Weekend predictions: Other Mommy takes over from Verity as The Social Reckoning starts slowly

October 9, 2026

Three films open wide this weekend, and one of them should take over the top of the chart. Other Mommy, Universal’s Blumhouse horror starring Jessica Chastain, is expected to open with about $21.8 million, per our model’s Friday-morning prediction. Last weekend’s winner, Verity, should fall back to second with about $13.9 million. Sony’s The Social Reckoning looks set for a soft start, about $7.4 million and fourth place, just behind Resident Evil.

Together the top ten should manage $76.0 million, down 17% on last weekend’s $91.2 million but 18% ahead of the same weekend in 2025. The Fall market is still running comfortably ahead of last year, even on a weekend without a breakout.

Universal opens Other Mommy in 3,365 theaters. Rob Savage directs Jessica Chastain, Jay Duplass and Dichen Lachman in an adaptation of the horror novel Incidents Around the House, about a young girl who forms an attachment to a presence that looks exactly like her mother.

Recent horror releases, most of them Universal’s own, give a median opening of $12.4 million from almost exactly the same number of theaters. Tracking is running 48% ahead of that, which brings the baseline to $18.4 million.

Thursday previews came in at $3.6 million. The closest match is Iron Lung, which took $3.5 million in previews in January and opened to $18.2 million; the stronger openers of the last two years, Weapons and 28 Years Later, started from previews of $5.7 million and $5.8 million. Across the set, the median multiplier of 6.29 points to $22.6 million. The two figures are within 20% of each other, and our prediction of $21.8 million leans toward the previews.

Sony opens The Social Reckoning in 2,606 theaters. Aaron Sorkin writes and directs Mikey Madison, Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong in the story of Frances Haugen, the Facebook whistleblower, sixteen years after his screenplay for The Social Network.

That film opened to $22.4 million, and Steve Jobs, Sorkin’s other Silicon Valley script, to $7.1 million. Both opened before 2020, so their $14.8 million median is discounted to present-day attendance; with tracking running 35% ahead, the baseline is $16.7 million.

The previews tell a very different story. At $650,000, The Social Reckoning sits among recent adult dramas rather than alongside its predecessor, below Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere and The Smashing Machine, which each took $850,000 and opened to $8.9 million and $5.8 million. The median multiplier of 7.85 gives $5.1 million.

The gap between the two numbers is the widest of the weekend, and our prediction, $7.4 million, sits much closer to the previews. There is room for it to do better: older audiences rarely buy Thursday-night tickets, and the strongest multipliers in the comparable set, Reagan at 14.6 and Cabrini at 14.3, came from films that played to exactly that crowd. Even so, a Sorkin film about Facebook opening below $10 million would suggest the subject has lost the pull it had in 2010.

Angel Studios opens Angel and the Badman in 2,263 theaters. Julio Quintana directs Zachary Levi, Neal McDonough and Tommy Lee Jones in a new version of the 1947 western, about a wounded outlaw taken in by a rancher’s family as his past closes in on him.

No previews have been reported, so the prediction rests on the comparables alone. Angel’s 14 wide releases since 2023 have a median opening of $5.2 million from 2,203 theaters. Two of them are well above the rest—Sound of Freedom at $14.2 million and Young Washington at $19.4 million, both Independence Day releases—while last month’s Runner opened to $6.5 million. With a slightly wider release than usual and tracking a little ahead, we expect about $5.8 million.

Here’s how the model thinks the full top ten will shape up:

Among the holdovers, Verity should drop 57% to $13.9 million, a steep second weekend for a film that opened so strongly. Resident Evil is expected to ease 40% to $7.6 million, enough to keep third place, and Heart of the Beast should hold best of all, down 36% to $6.9 million. Primetime, Digger and Forgotten Island should each lose about half their audience, to between $3.6 million and $4.0 million. Given Digger’s struggles so far, a bigger drop seems quite likely.

Tenth place should need only about $1.3 million, which is what Practical Magic 2 is expected to take. That puts it within reach of the 9 to 5 re-release, which returns to 1,275 theaters and is not included in our predictions.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Verity shrugs off a flurry of newcomers to claim the widest release in its second frame

October 8, 2026

Last weekend, Verity snagged a box office win in its debut weekend, pulling in just over $32 million from 3,510 locations in its first outing on the big screen. Now the psychological thriller heads into its second frame with a much more crowded marketplace, facing an influx of fresh challengers as Other Mommy, Angel and the Badman, and The Social Reckoning all make their theatrical bows. With three new wide releases arriving at once, Verity’s sophomore weekend becomes a test of staying power as it attempts to hold its position atop the charts.

