Weekend predictions: Spider-Man should hang on, but Coyote vs. Acme looking good

August 28, 2026

Spider-Man: Brand New Day should win the weekend, but Coyote vs. Acme looks as though it will won’t be slamming into a wall or running off a cliff this weekend.

Here are the model’s takes on the openers, based on what we know as of this morning.

Here’s the model’s take on the top 10:

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Spider-Man stays in the spotlight, gliding into a fifth weekend as the widest release

August 27, 2026

Spider-Man: Brand New Day continued its blistering theatrical run last weekend with just over $39 million in its fourth frame. That push lifts the film’s 24‑day domestic haul to a staggering $855 million, further cementing its status as the summer’s runaway phenomenon. And while Brand New Day remains the title to beat, a fresh wave of newcomers is set to roll into theaters this weekend, eager to test their strength against the box office heavyweight.

The largest footprint among this weekend’s new offerings comes from the long‑awaited Coyote vs. Acme. The film centers on a tenacious coyote who, after years of catastrophic ACME product failures, uncovers a corporate conspiracy and launches an off‑the‑rails crusade against the conglomerate responsible for his repeated explosions. A roadrunner darts through the proceedings, and the dynamite budget appears untouched. Will Forte, Lana Condor, and John Cena topline the Dave Green‑directed feature, opening in 3,575 theaters.

Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars touches down in 3,330 theaters this weekend. Based on the 2012 novel, the film centers on a former civilian pilot and a hardened ex‑Marine who confront mounting dangers while holding onto the faint possibility of a life beyond the desolation left by a flu pandemic that has erased nearly all of humanity. Jacob Elordi and Josh Brolin star, with Margaret Qualley and Guy Pearce rounding out the ensemble.

Making its way into 1,258 domestic theaters is comedy-horror Buddy. Casper Kelly’s film centers on a group of kids pulled into a warped, 1990s‑era children’s TV world, only to discover their oversized, neon‑orange unicorn host has turned into a vicious, unhinged threat. Patton Oswalt, Cristin Milioti, and Topher Grace lead the cast.

Comedy Idiots rolls into 1,110 theaters this weekend. The story tracks two down‑on‑their‑luck drivers, played by Dave Franco and O’Shea Jackson Jr., whose simple gig escorting a rich teen to rehab detonates into a wild ride of drugs, danger, and criminal misadventures once their passenger takes control of the wheel.

Alicia MacDonald’s romantic comedy Finding Emily arrives in 681 theaters this weekend. The story centers on a hopelessly smitten musician who’s given the wrong number for the girl he can’t stop thinking about, prompting him to join forces with a determined psychology student to find her. Their quest ignites a campus‑wide uproar that challenges both their goals and their growing connection. Angourie Rice and Spike Fearn lead the cast.

Closing out the top five widest releases is the reigning box‑office topper, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, slipping under 4,000 theaters for the first time yet still webbed across a hefty 3,678 locations. Insidious: Out of the Further stays locked into its debut count of 3,303 theaters, and Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie continues to scamper across the country in 3,110 venues.

Next weekend, Labor Day brings a fresh slate of releases. Fall 2: Deadpoint kicks things off midweek, bowing in about 1,700 theaters on Wednesday, September 2. Two days later, the 1960s‑era thriller By Any Means makes its debut on Friday, September 4, targeting approximately 2,500 locations. Rounding out the lineup are Katy Perry: The Lifetimes Tour: Live From Paris, Cocoon: One Summer of Girlhood, Onslaught, and Tom and Jerry: Forbidden Compass.

Theater Counts for August 28

Theater Counts for September 2 & 4

Weekend projections: Spider-Man up to $850 million domestic

August 23, 2026

Spider-Man: Brand New Day isn’t done with its domination at the box office, and will stay top of the chart for a fourth straight weekend, but for the first time there are some chinks in its armor. Insidious: Out of the Further will come in second this weekend with a projected $25.3 million, which is well behind Spidey’s $39 million, but not quite over the horizon. Brand New Day will have the 8th-best 4th weekend of all time, not far ahead of The Odyssey’s $31.7 million in its fourth frame. (The Odyssey will have the 9th-best 6th weekend this weekend, by the way, or 8th-best if we discount American Sniper based on its unusual release pattern).

