soon, but 2020 suffered its first loss in the year-over-year comparison. Birds of Prey failed to live up to the very low end of expectations opening with just $33 million. On the positive side, the holdovers held on really well and that helped limit losses. In fact, the overall box office was $95 million this weekend, up 18% from last weekend. That said, this is still down 16% from the same weekend last year and this number is a lot more important. Year-to-date, 2020 is still ahead of 2019 by $62 million or 6.2% at $1.07 billion to $1.01 billion, so we clearly shouldn’t be panicking this early on, but there are some troubling signs at the box office. More...

Weekend Estimates: Harley Quinn Can’t Lead Her Film to Box Office Success

February 9th, 2020

Birds of Prey is missing even the very low end of expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $33.25 million. The film is earning good reviews and a decent B plus rating from CinemaScore, and it is also the cheapest installment in the D.C.E.U., so this start isn’t disastrous. On the other hand, it is struggling more internationally with just $48 million on 22,362 screens in 78 markets. Part of this has to do with the coronavirus, which has caused major disruptions in many Asian countries. And I’m not just talking about the entertainment industry. So far close to 1,000 people have died, which is a major disaster. Although to put this into perspective, this flu season, about 10,000 people have died in the United States alone. More...

Friday Estimates: Are We Witnessing 2020’s First Loss?

February 8th, 2020

Ouch. Birds of Prey only managed $13.03 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just $32 million to $33 million over the full weekend. This is miles below expectations; it’s even lower than projections based on Thursday’s previews. However, it isn’t a bad opening for a film that cost $75 million to make. Add in the film’s reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore and it should have decent legs, especially with the holiday next weekend. It will be the weakest installment in the D.C.E.U. and I think this is clear evidence that making the film R-rated was a mistake. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Quinn Capture Audience’s Attention?

February 7th, 2020

It’s the first weekend of February and the only wide release is Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), the latest installment in the D.C.E.U. There is no question that it will earn first place over the weekend. There is some question about how well it will do during its opening weekend, as ticket pre-sales have been weaker than anticipated. This weekend last year, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opened with $34.12 million. Birds of Prey will top that; however, it needs to come close to matching the combined openings of last year’s top two films, The Lego Movie 2 and What Men Want, in order to have a real shot at leading 2020 to a victory in the year-over-year competition. That doesn’t seem as likely as it did last week. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys Battle in Brazil

February 6th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place on the international box office chart, again, this time earning 31.21 million on 13,180 screens in 81 markets for totals of $143.09 million internationally and $291.15 million worldwide. The film has now made more internationally than the first film in the franchise earned worldwide. The film’s biggest new release of the weekend came in Brazil where it earned first place with $1.71 million on 810 screens. The film’s biggest holdover was France where it was down just 39% to $2.75 million on 614 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $8.10 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys Still Feeling Good, New Releases are Bad and Worse

February 4th, 2020

The Super Bowl turned out to be a good game, at least according to the score sheet. This perhaps hurt the box office over the weekend, as Bad Boys for Life fell a little faster than expected. That said, it still dominated the box office with a huge lead over the second place film, 1917. Meanwhile, the two new releases, Gretel and Hansel and The Rhythm Section, both bombed to varying degrees. The overall box office fell 33% from last weekend, hitting $81 million; however, an extreme decline like this is to be expected on Super Bowl weekend. More importantly, this is 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that helped 2020 extend its lead over 2019 to 8.9% / $77 million at $945 million to $868 million. A few more weeks like this and I’ll actually become optimistic about the year’s box office chances. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys Enjoy Life at the Top

February 2nd, 2020

Bad Boys for Life is extending its run at the top of the chart the weekend with Sony projecting a total of $17.675 million as of Sunday morning. That’s down 48% from last weekend, which is another solid hold, and takes the film to the brink of $150 million at the domestic box office—it’s expected to have around $148 million by close of business. The studio is baking in a big 71% drop today thanks to competition with the Super Bowl, so it may end up doing just a little better than predicted. More...

