Weekend predictions: Mandalorian looking at $80m–$100m 3-day opening

May 22, 2026

The Mandalorian & Grogu is the big movie to watch over Memorial Day weekend, although it looks as though it will take four days to top $100 million rather than posting a century-plus three-day debut. Out model’s prediction today stands at $87.8 million, which is a perfectly respectable number these days for a movie that’s based on a TV and moving to the big screen.

Here are the model’s predictions for The Mandalorian and this weekend’s two other wide releases, Passenger and I Love Boosters…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The dark horse this weekend is Obsession, which has been posting fantastic daily numbers through the week, and has topped the chart since Monday. The model thinks it will decline just 16% in its second weekend, partly helped by the holiday weekend, but largely thanks to great word of mouth.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: The Mandalorian & Grogu invades 4,300 theaters across North America

May 21, 2026

Four new releases are set to arrive in theaters this weekend, led by the long-awaited debut of The Mandalorian & Grogu, which continues the story begun in the Disney+ series, The Mandalorian. The film follows bounty hunter Din Djarin and his adopted apprentice Grogu as they embark on a new galactic mission to rescue Rotta the Hutt in exchange for information connected to a far greater threat. Opening in 4,300 theaters, the film stars Pedro Pascal as Din Djarin/The Mandalorian, alongside Jeremy Allen White as Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver as Colonel Ward. Jon Favreau, who helmed the television series, returns to direct the feature, marking his first film since 2019’s The Lion King.

Also making its theatrical debut is the road-trip horror Passenger. The film follows a young couple who witness a brutal highway accident, only to discover they didn’t leave the crash site alone. A malevolent entity known as the Passenger begins to stalk them, turning their carefree van-life journey into a relentless nightmare that won’t end until it claims them both. Starring Jacob Scipio and Lou Llobell, the film is directed by André Øvredal and opens in 2,534 theaters nationwide.

Also opening wide this weekend is I Love Boosters. The crime comedy follows a crew of professional shoplifters who take aim at a cutthroat fashion maven. Starting in 1,750 theaters, the film stars an ensemble cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie and Poppy Liu among others.

Hitting theaters for the first time is another horror feature, this time from director Aaron Fisher. Corporate Retreat follows a group of ambitious young executives who attend a luxury team-building getaway, only to find the experience devolving into a brutal, blood-soaked fight for survival. Theater counts will be updated once they become available.

Rounding out the top five this weekend is Michael, shedding 244 locations but still remaining widely available in 3,306 theaters. The Devil Wears Prada 2 slips from 3,830 to 3,300 venues, while The Sheep Detectives and Mortal Kombat II land in 3,207 and 2,726 cinemas, respectively.

Looking ahead, three wide releases are set to arrive in North American theaters next weekend, including the Nate Bargatze comedy, The Breadwinner, expected to play in approximately 3,300 theaters. Meanwhile, D-Day drama/thriller, Pressure, starring Brendan Fraser and Andrew Scott, looks to embark in about 1,500 theaters.

Theater Counts for May 22

Theater counts for May 29

Weekend projections: Michael back on top as Obsession impresses

May 17, 2026

Michael is a chart-topper once more this weekend, as a solid decline of 31% in its fourth weekend takes it past The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Mortal Kombat II, which sat at number one and two last weekend. Obsession is easily the best of the new releases, with an excellent $16.1-million debut.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

Michael has now amassed $282.8 million at the domestic box office, and our model predicts it will end its run with a formidable $333 million. With $421.1 million internationally, the biopic already stands at $703.9 million worldwide. If its international trendline matches its domestic one (which has been the case so far), it will earn somewhere around $820 million to $840 million worldwide when all is said and done. Bohemian Rhapsody’s $879-million all-time record gross for a musician biopic might actually be at risk.

Obsession is coming in slightly better than the model predicted on Friday. The film earned an A- CinemaScore from opening-night audiences, while PostTrak showed strong sentiment with 89% of moviegoers rating it in the top two boxes. The crowd skewed male, 59% to 41% female, and 61% of ticket buyers were 25 or older. The largest age group was 25-34 at 39%, followed closely by 18-24 at 36%, with 35-44 at 13%, 45-54 at 5%, 55 and older at 4%, and teens 13-17 at 3%. Ethnically, the audience was 39% Caucasian, 32% Hispanic, 12% African American, 12% Asian, and 5% Native American or other. Good word of mouth is clearly helping this one.