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The 45% drop for Spider-Man is right in line with our model’s prediction but marks a bit of a turning point for the movie. It’s playing in 4,006 theaters this weekend, the first decrease in theater count during its run, and that decline will continue over the weeks to come. Our raw model is predicting a final box office total of $985 million, which would make it the highest-grossing movie of all time domestically, but fall just short of the $1-billion mark. Could it get there with a boost from Sony sometime in October? Maybe, but it might take more of a push that is worthwhile, even taking into account the considerable bragging rights for the studio, and the fact that profits already run into the hundreds of millions.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Insidious mounts a challenge on Spider-Man

August 21, 2026

Insidious: Out of the Further is mounting a surprise challenge for the box office crown this weekend after posting $3 million from previews on Thursday. That’s a couple of million less than Insidious: The Red Door earned from previews on its way to a $33-million opening in 2023, and our model thinks Spider-Man: Brand New Day will prevail in the end, but the difference between the predictions falls within the model’s margin of error.

Here are the model’s takes on the openers, and wide expansions based on what we know as of this morning.

We haven’t seen any preview numbers for Spa Weekend, and we’re seeing low ticket sales, so the prediction above may well be on the high side.

Here’s the model’s take on the top 10:

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Spider-Man keeps its grip as the widest release for the fourth weekend running

August 20, 2026

Last weekend, the juggernaut known as Spider-Man: Brand New Day continued its blistering run, pulling in a hefty $71 million during its third domestic weekend. By Tuesday, the web‑slinger had already crossed the $800 million threshold, setting a new speed record in the process. With a fourth straight weekend win in sight, the film now faces a fresh wave of challengers eager to disrupt its reign at the top.

The widest of the newcomers hitting cinemas this weekend is the latest entry in the Insidious franchise, Insidious: Out of the Further. The film centers on a young mother raising her daughter in her childhood home, only to discover she can slip into The Further, the purgatorial realm of lost souls at the heart of the series. When a malevolent presence targets her, Gemma uncovers a terrifying ability that changes everything: she doesn’t just enter The Further; she can bring its inhabitants back with her. The supernatural horror stars Insidious veteran Lin Shaye, along with Amelia Eve. Out of the Further will bow in 3,303 North American theaters.

Jason Statham’s latest action feature, Mutiny, arrives in 2,703 locations this weekend. The film follows Cole Reed, a former Royal Marine and Metropolitan Police officer now serving as a bodyguard, who is framed for his billionaire employer’s murder after witnessing the killing firsthand. Reed’s pursuit of justice takes him aboard a cargo ship, where his one‑man mission uncovers a sweeping international conspiracy. The film is directed by Jean‑François Richet, making his first return since 2023’s Plane.

Launching in 2,009 locations this weekend is Spa Weekend, a comedy centered on childhood friends Jane, Coco, and Sophie as they head off for a lavish girls’ retreat. Their peaceful escape is upended when their trainwreck friend Mel arrives unannounced, turning the spa trip into a whirlwind of mishaps and laughs. Directed by the team behind Bad Moms and written by the minds behind The Hangover, the film stars Leslie Mann, Isla Fisher, Michelle Buteau and Anna Faris.

Marking its 25th anniversary, the early‑2000s street‑racing powerhouse The Fast and the Furious races back into theaters this weekend. The film, which topped $200 million worldwide and launched a franchise now 11 sequels deep, returns for a celebratory engagement in 1,561 North American venues.

A notable mover this weekend is the Anthony Bourdain biopic Tony, which surges from 37 locations to 1,652 as it enters its third frame. The film has accumulated more than $1.2 million so far in limited release.

Rounding out the top five widest releases this weekend is Spider-Man: Brand New Day, shedding 533 theaters in its fourth frame but still playing broadly in 4,006 locations. Last weekend’s newcomers Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie and The End of Oak Street both expand their footprints, rising to 3,609 and 3,478 cinemas, respectively. Also holding wide is The Odyssey, still showing in 3,091 theaters as the film’s global tally climbs past $1.35 billion.

Theater Counts for August 21

Theater counts for August 28

Weekend projections: Spider-Man passes $2 billion worldwide

August 16, 2026

On a weekend packed with new releases, Spider-Man: Brand New Day continues to dominate at the box office. Sony Pictures projects the web-slinger will earn another $70 million in its third weekend—the second-best third weekend of all time, behind The Force Awakens’ $90.2 million over New Year’s weekend in 2016. Brand New Day will end the weekend with about $785.8 million domestically and $1.236 billion internationally, which will take it past $2 billion worldwide by close of business today. That will make it the 7th-highest grossing movie of all time globally, and it is the second-fastest film to crack $2 billion. It has already surpassed Spider-Man: No Way Home to become Sony’s top-grossing movie of all time.