The widest footprint of the new films hitting theaters this weekend belongs to Other Mommy, the new horror movie starring Jessica Chastain. The film follows a young girl named Bela, who becomes attached to a sinister entity that looks exactly like her mother. This presence, called “Other Mommy,” slowly inserts itself into Bela’s world, blurring the line between comfort and danger as it begins haunting the family’s home. The Rob Savage-directed feature is based on the 2024 horror novel, Incidents Around the House, and will make its theatrical debut in 3,365 North American cinemas.

Also opening in wide release this weekend is the follow-up to 2010’s biographical drama, The Social Network, with the release of The Social Reckoning. Launching in 2,606 theaters, the film charts the true story of Frances Haugen, a young Facebook product manager who enlists the help of Jeff Horwitz, a Wall Street Journal reporter, to go on a dangerous journey that ends up blowing the whistle on the social network’s most guarded secrets. Veteran filmmaker Aaron Sorkin directs the legal thriller.

Making its debut in 2,263 venues this weekend is Angel and the Badman, a new adaptation of the classic 1947 western. The film centers on feared outlaw Quirt Evans, who collapses on a rancher’s land with a bullet in his back expecting a quick death, not mercy. Instead, he finds compassion in Penny, the rancher’s daughter, who offers him a glimpse of a life beyond violence. But the past refuses to loosen its grip. With a marshal closing in and an outlaw gang threatening to burn the ranch to the ground, Quirt must decide what kind of man he’ll be when the world demands blood. Zachary Levi, Neal McDonough, Tommy Lee Jones, and Meg Fraser star.

Fans of the late Dolly Parton are in for a treat as the 1980 revenge‑comedy 9 to 5 returns to theaters this weekend. The film stars Parton alongside Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin as three overworked, under-appreciated office employees who band together to take revenge on their sexist, egotistical boss, played by Dabney Coleman. Their scheme sets off a chain of events that turns the workplace upside down and ultimately empowers them to reshape it on their own terms. The classic comedy will be available in 1,275 theaters.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend is Heart of the Beast, shedding 116 locations for a new total of 3,365 theaters, matching Other Mommy as it heads into its third frame. Digger retains its opening footprint of 3,321 theaters, while Resident Evil settles into 3,085 locations for its fourth weekend.

Looking ahead to next weekend, a long list of wide releases is set to make their theatrical starts. The lineup includes the action film Street Fighter, the thriller Whalefall, and the 1700s English drama, Sense and Sensibility. The trio is slated to open in approximately 3,500, 3,000, and 2,200 theaters, respectively.

Theater counts for October 9

Theater counts for October 16

The Numbers Business Report: Q3 2027 Box Office Prediction

October 5, 2026

The last two Business Reports featured our first analysis of 2027, with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first and second quarters. In this month’s Report, we continue building out predictions for 2027, shifting our focus towards the second half of the year.

The table below highlights our model’s current prediction for the top 10 films of Q3 2027, shown alongside the top 10 grossers from the same period in 2026 and 2025. Subscribe to receive our full predictions.

July’s releases once again dominate Q3, led by a trio of franchise titles. Predicted to claim the top spot is A Minecraft Movie Squared, the sequel to A Minecraft Movie, which earned $424.1m domestically. Next is DC Studios’ Man of Tomorrow, the follow-up to Superman, which topped Q3 2025 with $354.2m. Rounding out the month is A Quiet Place Part III, the latest in a franchise that has earned $487.3m to date.

August and September are led by family titles and horror. The Bluey Movie brings the hit series to theaters while TMNT 2 continues the story of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. In September, The New Simpsons Movie arrives two decades after The Simpsons Movie and The Conjuring: First Communion follows the franchise-best $177.8m for Last Rites.

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. Subscribe to The Numbers Business Report to receive monthly updates.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of October’s wide releases, including Street Fighter and Clayface (among many others), along with our full 2026, Q1-Q3 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films releasing domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Weekend projections: Verity landing with strong $32.6-million debut as Digger dead on arrival

October 4, 2026

Verity will take $32.6 million from 3,510 theaters this weekend, according to Amazon MGM’s Sunday-morning projection. That is 7% below the $34.9 million the model published on Friday morning, and a little under the $33.6 million Amazon MGM itself was projecting on Saturday. For a Colleen Hoover adaptation it is still the strongest opening since It Ends With Us, and the exit polling the studio released yesterday—79% female, 41% of the audience aged between 25 and 34—points to strong weekday holds and long legs.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The good news for the weekend is two films running well ahead of what was expected of them. Forgotten Island is projected at $7.2 million, a third above the model’s figure and a drop of only 45% from its poor opening. Universal’s animated feature is finding the family audience it missed on opening weekend. Heart of the Beast should take $11.0 million, 18% ahead of the model and the third weekend running it has beaten its number. Paramount’s survival drama is now the clearest word-of-mouth story on the chart.