In the Grey and Is God Is are both missing their marks, which isn’t a big surprise. In the Grey was tracking fairly well over the past few weeks, but couldn’t break through. Is God Is is an excellent movie that was never going enjoy widespread appeal. The good news is that audiences got a chance to see them in theaters, and both will have good post-theatrical runs.

Two final items of note. Top Gun returns to the top 10 this weekend with a very decent $3.1 million, and The Sheep Detectives is expected to fall only 38% on its second weekend, pointing to excellent word-of-mouth and strong legs. Its challenge will be holding on to theaters after Memorial Day weekend, but the model thinks it could come very close to $50 million by the end of its run. It has $29.7 million to date domestically, and a virtually identical $29 million overseas.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Michael and Prada looking neck-and-neck going into weekend

May 15, 2026

Last week’s chart topper, The Devil Wears Prada 2, and Michael, which was last at the top of the charts the weekend of April 24 look to be neck-and-neck for honors this weekend. Our model gives Michael a tiny edge, but there’s less than 2% between them on our prediction, which is well within our margin or error. A plethora of other films are technically in the running for top spot, including last week’s best new release, Mortal Kombat II, and at least three of the new releases.

Topping the list of new releases is Obsession, which posted $2.6 million from Wednesday and Thursday previews. Here’s are model’s prediction…

Our prediction is probably skewed a little high because we don’t have a breakdown of how much Obsession earned on Wednesday vs. Thursday. Something over $10 million looks likely though.

The two other wide releases for which we have predictions are In the Grey and Is God Is…

We don’t have preview numbers for either of these two movies, and honestly our model is probably erring on the high side for both of them. They should both hit the top 10, but the market is looking too crowded for either of them to really break through.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The race at the top is basically a coin flip. The two movies to look out for lower on the chart are Obsession, which has started out strong, and could end the weekend with good numbers, and The Sheep Detectives, which our model thinks will decline a respectable 53% from its opening weekend. Based on the word of mouth I’m hearing, it could do quite a bit better than that.

Also worth looking out for on the chart (and even watching in a theater) are the re-releases of Top Gun and Shrek. The former of the two has already earned $1.7 million from Wednesday and Thursday screenings, and both of them could well find their way into the top 10 this weekend.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Theater counts: Devil Wears Prada still widest release amid deluge of new releases

May 14, 2026

The Devil Wears Prada 2 eases its theater count slightly this weekend, down to 3,830 locations in its third frame. Michael holds relatively steady as it keeps a strong presence in 3,560 theaters, while The Sheep Detectives and Mortal Kombat II also continue their wide runs, both remaining above the 3,500-theater mark. A huge list of newcomers graces this weekend’s schedule, along with a couple of iconic fan favorites for their anniversary re-releases.

The wave of new titles hitting the marketplace this weekend is led by the Curry Barker-directed Obsession, opening in 2,615 theaters. The thriller stars Michael Johnston and centers on a spiraling psychological relationship that turns dangerously unstable as obsession blurs into control and paranoia.

Launching in 2,295 theaters is the 40th anniversary re-release of the iconic fighter pilot saga Top Gun, returning to cinemas for a limited, one-week engagement aimed at both nostalgia audiences and premium large-format screens. The film already picked up $1.16 million on Wednesday, adding to its previous haul of $181 million.

Also opening wide this weekend is In the Grey, debuting in 2,018 locations. The action-thriller follows a covert extraction operation that spirals out of control when competing agendas surface mid-mission, forcing its operatives into a high-stakes game of shifting loyalties.

Is God Is opens in 1,510 theaters. The adaptation of the acclaimed stage play follows twin sisters on a violent, mythic journey of revenge as they confront family trauma and a reckoning that stretches beyond the personal into the surreal. Aleshea Harris directed the revenge thriller starring Kara Young and Mallori Johnson.

Also coming back to theaters for its 25th anniversary is Shrek. Looking to build on its $492 million global total, the beloved animated hit will play in 1,370 cinemas across North America.

Anime and global fan audiences drive a specialty rollout this weekend as Mobile Suit Gundam Hathaway: The Sorcery of Nymph Circe opens in 894 theaters, extending the franchise’s steady theatrical presence in North America.

Looking ahead, the biggest headline arrival next weekend is The Mandalorian and Grogu, launching in a massive 4,200 theaters as Disney+ crossover makes its long-awaited theatrical debut. Other films opening in wide release next weekend include the horror movie Corporate Retreat, comedy I Love Boosters, and the André Øvredal-directed horror flick Passenger.