Friday Estimates: Bad Boys Beat Up Newcomers

February 1st, 2020

If Friday’s estimates are any indication, then the weekend will be a little weaker than anticipated. Bad Boys for Life will easy lead the way after pulling in $5.19 million on Friday. Sony is projecting $17 million based on this result, which is a little lower than our $19 million to $20 million prediction, but still a great hold for a mainstream action film on Super Bowl weekend. This won’t be enough to get the movie to $150 million by the end of the weekend and it likely ends the film’s chances at $200 million domestically. That said, it is still going to be the biggest hit in the franchise by the end of Saturday, so there’s still plenty of reasons to celebrate. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys can’t Be Beat

January 30th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place on the international box office chart with $44.04 million on 12,933 screens in 76 markets for totals of 96.5 million internationally and $217.33 million worldwide. This is already more than the first film in the franchise earned in total. However, before we get too excited, it did come out 25 years ago and not only does this film have 25 years of inflation behind it, it had huge growth in the international market to help it out as well. The film’s biggest new market was Russia, where it earned $5.02 million in 1,466 theaters, but it also had an impressive debut in France with $4.53 million on 619 screens. The film earned first place in both markets. As far as holdovers are concerned, the movie has already earned $10.82 million in the U.K., including $3.59 million in 559 theaters this past weekend. It is doing even better in Germany, if you take into account the relative size of the two markets, with $3.30 million on 669 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.55 million. On the downside, the film is rapidly running out of markets to open in, so it won’t remain in the top five for too much longer, but it has already earned enough to ensure a healthy profit in the end. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys’ Box Office Boon Balances Mixed Opening Results

January 28th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life saved the box office this weekend earning $34.01 million, which was more than The Gentlemen and The Turning earned combined. Granted, the overall box office was still down 27% from last weekend, but it is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. More importantly, it was 23% higher than the same weekend last year and this helped 2020 continue its early winning streak. 2020 is now ahead of 2019’s early pace by 8.2% / $63 million at $828 million to $765 million. It is still way to early to make any projections for the end of the year, but any lead 2020 can build up now will help it during the slower stretches of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys are Doing Well

January 26th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life will remain in first place on the weekend chart with an estimated $34.0 million, which is down just 46% from the film’s opening weekend. This amazing hold not only beat predictions by a significant margin, it helped the film blow past $100 million yesterday. Its running tally will sit at $120.0 million at the end of the weekend, assuming the estimate holds. Internationally, the film held even better, earning $42 million on 12,700 screens in 58 markets for a total of $95 million so far. This includes a $4.7 million debut in Russia, as well as a $3.5 million hold in the U.K. The film is already ahead of the franchise average, both domestically and globally, while it is rapidly approaching first place in both. At this rate, not only will there be yet another sequel, I could see a spin-off happening as well. More...

International Box Office: Bad Boys Bounces Star Wars Out of Top Spot

January 22nd, 2020

Bad Boys for Life took over top spot with $37.50 million on 8,945 screens in 54 international markets over the three-day weekend and $38.96 million including previews and non-standard days, as Sony puts it. The film’s biggest market was arguably Germany where it earned $4.71 million on 661 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.14 million. However, the film made more money over the three-day weekend in the U.K., $4.93 million in 535 theaters, to be more precise. The film earned strong openings in Australia with $3.97 million on 259 and in Mexico with $3.88 million on 2,242 screens. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Bad Boys Gives the Box Office Life

January 22nd, 2020

The first long weekend of the year was fantastic at the box office as Bad Boys for Life set a number of box office records, including MLK Long Weekend Opening Record, which is arguably the most prestigious of the records it set. Dolittle, on the other hand, managed to avoid embarrassing itself, which is about as good as it was going to get after its troubled production. Overall, the box office had amazing growth from last weekend, improving by 25% to $166 million. More importantly, this is 28% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2020 is ahead of 2019 by 10.5% or $63 million at $666 million to $602 million; however, every little bit helps. We don’t have an Endgame this year, so getting off to a fast start will be more important than usual. More...