Digger is the weekend’s giant disappointment. Warner Bros. projects $8.0 million, 27% below the $11.0 million the model predicted on Friday and less than half the $17.8 million the comparable films alone implied. The previews were the warning: at 35% of Friday, the highest share of the weekend, they said the audience had turned out on the first night with little behind it. Saturday’s revision read them correctly and landed within $28,000 of the studio’s number. With a reported budget of $125 million (and rumored budget quite a bit higher) this is major black eye for WB for what will almost certainly be their last release before becoming a subsidiary of Skydance.

Resident Evil holds second on a projected $12.5 million, down 46%, which would put it at $124.4 million domestically. Primetime is expected to take $8.0 million in its second weekend. The Avengers: Endgame re-release falls 83% to $4.4 million, less than half the model’s $9.4 million.

Against the model’s Friday-morning figures the top 10 comes in at 92%, with the two over-performers and Digger largely cancelling each other out. Actuals follow on Monday.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the week, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend update: Verity stays on track as Digger continues to descend

October 3, 2026

Verity took $15.10 million on Friday, and Amazon MGM is projecting $33.6 million for the weekend. Digger is the weekend’s disappointment: $3.40 million on Friday puts it on course for roughly $8.0 million, well short of the $11.0 million the model gave yesterday morning.

Amazon MGM’s adaptation took $15.10 million from 3,510 theaters, with $4.5 million of that from Thursday previews—30% of the day, which is about average for an adult thriller. Ten comparable book-to-screen openings since 2022, among them It Ends With Us, The Housemaid, Reminders of Him and Primetime a week ago, have a median weekend of 2.35 times their Friday, which would give $35.5 million. The regression on previews share points slightly higher, at $36.8 million, and the two together give $36.5 million.

Amazon MGM’s own early estimate, $33.6 million, comes in below both model figures—4% under Friday morning’s $34.9 million and 9% under this morning’s $36.5 million. Either way it is the strongest opening for a Colleen Hoover adaptation since It Ends With Us, and roughly double what the comparable titles managed on their own.

The studio’s exit polling puts the audience at 79% female, with 41% of it aged between 25 and 34.

Warner Bros. opened Digger to $3.40 million from 3,321 theaters, of which $1.2 million came from previews. That share, 35% of Friday, is the highest of the weekend and points to an audience that turned out on the first night with not much behind it. Eleven R-rated comedies since 2022 give a median multiplier of 2.50 and a weekend of $8.5 million; the previews-share regression gives $7.9 million. The model expects about $8.0 million.

Yesterday the model gave $11.0 million, having already cut the figure from a $17.8 million baseline on the strength of weak previews. The cut was the right call and it was not deep enough: the previews method alone said $9.2 million, and the film is tracking below even that.

Heart of the Beast took $3.15 million on Friday, down 58% from its opening Friday, and should take about $10.6 million—14% ahead of the model, after beating last weekend’s figure by 18%. Paramount’s survival drama is the only film in the top ten that has run ahead of the model twice, and a second-weekend hold of that shape is what good word of mouth looks like in the numbers.

Sony is projecting $12.0 million for Resident Evil, down 74% week on week and enough to hold second, which would put it at $124.4 million domestically through Sunday. Primetime should take about $8.4 million.

Universal has Forgotten Island at $6.6 million, a fifth above the model’s $5.43 million on Friday. It opened 24% below the model’s prediction eight days ago and is now holding better than expected.

Rolling Loud: The Movie took $192,923 from 868 theaters and is heading for something under $500,000, against the $3.3 million the baseline model predicted. Lionsgate Premiere is not reporting figures for Beware Boiúna, though it is confirmed outside the top ten. Avengers: Endgame re-release fell 90% on Friday to $1.10 million, putting it near $3.7 million for the weekend and well below the model’s prediction.

Sony also has Spider-Man: Brand New Day at $2.4 million, reaching $954.4 million domestically.

The top ten looks likely to finish roughly 12% below the $100.3 million the model forecast on Friday, and about a quarter down on last weekend’s $117.9 million, though still comfortably ahead of the same weekend in 2025.

Studio projections for the full weekend will follow on Sunday.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Ticket prices up 5% in Q2 vs. 2025 as attendance climbs 10%

September 10, 2026

The first half of 2026 has brought a lot of optimism about the future of the theatrical industry, with the second quarter delivering phenomenal results. For some theater chains, total revenue during the second quarter reached historical records. Fueled by the success of movies such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Michael, Toy Story 5, Obsession, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Backrooms, admissions revenue increased by around 13% on average among the theater chains tracked in this analysis compared with the same period last year. This growth was primarily driven by a 10% average increase in attendance compared with Q2 2025.