Theater Counts for May 15

Theater counts for May 22

Weekend projections: Devil Wears Prada steals box office purse from Mortal Kombat

May 10, 2026

The Devil Wears Prada 2 is set to pull off a narrow win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Its 44% drop to $43 million on its second weekend (for a total of $145 million to date) looks set to outpace the debut of Mortal Kombat II, which is coming in with a very creditable $40 million itself. With Michael declining just 33% in its third weekend, and a total of three new releases in the top five, we’re looking at a very solid weekend in theaters.

Here are the official studio projections for the weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far).

All of the top three movies will average over $10,000 per theater this weekend, which means lots of sold-out shows at busy times. Mortal Kombat II effectively lost out on top spot because it’s playing in fewer locations (3,503) than Prada (4,200). Kombat will easily have the best opening for the franchise, beating the $23.3 million earned by the 2021 Mortal Kombat. The 1995 Mortal Kombat has both of them beat when it comes to ticket sales, with an opening of $23.3 million, equivalent to $64 million when adjusting for ticket-price inflation.

Demographics for the new Mortal Kombat movie are 42% Caucasian, 30% Hispanic, 19% African-American, 5% Asian, and 4% Native-American/Other. It’s earning a solid B CinemaScore and 83 PostTrak Index Score, plus a 90% “Verified Hot” score on Rotten Tomatoes.

It’s looking less strong overseas, with a $23-million international debut, led by the United Kingdom with $2.2 million, Mexico with $1.7 million, and Australia with $1.6 million.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 continues to earn impressive global figures, with another $75.8 million internationally this weekend taking it to $288.4 million outside North America, and $433.2 million worldwide after two weekends. It has surpassed $20 million in four overseas markets: the United Kingdom ($28.5m), Italy ($28.2m), Brazil ($22m), and Mexico ($20.1m). Our model now predicts it will finish with $218 million domestically, which lines it up for about $650 million worldwide by the end of its run.

Meanwhile, Michael continues to perform excellently around the world. It has now surpassed the $216 million domestic box office gross of Bohemian Rhapsody to become number one musical biopic of all time in North America. It has also blown past $500 million worldwide this weekend, with $577.39 million to date. It has passed $20 million in five international markets: the United Kingdom ($45.9m), France ($30.5m), Mexico ($22.8m), Brazil ($20.8m), and Italy ($20.7m). Our model is projecting a domestic total of $310 million, and something over $700 million worldwide. Bohemian Rhapsody’s $879 million record for a musician biopic probably isn’t in jeopardy, but we won’t know for sure until Michael arrives in Japan in June.

Although it isn’t causing the same commotion as the movies in the top three, The Sheep Detectives is making an encouraging start this weekend with a projected $15.9 million. It earned a solid A- CinemaScore, alongside an impressive 92% in the top two boxes on PostTrak, signaling strong audience satisfaction across the board. The crowd skewed slightly female at 58%, compared to 42% male, with its largest segment coming from viewers aged 25–34 (31%), followed by a notable 28% aged 55 and over. Younger audiences were present but less dominant, including 17% aged 18–24 and just 4% teens. Demographically, the audience was led by 67% White moviegoers, with Hispanic audiences at 14%, Asian at 10%, African American at 5%, and 4% Native American or other groups.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

Weekend predictions: Mortal Kombat II favored in intense threeway battle

May 8, 2026

This weekend should belong to Mortal Kombat II when the dust settles, but the chart toppers from the last two weekends might have something to say about that, with both The Devil Wears Prada 2 and Michael enjoying enthusiastic support from their respective fan bases. With all three films aimed at somewhat different demographics (and new release The Sheep Detectives having a niche of its own), we should have an excellent weekend in theaters.

Here’s our model’s baseline for Mortal Kombat II. Our pre-release tracking was already confident this installment of the franchise would outperform its predecessors in general, and the 2021 reboot in particular.

The preview numbers are pointing to a weekend close to, or possibly a little better than that.

$40 million isn’t out of the question, but something in the high 30s looks most likely.

Meanwhile, we have official predictions for two other movies this weekend, starting with The Sheep Detectives…

Again, the preview numbers are looking on the high end of expectations, and we should see a solid number for this one. As a family-friendly movie that will also draw in grown-ups, the big question with this film is how good its legs are. Reviews so far point towards longevity, but whether that will be in the home or in theaters remains to be seen.