Weekend Estimates: Bad Boys Blow Up Record Book

January 19th, 2020

The weekend estimates are a little more estimated than usual, because it is a long weekend, so studios are predicting Monday’s results the day before they happen, and there’s a larger margin of error than usual. That said, Bad Boys for Life is going to have no trouble topping the old MLK long weekend opening record, as it is projected to earn $59.2 million / $68.1 million over the weekend. Its three-day figure is almost $10 million more than the previous record holder, Ride Along, earned over three days. And yes, it has the opening weekend record. American Sniper was a December release that expanded wide on MLK weekend. On another positive note, the film’s reviews have risen to 76% positive, which is enough to earn a Certified Fresh rating from Rotten Tomatoes, although the site appears to be slow on awarding that. Additionally, the film earned an A-rating from CinemaScore, so audiences liked the film even more than critics did. The audience was 39% African-Americans, compared to 33% Caucasian, while it was 61% male. No real surprises there. The film is earning $38.6 million on 8,200 screens in 39 markets during its international debut, including stellar openings in Germany ($5.1 million) and the U.K. ($5.0 million). More...

Friday Estimates: Bad Boys Sets January Opening Day Record with $23.5 million

January 18th, 2020

Bad Boys for Life earned $23.5 million on Friday, which is the biggest opening day in January, breaking the previous record of $17.16 million set by Cloverfield back in 2008. It is also way more than anticipated, and puts it on pace to crush the opening weekend record for MLK weekend, and all of the associated records. In fact, Sony is projecting a $66 million four-day debut as a result of this start. There are reasons to be bullish, including the film’s solid reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore. The film is already the biggest hit released in 2020 and if this is a sign of things to come, then we are in for a good year. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Bad Boys do a Good Job at the Box Office?

January 16th, 2020

It’s the first long weekend of the year and we have two films that are hoping to take advantage of MLK Day to get off to a fast start at the box office. Bad Boys for Life does have the advantage in terms of reviews and hype, not to mention a much more reasonable production budget. Dolittle is an early contender for worst movie of 2020. It also cost $175 million to make, so if it doesn’t make at least $100 million domestically, then it is practically guaranteed to lose a ton of money for Universal. This weekend last year, Glass earned first place with $40 million over the three-day weekend. I’ve seen some predictions that have Bad Boys for Life earning less than that over the four-day weekend, but I’ve also seen some predictions that would top the $48-million MLK long weekend opening record. 2020 does have better depth, so the year’s short winning streak shouldn’t come to an end just yet. More...

International Box Office: Star Wars Keeps Competition Away from Top Spot

January 15th, 2020

As previously reported, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker entered the billion dollar club on Tuesday. Over the weekend, it earned $24.2 million in 55 markets for totals, as of the end of the weekend, of $511.4 million internationally and $989.6 million worldwide. It struggled in South Korea, earning second place with $2.16 million on 948 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $3.09 million. I’ll talk about the film that beat it below. Rise of Skywalker did relatively better in the Philippines with an opening of $1.0 million over the weekend, and $3.0 million including previews. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Older Release Dominates the New Year

January 14th, 2020

It was a mixed weekend with the two wide expansions bettering predictions by small margins, but most of the rest of the top five failed to do so. Granted, no film truly bombed, but the little misses did add up causing the total box office to slip by 6.6% from last weekend hitting $132 million. Dips like this are expected at this time of year, as the big holiday releases are fading and January releases just are not expected to be able to compensate. On the positive side, this weekend was 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s helped 2020 get off to an early 6.3% / $24 million lead at $410 million to $386 million. This is not only a faster start than last year, it is actually faster than 2018, which set the record at the end of the year. I’m not saying 2020 will have the biggest total domestic box office; it is far too early to make a prediction like that. However, an early lead can help, as it sets a tone of winning. If the dominant story is a weak box office, then moviegoers could assume the movies coming out are not worth going to see and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. More...

