What if you had only one day to change absolutely everything? Samantha Kingston has everything: the perfect friends, the perfect guy, and a seemingly perfect future. Then, everything changes. After one fateful night, Sam wakes up with no future at all. Trapped reliving the same day over and over, she begins to question just how perfect her life really was. As she begins to untangle the mystery of a life suddenly derailed, she must also unwind the secrets of the people closest to her, and discover the power of a single day to make a difference, not just in her own life, but in the lives of those around her—before she runs out of time for good.
It is another terrible week on the home market. There are three first-run releases coming out this week, which isn’t a bad number. However, all three earned terrible reviews and bombed in theaters, so you should avoid all of them. There’s not a lot of limited releases, classics, or TV on DVD releases to make up the gap, so for the second week in a row, we have a Video on Demand release topping the list of best new releases. This week it is Logan, which is one of the best wide releases of the year. I would wait for the Blu-ray, on the other hand.
Kong: Skull Island dominated the box office earning $61.03 million over the weekend. This is much better than predicted and this if reports are true, this is because it was a huge hit with families. Skull Island’s success hurt Logan, which fell to second place with $38.11 million over the weekend. Overall, the box office fell 13% from last weekend, but that’s still 22% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is even more impressive. Back-to-back wins for 2017 has cut 2016’s lead to 0.8% at just $17 million. If Beauty and the Beast does as well as some expect it to do, 2017 could take the lead by the end of this coming weekend.
The weekend belonged to Logan, as it opened with $88.41 million and easily earned first place. Second place went to Get Out, which held on far better than anticipated, while The Shack is on pace to become a midlevel hit. There was almost nothing but good news. Almost. Overall, the box office rose 53% from last weekend, earning $189 million. More importantly, the it was 16% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016; however, that gap was nearly cut in half from its peak just a couple of weeks ago. 2017 is now behind by 2.7% at $1.92 billion to $1.97 billion. If 2017 can put together a few more weeks like this, then it could climb into the lead before April begins. That is a big “if” and I would be satisfied with cutting the gap in half by the end of the month.
Logan is turning out to be everything Fox hoped for this weekend, with excellent reviews and a massive $85.3 million opening to kick off the Spring box office season. The film’s debut is a notable $20 million ahead of X-Men: Apocalypse’s $65.8 million last Summer. The only way to make it look anything less than stellar is to match it up against giants like Deadpool (which opened with $132 million in February last year), and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which holds the March weekend record of $166 million.
As expected, Logan got off to a fast start, earning $9.5 million from its Thursday preview shows. This is better than the most recent super hero movie managed, as Doctor Strange pulled in $9.4 million during its previews last November. However, it is weaker than the $12.7 million Deadpool earned around this time last year. This is almost perfectly in line with expectations and with 93% positive reviews, an $85 million opening seems likely at this point.
The first weekend of March has three wide releases, but the one everyone is talking about is Logan. It should become the biggest hit of the year so far. The other two releases are The Shack, a faith-based film, and Before I Fall, which is essentially Groundhog Day set in high school. Neither film is expected to compete for top spot. In fact, it would be a surprise if both landed in the top five. As far as holdovers are concerned, only Get Out has a shot at $20 million, while only The Lego Batman Movie will earn more than $10 million. This weekend last year, Zootopia led the way with just over $75 million, while the other two newreleases earned less than $30 million combined. 2017 will be bigger on top, won’t have as strong new releases overall, but should have about the same depth.
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
While there are three wide releases coming out next week, only one of them, Logan, is earning any real buzz. In fact, it is likely Logan will have the biggest opening of the year and could earn more during its opening day than either Before I Fall or The Shack earn in total. Because of this, it is the only sensible choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Logan.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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