Finally, we just have a baseline prediction for concert movie Billie Eilish: Hit Me Hard and Soft—The Tour…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

If Mortal Kombat II doesn’t have great legs through the weekend, Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 are both capable of stealing the box office crown. That battle might grab some headlines, but the real news here is that we’re looking at a very strong market. The top 10 will combine to earn roughly twice what we saw this time last year, and the top three should bring in around $100 million between them.

As usual, we’ll post numbers as soon as we receive them through the weekend, and, if you need a head start on the numbers for upcoming movies, The Numbers Business Report has predictions and tracking for all movies coming up in the next 12 months.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com.

The Numbers Business Report dives into box office tracking in the age of AI

April 8, 2026

In this month’s Business Report, we take a deep dive into how the use of LLMs is changing what we can learn about the demand for upcoming movies. The key finding is that the traffic logs on The Numbers reveal both the crawls of the site used to train AI models, and live search from their AI engines as end users ask questions needing more timely information. Over time, we began to see a potential opportunity in the traffic generated by these entities.

Our website currently receives approximately 10% of its traffic from regular users and another 10% from AI agents performing live searches. These requests present an opportunity to better understand what people care about, whether it's a particular movie, genre, franchise, actor, and so on. We’ve found that requests from AI agents correlate with box office success for future releases and can be translated into a measure of audience interest.

Below is a sample table showing the number of daily requests leading up to the theatrical release for three films released in the final months of 2025. The data reveals a clear pattern: request volume increases notably around trailer releases, reflecting growing audience awareness, and continues to rise steadily in the days leading up to the theatrical release.

Due to the nature of the data, the AI monitoring system can capture requests well before a movie is released. This allows us to measure consumer interest at different stages of a movie’s lifecycle—for example, when a movie is first added to our system (typically at the time of announcement), during teaser or trailer releases, or after cast announcements.

These early insights can translate into shifts in demand long before a movie’s release, giving industry stakeholders the opportunity to react to different scenarios, such as adjusting release strategies, improving promotional materials, or planning merchandise and event activations.

In terms of improving prediction models, this data can complement existing forecasting tools by providing an additional signal of consumer interest. It enables stakeholders to predict a movie’s performance up to a year, six months, or even days before release, as well as throughout the movie’s lifecycle after release.

Starting with our April report, we will begin incorporating Live AI search data into the Business Report, tracking the number of requests for upcoming releases. Beyond reporting, we are also exploring how this data can be integrated into the forecasting models you, our readers are currently working on, potentially adding a new and valuable signal for predicting audience interest and box office performance. Finally, if you have web sites or other endpoints exposed to AI agents, we’d be interested in seeing how your data could be incorporated into a combined model.

Our team will be demoing the latest iteration of AI search monitoring system at CinemaCon, from April 13 to 16. If you’ll be there, we’d love to meet. Please drop us an email to set up a time.

The data doesn’t end there. Read the report for our full, in-depth coverage.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of April’s wide releases, including Michael and The Devil Wears Prada: 2 (among many others), along with our full 2026 predictions.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are now publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.

Contact The Numbers Business Report team.

The new The Numbers

March 11, 2026

We’re excited to announce a major update to The Numbers. We’re rebuilding the site to take advantage of new technologies and introduce a suite of new features. Look for many more updates in the days and weeks to come, but we wanted to get the site up and running on our new servers as quickly as possible so you can still get our first-in-the-industry box office reporting while we work.

We imagine you have some questions…

Where have you been?
This is a major upgrade to all our systems, from our back-end OpusData database, through The Numbers server infrastructure to the web-site front end. As is common with a major project like this, we’ve hit some issues along the way that have slowed progress. We’re working round the clock to get everything up and running… watch this space!

Where are the historical charts, movie pages, franchise information, records pages…?
We’ll be bringing back pages from the old version of the site ASAP, prioritizing the most popular pages first.

Are you going to put everything behind a paywall?
No! The Numbers has always been completely free to use, and we intend to keep it that way.

Can’t you just bring back the old site?
Unfortunately, the old site is incompatible with our new infrastructure. After careful consideration, we decided to focus our resources on improving the new site, rather than dividing our time between making the old site compatible with the new infrastructure and building the new site. That will pay off in the end, and we apologize that things will be “under construction” for a while.

We’ll post regular updates on progress here on the home page, and on social media. Feel free to message us there if you have questions, or email us at support@the-numbers.com.

We look forward to sharing new features with you soon!