Weekend Estimates: 1917 Fires First Shots in 2020 Box Office Race

January 12th, 2020

1917 is matching projections based on Friday estimates perfectly with a weekend estimate of $36.5 million, which would push its total run to $39.2 million so far. This is a little above our prediction, and much higher than studio expectations. It has some of the best reviews in the top ten and a solid A-minus rating from CinemaScore, both of which should help its legs. Its legs will get even longer if it does well in the Oscar nominations tomorrow. Interestingly, the film isn’t skewing as old as I thought it would, as 47% of its audience was in the 18-through-34 age bracket, compared to just 18% at 55 and above. The film is earning $19.92 million from 30 international markets, although it is being released by multiple studios outside the domestic market, which makes tracking more difficult, as no one studio is giving a complete picture. Hopefully we will get enough smaller details to piece things together by Wednesday. More...

Friday Estimates: 1917 has Exemplary Start to Wide Expansion

January 11th, 2020

1917 earned $13.97 million during the first Friday of its wide expansion. Universal is projecting a $36.5 million weekend after this result, which is a little better than we predicted and better than most were expecting after its Thursday previews. Add in the film’s stellar reviews and its likely performance when the Oscar nominations are announced on Monday, and the film should have very long legs. (It earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is actually lower than I was anticipating.) Universal didn’t have a great 2019 domestically, so an early $100 million hit would help its 2020 run get off to a better start. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can 1917 Race to First Place?

January 9th, 2020

It is a busy weekend with two films opening wide and two films expanding wide. These two groups have vastly different critical receptions and will likely have vastly different box office results. 1917 could be the big winner on Oscar night and that buzz is certainly helping its box office chances. Just Mercy isn’t doing as well with critics or in limited release, so it likely won’t be a major factor during its wide expansion. Like a Boss is earning the worst reviews of the weekend and that’s not helping its box office chances. Finally there’s Underwater, which was made by Fox before the merger, and I don’t think Disney cares if it lives or dies at the box office. This weekend last year was led by The Upside with just over $20 million. There’s a slim chance 1917 will double that figure over the weekend and even if that turns out to be too optimistic, 2020 shouldn’t have too much trouble topping 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Star Wars Still Strong, Frozen and Jumanji Practically Tie for Second

January 8th, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker added $50.5 million in 53 markets to its totals, which now sit at $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film will hit $1 billion, likely by the end of the weekend, especially if it is a big hit when it opens in its last two markets, South Korea and the Philippines. While the film won’t match initial expectations, it will be fantastically profitable. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Star Wars Earns Trilogy of Wins with $34.5 Million

January 7th, 2020

2020 got off to a great start with The Grudge opening better than expected, while most of the holdovers also held strong. Granted, it is still a post-holiday weekend and the total box office did fall 28% from last weekend earning $142 million. However, this is 2.4% higher than the first weekend of last year and that’s a much more important figure. It’s way too early for the year-to-date comparisons to matter, but 2020 did get off to a faster start than 2019 did and has a 7.7% / $17 million lead at $231 million to $215 million. Again, it is way too early to make any predictions, but any victory now will make it easier for 2020 to keep pace with last year during the inevitable slow times. More...

Weekend Estimates: Skywalker Slips on Saturday, Still Scores First Place

January 5th, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker isn’t going to live up to projections based on Friday estimates, but it is still expected to land a little north of weekend predictions with an estimated weekend haul of $33.74 million for a three-week total of $450.80 million. A 53% decline at this time of year isn’t a great result and it is clear the film’s reviews and its mere B plus from CinemaScore are not doing it any favors. That said, it is still one of the biggest hits released in 2019, both domestically and worldwide. Internationally, the film is pulling in $50.5 million in 53 markets for totals of $468.0 million internationally and $918.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it debuts in South Korea and the Philippines this coming weekend and that should help it hit $1 billion worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: Skywalker is still Sky High, Grudge Makes Many Moviegoers Mad

January 4th, 2020

It looks like it is going to be a good weekend at the box office, as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is beating expectations at the box office, and it isn’t the only film to do so. The latest in the Star Wars franchise earned an estimated $11.0 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $37 million over the full weekend. The film needed about $31 million to remain on pace to hit $500 million domestically, so with this result, it is no longer a matter of if it will get there, but how fast it will get there. On the other hand, this is not enough to make a realistic run at The Lion King for second place on the 2019 domestic chart. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can the Grudge Hold Audience’s Attention?