Overseas territories posted resilient holds in the wallcrawler’s third frame, easing 51% overall to deliver $118.7 million from 67 markets on approximately 53,700 screens. China led the weekend with $10 million to lift its cume to $210 million, followed by France at $9.1m (-39%) for a cume of $63.7m. Other top markets this weekend: the United Kingdom ($8.2m weekend, -49%, $106.0m cume), Brazil ($7.5m, -47%, $59.5m), Mexico ($7.3m, $78.0m), Australia ($6.6m, -45%, $48.8m), South Korea ($6.4m, -41%, $53.2m), Germany ($6.4m, -42%, $48.8m), Japan ($3.4m, -15%, $27.0m), India ($3.2m, $59.6m), Spain ($2.8m, -44%, $35.2m), and Italy ($2.2m, $36.4m).

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

The Odyssey remains in second place this weekend with another $23.2 million domestically. That’s the 10th-best 5th weekend ever, and, remarkably, five of the 22 best 5th weekends ever have all been posted by movies released in the past year: Michael (13th, with $20.6m), Project Hail Mary (14th, with $20.5m), Zootopia 2 (18th, with $19.9m), and Obsession (22nd with $19.0m) complete the set. (Spider-Man will probably join them in a couple of weekends to make it six of the best 23 5th weekends.)

The Odyssey posted an excellent $36.6 million on its opening weekend in China, and now has $786.2 million internationally, $504.7 million domestically, and $1.29 billion worldwide—easily the best figures of Christoper Nolan’s career.

The overall health of the theatrical market is very strong right now, and it’s helped by a slew of new releases this weekend. As suspected on Friday, The End of Oak Street will snag third place on the chart this weekend with a solid $21 million. That’s a little behind our expectations going into the weekend, and maybe a case of critics being a bit more enthusiastic than moviegoers. PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie is headed for fourth place, although the difference between the two dino movies is small enough that their positions could be reversed when we get the final numbers tomorrow.

Below those two, come no less than four new releases that make the top 10, and there are a total of nine brand new films in the top 20, not to mention Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma and Tony, which both expanded in their second weekends and are still posting excellent theater averages ($16,800 for Camp Miasma and $19,099 for Tony). Finally, Watermelon Pictures release of Poh Si Teng’s Sundance award winning documentary, American Doctor has been selling out screenings at the Angelika Film Center in New York for a $40,061 opening weeekend—the best theater average for a documentary in the past two years.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Dino weekend won’t deter Spider-Man

August 14, 2026

Spider-Man: Brand New Day will stay top at the box office this weekend in its third weekend in release, but a battle is brewing for the next three spots in the chart, as two dino movies face off against The Odyssey.

Here are the model’s takes on the openers, based on what we know as of this morning.

Here’s the model’s take on the top 10:

Industry tracking has The End of Oak Street beating PAW Patrol this weekend, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see their positions and totals reversed. PAW Patrol had very good preview numbers compared to expectations, but that could be a flash in the pan, and it’s a known quantity, so it won’t benefit much from word of mouth over the weekend. Oak Street, on the other hand, could get good buzz through the weekend, and end up topping our prediction.

With The Odyssey powering on, we could see four films top $20 million this weekend—an impressive number for this time of year.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months, and our weekly subscription option puts you first in line for our detailed weekend predictions on Friday morning.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report: Q1 2027 Box Office Prediction

August 13, 2026

With the first half of 2026 officially wrapped, we turn our thoughts to 2027 in this month’s Business Report. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the first quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.

Major franchise continuations and sequels dominate the first quarter this year, much more than last, although the late 2026 film, Avengers: Doomsday, is predicted to earn $660m in total, and $217.8m of that falls into 2027. March’s top earner, Sonic the Hedgehog 4, follows closely behind with a $210m predicted gross. We also see the latest(/final?) installments of major franchises like Dune and Jumanji from December of this year contribute to the top earners of Q1 2027.

Turning to movies released in Q1 2027, by month, our current standouts are:

January: The Beekeeper 2 ($59m)
February: Ice Age: Boiling Point ($142m)
March: Sonic the Hedgehog 4 ($210m)

We’ll be updating our tracking as the months go on, and our full prediction for 2027 releases in November. To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of August’s wide releases, including The End of Oak Street and The Dog Stars (among many others), along with our full 2026 and Q1 2027 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 500 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind, the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Movie pages now have full international details, plus cast & crew

July 22, 2026

Our site build-out continues this week with two major new features on the movie pages. The International tab (which sharp-eyed readers will have noticed appear a few days ago) shows the details of all international territories for which we have reported box office for each movie. This includes our complete archive of movies, with extensive historical information.

Also new this week is the cast and crew details for movies. Again, we have extensive historical information, along with details for recent releases. The cast & crew tab highlights above-the-line and leading credits in each movie.