Based on these results, our model estimates an average ticket price of $12.27 for the second quarter, approximately 5% higher than in 2025. The relatively modest increase in average ticket price compared with the growth in admissions revenue suggests that the majority of the revenue growth was driven by increased attendance rather than pricing strategies alone.

Additionally, the average concession spend (among the three theater chains reporting concession revenue) was approximately $8 per patron during the quarter, 3% higher than in Q2 2025.

Our model relies on average ticket price data reported in SEC filings from three major theater chains: AMC, Cinemark, and Cineplex. This data is modeled against historical averages previously reported by the Cinema United organization (through 2021) and The Cinema Foundation’s 2022 Theatrical Market Report. Beginning in 2025, we updated our model using additional data from our partners, resulting in revised estimates starting from 2022, as shown in the table below.

To get quarterly updates to average ticket prices, box office predictions for the next 12 months, and more, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The Numbers Named Official Data Partner of the Independent Film & Television Alliance

September 2, 2026

We’re excited to announce our new strategic partnership with the Independent Film & Television Alliance (IFTA), organizer of the American Film Market (AFM), naming The Numbers as the organization’s official data partner.

The collaboration will give IFTA members preferred access to our Comp Analysis Reports and research services, along with educational webinars on financing, market positioning, and distribution strategy, plus data and research support for AFM programming throughout the year.

Bruce Nash, founder of The Numbers and president of Nash Information Services, said the partnership would help IFTA members “make more informed decisions in a complex and growing marketplace”.

IFTA president and CEO Jackie Brenneman said, “Our collaboration with The Numbers will give our members and the broader independent community greater insight into what is happening across the marketplace, help them put that information to work as they finance, produce, sell and distribute content around the world, and better understand the trends shaping where the business is headed.”

Read the full announcement from Screen Daily here.

The Numbers Business Report: Q2 2027 Box Office Prediction

August 31, 2026

Last month, we started our analysis of 2027 with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first quarter. In this month’s Business Report, we continue building out our early predictions for 2027, shifting our attention to the second quarter of next year. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the second quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.

The table below highlights our model’s current prediction for the top 10 films of Q2 2027, shown alongside the top 10 grossers from the same period in 2026 and 2025. Subscribe to receive our full predictions.

Turning to movies released in Q2 2027, by month, our current standouts are:

April: The Legend of Zelda ($280m)
May: The Resurrection of Christ: Part One ($310m)
June: Spider-Man: Beyond the Spiderverse ($330m) and Shrek 5 ($300m)

To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Similar to previous years, Q2 2027 should feature several titles earning over $100 million, primarily from established and successful franchises. Examples include Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, part of Sony’s animated Spider-Verse franchise ($571.8 million domestic across its first two films), and Shrek 5, continuing a series that has grossed $1.61 billion domestically since 2001. Other major releases include Star Wars: Starfighter, extending a franchise that has grossed $5.31 billion domestically since 1977; The Resurrection of the Christ: Part One, following 2004’s $370.8 million domestic hit The Passion of the Christ; and The Legend of Zelda, the video game franchise’s first theatrical adaptation.

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. Subscribe to The Numbers Business Report to receive monthly updates.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of September’s wide releases, including Practical Magic 2 and The End of Oak Street (among many others), along with our full 2026 and Q1 2027, and Q2 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films releasing domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The Numbers Business Report: Q1 2027 Box Office Prediction

August 13, 2026

With the first half of 2026 officially wrapped, we turn our thoughts to 2027 in this month’s Business Report. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the first quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.

Major franchise continuations and sequels dominate the first quarter this year, much more than last, although the late 2026 film, Avengers: Doomsday, is predicted to earn $660m in total, and $217.8m of that falls into 2027. March’s top earner, Sonic the Hedgehog 4, follows closely behind with a $210m predicted gross. We also see the latest(/final?) installments of major franchises like Dune and Jumanji from December of this year contribute to the top earners of Q1 2027.

Turning to movies released in Q1 2027, by month, our current standouts are:

January: The Beekeeper 2 ($59m)
February: Ice Age: Boiling Point ($142m)
March: Sonic the Hedgehog 4 ($210m)

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of August’s wide releases, including The End of Oak Street and The Dog Stars (among many others), along with our full 2026 and Q1 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind, the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Movie pages now have full international details, plus cast & crew

July 22, 2026

Our site build-out continues this week with two major new features on the movie pages. The International tab (which sharp-eyed readers will have noticed appear a few days ago) shows the details of all international territories for which we have reported box office for each movie. This includes our complete archive of movies, with extensive historical information.