January 2nd, 2020

It is the first weekend of the new year and the only wide release to talk about is a low-budget horror movie, The Grudge, with nearly no buzz and almost no reviews. Unfortunately, it has almost no chance of matching last year’s low-budget horror film, Escape Room. Fortunately, this year’s holdovers, led by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, will outpace last year’s holdovers giving 2020 its first win during the first weekend of the year. More...

International Box Office: Skywalker Remains Sky High in Last Weekend of 2019

January 1st, 2020

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker remained on the top of the international chart with an impressive $94.3 million in 52 markets for totals of $363.0 million internationally and $725.2 million worldwide. It got to $750 million worldwide on Monday. The film has had strong runs in a number of major markets, including the U.K. ($51.4 million); Germany ($44.1 million); France ($34.7 million); Japan ($29.2 million); and Australia ($21.2 million). The film opens in Vietnam this weekend and South Korea next weekend, but that’s the end of its run. It will get to $1 billion worldwide, which is more than enough to ensure a healthy profit, but it is far below initial expectations. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Rises Over Last Year Helping 2019 End on a Positive Note

December 31st, 2019

The last weekend of the year had some good news and some bad news. Unfortunately, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was part of the later, as it fell 59% to $72.39 million over the weekend. However, this was still a dominate performance at the box office, earning more than the next three films combined. It helped the overall weekend remained strong at $197 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend, but more importantly, it is 5.0% higher than the same weekend last year. Furthermore, 2019 cut the deficit with 2018 by about $100 million since The Rise of Skywalker came out and now it is fighting with 2016 to be the second biggest year at the box office of all time. It is true that the year is still behind 2018 by a massive 4.5% / $520 million at $11.04 billion to $11.56 billion, but not being able to maintain a record pace for two years in a row is hardly a serious concern. Even if you look at ticket sales and take into account inflation, then 2019 was a reasonably good year, as it isn’t too far behind 2017 and hardly the worst we’ve seen in the past decade. There are reasons to be optimistic going into 2020. More...

Weekend Estimate: Skywalker Heads Earthwards

December 29th, 2019

The weekend isn’t looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. That’s without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappoint—and we saw too many of those in 2019. More...

Friday Estimates: Rise has a Sharp Fall, but Still Dominates Box Office

December 28th, 2019

The last weekend of the year began on Friday and there’s some good news and some bad news. Bad news, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker fell faster than expected, down 71% from its opening Friday to just $26.23 million. Granted, this was still more than enough to blow past the $300 million mark in just eight days, putting it in a tie for fifth fastest to reach $300 million. The film will bounce back over the rest of the weekend and it is projected to earn $76 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $366 million. If it ended there, then the film could still break even, eventually. In reality, the film has two more weeks of no serious competition, so it will have no trouble getting past a couple of more major milestones before it is done it box office run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the Year End on a High Note, or will Rise have a Troubling Fall?

December 27th, 2019

The weekend after Christmas tends to be even bigger at the box office than the weekend before Christmas, as people are no longer rushing around making sure they have their last minute gifts and food for Christmas dinner. That said, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will likely still fall, as monster blockbusters rarely have extremely long legs. The other sophomore films opened so poorly that I can image theater owners will be pushing them to the smallest screens, perhaps with limited showings. As for the new releases, none of Little Women, Uncut Gems, or Spies in Disguise got off to a great start on Christmas Day, but none of them bombed either. This weekend last year, Aquaman led the way with over $52 million, while the top three earned almost exactly $100 million. This year, The Rise of Skywalker could earn $100 million all by itself. The year will end on a very positive note. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Comprehensive and Abridged Edition

December 24th, 2019

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker recovered a little bit from Sunday’s estimates to earn $177.38 million for the full weekend. While it is always better to beat estimates, this isn’t a large enough margin to really matter in the long run. Its reviews and its B plus are fine for a blockbuster, but aren’t going to help draw in more moviegoers, unlike The Last Jedi. Internationally, the film made $197.7 million in 52 markets to give it a worldwide opening of $375.1 million. It enjoyed the third-biggest weekend in December, the third-biggest day in December, and it is already the 21st biggest worldwide release in 2019. Granted, most thought it would open faster than this, but the film is, at worst, a profitable disappointment. More...