Look for more new features soon as we build out the site, and if you’re interested in background information on what’s been happening at The Numbers over the past few months, check out Stephen Follows’ article, published today.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report: Live AI search tracking, a mid-year update

July 9, 2026

We introduced our Live AI Search tracking in the March issue of The Numbers Business Report, and have been working on refining our collection and analysis of the numbers since then. This month, we show some early results in using these new statistics to predict opening weekend box office for upcoming movies.

Large language models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity generally consist of two components: a crawler and a live search agent. Starting last year, we began tracking and gathering all requests coming from AI agents. We can then link these data points to our OpusData database, allowing us to monitor what AI agents are requesting and translate that into a signal of audience interest.

The charts below show the first results of our modeling. They show the correlation between ChatGPT live searches in the 28 days leading up to the release of a movie and the movie’s opening weekend.

To read our full analysis, subscribe to The Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of July’s wide releases, including The Odyssey and Spider-Man: Brand New Day (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Contact The Numbers Business Report team to subscribe to the weekly edition. Click here to subscribe to The Numbers Business Report monthly edition.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

Weekend box office: Toy Story tops weekend with franchise-best $160 million

June 22, 2026

Toy Story 5 dominated the market at the weekend, posting a spectacular $159.7 million, according to Disney. That’s the best weekend ever for the franchise, topping Toy Story 4’s $120.9 million debut back in 2019. It also overtakes The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to have the best weekend of 2026 so far.

Here are the official studio numbers for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting).

Toy Story 5 opened to exceptionally strong audience reception, with Rotten Tomatoes reporting a 95% “Verified Hot” audience score from more than 2,500 verified moviegoers, alongside a 93% Certified Fresh critics’ rating. Early audience polling from ComScore’s PostTrak showed top-tier satisfaction, including 5 out of 5 stars from parents and 4.5 out of 5 stars from both general audiences and children. Overall, 91% of viewers rated the film positively, with 63% describing it as “excellent.” CinemaScore reinforced the film’s strong debut, awarding it an “A,” continuing Pixar’s consistent streak of A-range grades across its releases.

Premium viewing formats played a significant role in the film’s opening weekend performance, accounting for 40% of total box office revenue. Standard 2D screenings made up the majority at 60%, while premium large format (PLF) 2D contributed 19% and IMAX 2D added 8%. In total, 2D formats represented 89% of ticket sales, compared to 11% for 3D formats. Audience demographics reflected broad appeal, with a gender split of 57% female and 43% male. The film attracted a diverse audience, including 37% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 13% African American, 9% Asian, and 9% Native American or other groups. Age distribution skewed toward families and younger adults, led by viewers under 12 (25%), followed by ages 25–34 (22%) and 35–44 (20%).

Internationally, Toy Story 5 delivered strong opening results across key markets, led by Mexico with $26.6 million, followed by the United Kingdom at $20.0 million and China at $18.0 million. In Europe, France contributed $7.2 million, Spain $5.5 million, and Italy $3.5 million, while Australia added $6.9 million. Latin America proved particularly robust, with Brazil and Korea each generating $6.1 million, Argentina $5.4 million, Colombia $4.2 million, and Central America $3.7 million, underscoring the film’s broad global appeal.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report asks, where have all the indie films gone?

June 11, 2026

Movies from the major studios may get most of the buzz, but by the raw numbers, most movies that get made and distributed have more humble origins. In the latest The Numbers Business Report, we look at the universe of movies produced and distributed for sale, either in theaters, on a digital transactional platform, or a subscription streaming service in the domestic market (the United States and Canada) between 2021 and 2025. In this study, we call these “commercial releases,” in contrast to “ad-supported content,” which includes content produced for platforms like YouTube, and also movies released solely on AVOD services.

What we’ve found is a tale of two markets. On the one hand, the theatrical market has shown growth over the past five years, with 101 domestically-produced and released narrative features earning over $1 million at the box office in 2021, and 160 such movies in 2025. With new distribution technologies making it easier than ever to get movies into theaters, the total number of domestically-produced narrative features getting any sort of theatrical release has also increased, from 494 in 2021 to 598 in 2025.

The increase in that number contrasts with a steep decline among direct-to-digital titles. Movies bypassing theaters, but still having a commercial release, fell from 1,427 in 2022 to 721 last year. That’s a decline of nearly 50% in just three years.

Subscribe to The Business Report for details on how we compiled the data, and what we think is happening to cause this remarkable shift in the independent film business in such a short time.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of June’s wide releases, including Disclosure Day and Toy Story 5 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be ”under construction“ for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!