Also new this week is the cast and crew details for movies. Again, we have extensive historical information, along with details for recent releases. The cast & crew tab highlights above-the-line and leading credits in each movie.

Look for more new features soon as we build out the site, and if you’re interested in background information on what’s been happening at The Numbers over the past few months, check out Stephen Follows’ article, published today.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report: Live AI search tracking, a mid-year update

July 9, 2026

We introduced our Live AI Search tracking in the March issue of The Numbers Business Report, and have been working on refining our collection and analysis of the numbers since then. This month, we show some early results in using these new statistics to predict opening weekend box office for upcoming movies.

Large language models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity generally consist of two components: a crawler and a live search agent. Starting last year, we began tracking and gathering all requests coming from AI agents. We can then link these data points to our OpusData database, allowing us to monitor what AI agents are requesting and translate that into a signal of audience interest.

The charts below show the first results of our modeling. They show the correlation between ChatGPT live searches in the 28 days leading up to the release of a movie and the movie’s opening weekend.

To read our full analysis, subscribe to The Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of July’s wide releases, including The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Weekend box office: Toy Story tops weekend with franchise-best $160 million

June 22, 2026

Toy Story 5 dominated the market at the weekend, posting a spectacular $159.7 million, according to Disney. That’s the best weekend ever for the franchise, topping Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million debut back in 2019. It also overtakes The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to have the best weekend of 2026 so far.

Here are the official studio numbers for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting).

Toy Story 5 opened to exceptionally strong audience reception, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting a 95% “Verified Hot” audience score from more than 2,500 verified moviegoers, alongside a 93% Certified Fresh critics’ rating. Early audience polling from ComScore’s PostTrak showed top-tier satisfaction, including 5 out of 5 stars from parents and 4.5 out of 5 stars from both general audiences and children. Overall, 91% of viewers rated the film positively, with 63% describing it as “excellent.” CinemaScore reinforced the film’s strong debut, awarding it an “A,” continuing Pixar’s consistent streak of A-range grades across its releases.

Premium viewing formats played a significant role in the film’s opening weekend performance, accounting for 40% of total box office revenue. Standard 2D screenings made up the majority at 60%, while premium large format (PLF) 2D contributed 19% and IMAX 2D added 8%. In total, 2D formats represented 89% of ticket sales, compared to 11% for 3D formats. Audience demographics reflected broad appeal, with a gender split of 57% female and 43% male. The film attracted a diverse audience, including 37% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 13% African American, 9% Asian, and 9% Native American or other groups. Age distribution skewed toward families and younger adults, led by viewers under 12 (25%), followed by ages 25–34 (22%) and 35–44 (20%).

Internationally, Toy Story 5 delivered strong opening results across key markets, led by Mexico with $26.6 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $20.0 million and China at $18.0 million. In Europe, France contributed $7.2 million, Spain $5.5 million, and Italy $3.5 million, while Australia added $6.9 million. Latin America proved particularly robust, with Brazil and Korea each generating $6.1 million, Argentina $5.4 million, Colombia $4.2 million, and Central America $3.7 million, underscoring the film’s broad global appeal.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report asks, where have all the indie films gone?

June 11, 2026

Movies from the major studios may get most of the buzz, but by the raw numbers, most movies that get made and distributed have more humble origins. In the latest The Numbers Business Report, we look at the universe of movies produced and distributed for sale, either in theaters, on a digital transactional platform, or a subscription streaming service in the domestic market (the United States and Canada) between 2021 and 2025. In this study, we call these “commercial releases,” in contrast to “ad-supported content,” which includes content produced for platforms like YouTube, and also movies released solely on AVOD services.

What we’ve found is a tale of two markets. On the one hand, the theatrical market has shown growth over the past five years, with 101 domestically-produced and released narrative features earning over $1 million at the box office in 2021, and 160 such movies in 2025. With new distribution technologies making it easier than ever to get movies into theaters, the total number of domestically-produced narrative features getting any sort of theatrical release has also increased, from 494 in 2021 to 598 in 2025.

The increase in that number contrasts with a steep decline among direct-to-digital titles. Movies bypassing theaters, but still having a commercial release, fell from 1,427 in 2022 to 721 last year. That’s a decline of nearly 50% in just three years.

Subscribe to The Business Report for details on how we compiled the data, and what we think is happening to cause this remarkable shift in the independent film business in such a short time.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of June’s wide releases, including Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be ”under construction“ for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!