Weekend Estimates: Rise of Skywalker Falls from Projections, but Still Tops the Chart

December 22nd, 2019

There are some mixed results on the weekend chart with some films topping expectations, while others are struggling mightily. Fortunately, the former category includes Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, which is topping my prediction, albeit by a very small margin at $175.5 million, well below the $190 million projections based on Friday’s estimates. Yesterday, it looked like Rise of Skywalker would have similar legs to The Last Jedi. Granted, this film’s reviews and its B plus rating from CinemaScore are weaker than the previous film, but this one will have more help with the holidays. Christmas break has begun, so that should have boosted Sunday’s numbers, but sadly, that doesn’t appear to be the case. However, and this is an important point, the film is still doing fantastic business, with the third-biggest December weekend ever, and it should be a monster hit in the end. More...

Friday Estimates: Star Wars is Going to have a Green Christmas

December 21st, 2019

Despite earning weaker-than-expected reviews, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to have no trouble topping my prediction for the weekend, as it earned an estimated $90 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $190 million over the full weekend. Granted, not everything is rosy, as the film only managed a B plus from CinemaScore. That’s not fatal, but it certainly won’t help its legs. On the other hand, the lack of direct competition and the Christmas break will certainly help it sell many more tickets over the next two weeks. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Star Wars Heat up the Christmas Week Box Office?

December 19th, 2019

This weekend, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens, and it is widely expected to be one of the biggest hits of the year. However, its reviews are merely mixed and this is dragging down expectations. Cats was confusing box office analysts since the first trailer was released and now that its reviews are a mess, things are not looking any better. Finally, Bombshell is expanding wide, but it looks like it won’t be a major factor at the box office this weekend and will have to rely on long legs to carry it to profitability. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Aquaman earned $67.87 million over the weekend. The Rise of Skywalker should earn more than that during its opening day, helping 2019 end on a wildly successful note. More...

Theater Averages: Uncut Won’t Be an Undiscovered Gem

December 19th, 2019

Uncut Gems led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $107,448 in five theaters. The only film to earn a better average this year was Parasite; however, while that film earned an average of $131,072 during its opening weekend, it was playing in only three theaters, so Uncut Gems arguably has the better opening. Bombshell also had an explosive opening with an average of $79,789 in four theaters. The number one film of the weekend, Jumanji: The Next Level, was next with an average of $14,017. The final film in the $10,000 club was A Hidden Life with an average of $10,077 in five theaters. More...

International Box Office: Jumanji Jumps to the Top

December 19th, 2019

Jumanji: The Next Level expanded worldwide this past weekend helping it secure first place with a full haul of $86.96 million, including some previews and weekday numbers, on 40,908 screens in 69 markets for totals of $153.76 million internationally and $213.01 million worldwide. The film’s biggest opening came in the U.K., where it earned first place with $6.97 million on 1,651 screens over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $12.63 million, which is a little better than the previous film earned in that market. Likewise, The Next Level improved on Welcome to the Jungle’s $5.00 million opening in Russia by earning $5.97 million on 2,890 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.29 million. Granted, sequels tend to have shorter legs than their predecessors, but a start like this is still great news and keeps $1 billion worldwide as a possibility. I’m not saying it is going to get there; in fact, we really won’t know until we see the film’s box office numbers for the next couple of weeks. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jumanji Spreads a Little Christmas Cheer

December 17th, 2019

As expected, Jumanji: The Next Level dominated the competition over the weekend. Fortunately, it did so with a lot more than anticipated, earning $59.25 million. This is more than the rest of the top ten combined. Unfortunately, this happened in part due to the disastrous openings of Black Christmas and Richard Jewell. The overall box office rose dramatically from last weekend earning 31% more at $117 million. More importantly, this was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s a tiny margin, but any win is worth celebrating at this point. Year-to-date, 2019 is still well behind 2018’s pace down 5.7% or $620 million at $10.31 billion to $10.93 billion. That said, if we can chip away at that deficit, then 2019 can at least end on a positive note and save face. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jumanji Blows Past Predictions with $60-million Debut

December 15th, 2019

Jumanji: The Next Level is not only beating predictions, but is also topped projections based on Friday’s estimates. The film’s weekend estimate is $60.1 million, which is easily more than the rest of the top ten combined. It is also 66% higher than the Welcome to the Jungle’s opening weekend, although that film had a Wednesday opening, so it isn’t a fair comparison. Internationally, the film is nearly as impressive, earning $85.7 million on 39,900 screens in 52 markets for totals of $152.5 million internationally and $212.6 million worldwide. This includes a monster opening in the U.K., where it earned $12.6 million over the five-day weekend, including previews. This is 32% ahead of the previous installment in the franchise. Overall, the new film is 33% ahead of Welcome to the Jungle’s performance in the same group of new markets. If you look at is box office so far, add in its solid reviews and the Christmas break and we are looking at a $1 billion worldwide run. Sony had a really bad three-year streak a few years ago, but this is the second year in a row where they have been back in form. More...

Friday Estimates: Jumanji Finds Plenty of Christmas Cheer

December 14th, 2019

Jumanji: The Next Level got off to a great start on Friday, earning $19.4 million. Sony is projecting just over $50 million for the weekend after this start, which is well above our $42-million prediction, and in fact on the very high end of range of everyone’s predictions. Furthermore, the film’s reviews remain solid, and, while it doesn’t have a published CinemaScore yet, its word-of-mouth does seem like an asset going forward. Granted, it does have intense competition next weekend, but I have no doubt that Sony is already working on a third installment of the Jumanji reboot. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jumanji Gets off to a $4.7 million Start

December 13th, 2019

Jumanji: The Next Level earned $4.7 million during its Thursday previews. Welcome to the Jungle was a Wednesday opening, and there were no previews we can compare against. Meanwhile, last year’s big release, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, was a kids movie, so we can’t compare its $3.5 million in previews either. This means we are in bit of a waiting period for more hard data, but with overall positive reviews, I’m cautiously optimistic. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Christmas Come a Week Early?

December 12th, 2019

Jumanji: The Next Level will have no trouble earning first place and could earn more than Frozen II, Black Christmas, and Richard Jewell will earn combined. The real question is whether or not the overall box office will keep pace with the same weekend last year when Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse debuted with $35.36 million. I really think Jumanji will top that figure while this year will also have marginally better depth helping 2019 earn a much needed win in the year-over-year competition. More...

International Box Office: Frozen II Finally Faces Some Competition

December 12th, 2019

Frozen II again won the race on top of the international box office chart, but it at least faced some competition this week. The film added $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings, but it did earn $800,000 in South Africa, making it the second fastest opening for an animated film in that market, behind only Minions. In other news, the film cracked $100 million in China over the weekend and now sits at $107.06 million in that market, including $9.84 million this past weekend. It took less than three weeks to top the lifetime total of the first Frozen in that market. More...

Weekend Estimates: Frozen Falls, Still Set to Top Predecessor

December 8th, 2019

Frozen II fell both faster than expected, and faster than projections based on Friday’s estimates. However, the film is still managing an estimated $34.67 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $337.59 million. This is enough to push it ahead of Joker and into seventh place on the yearly chart. If this holds up, then it will have an excellent shot at topping the first Frozen’s domestic total, even without the Christmas break coming up. Internationally, the film pulled in $90.2 million in 48 markets for totals of $582.1 million internationally and $919.7 million worldwide. It had no major market openings this weekend, but it is earning an estimated $800,000 in South Africa, which would make it the second biggest opening for an animated film there, behind only Minions. The film has become the biggest animated film in South Korea with $75.5 million. It as also topped its predecessor in Russia ($23.0 million) and Mexico ($21.1 million) and a lot of smaller markets. More...

2019 Preview: December

December 1st, 2019

Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate. More...

Jumanji: The Next Level Trailer

October 31st, 2019

Adventure movie starring Dwayne Johnson, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, and Kevin Hart opens December 13 ... Full Movie Details. More...