August 8th, 2018
It is a deceptively busy week on the home market, and not in a good way. There’s no one big release, at least not on DVD / Blu-ray, but there’s a sea of mediocrity this week. I’m not talking about quality here, but sales rank. There are a lot of films that wouldn’t even be filler during a normal week, but this week are selling well enough to be mentioned. There are several that are worth picking up, including limited releases like Bye Bye Germany and Revenge, classics like The Changeling, and even some Anime titles like Big Fish & Begonia or Tsuredure Children. Deadpool 2 is by far the biggest release of the week and I suspect the Blu-ray will be the Pick of the Week when it comes out, but I don’t want to give it that title until than. As a result, there’s no real winner this week. There were a lot that came close.
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August 5th, 2018
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Breaking In wasn’t a big hit at the box office, but it did well enough to cover its production budget during its opening weekend and will likely break even early in its home market run. The film does have a good hook, so I’m not surprised it did as well as it did, but does it have anything more?
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July 24th, 2018
It is an incredibly slow week on the home market. Most of the films in the main list would be filler on even a below average week. The only real exception is Ready Player One, which did earn better than expected reviews, but it’s still not Pick of the Week material. There were a few actual contenders for that title, including Gravity Falls: The Complete Series and A Matter of Life and Death, but in the end, I went with In the Mouth of Madness on Blu-ray.
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May 22nd, 2018
Deadpool 2 didn’t live up to expectations at the box office, but you can’t really complain about a $125.51 million opening weekend. The other new releases were Book Club, which did acceptable business, while the less said about Show Dogs’ debut the better. Overall, the box office rose 51% from last weekend earning $209 million. This is 69% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is now ahead of 2017 by a margin of $290 million or 7.0% at $4.49 billion to $4.20 billion. Because Infinity War opened a week earlier than usual, it has been hard to compare the overall box office, but now it is safe to say 2018 has a sizable lead over 2017, one that should grow next weekend as well.
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May 20th, 2018
Deadpool 2 broke records during its previews and stumbled a little on Friday, before finishing the weekend with an estimated $125 million. That’s still a fantastic result, more than the $110 million it reportedly cost to make, and more than the total box office earned this weekend last year. That said, it is way below the $150 million many thought it would earn after the preview numbers were announced. This isn’t as good as Deadpool’s opening weekend; however, that film benefited from Valentine’s day landing on Sunday, while this film will get some help next weekend, as it is Memorial Day long weekend. Furthermore, both films earned nearly identical reviews and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so this film's legs should be decent. We will have a better idea where it will end up next weekend.
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May 17th, 2018
May gets its first monster hit, as Deadpool 2 debuts in theaters this weekend. The film is earning impressive reviews and was widely expected to top the original's opening weekend. Neither of the two other new releases are expected to compete for first place, or even second place, as Avengers: Infinity War has that locked down. Book Club should open in third place with more than $10 million, but that’s not a guarantee. Meanwhile, Show Dogs’ buzz is so quiet that I’m have trouble coming up with a prediction. This weekend last year, Alien: Covenant opened in first place, but with only $36.16 million. If Deadpool 2 doesn’t top that opening night, then I will be shocked. In fact, Deadpool 2 should earn more by itself than the total box office from this weekend last year.
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May 15th, 2018
The weekend was better than expected, for the most part. All of the holdovers, including the number one film, Avengers: Infinity War, held on better than we predicted, while one of the two new releases also opened faster. Life of the Party was the only film in the top five that didn’t beat expectations. Overall, the box office still slipped 19% from last week, down to $137 million. However, this is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 maintains a strong 5.2% / $210 million lead over 2017 at $4.24 billion to $4.03 billion.
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May 12th, 2018
Avengers: Infinity War was on the high end of expectations on Friday with $16.00 million during its 15th day of release. This puts it on pace for $62 million during its third weekend of release for a running tally of $548 million. It became the second fastest film to reach $500 million domestically, getting there a day faster than The Last Jedi did. The film also debuted in China earning $60.73 million on Friday, $70.06 million including previews. Only Monster Hunt 2 and The Fate of the Furious had faster starts.
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May 11th, 2018
Life of the Party only managed $700,000 during its previews, which is well below the $985,000 The Boss managed two years ago. If this film has the same legs, it will open with just under $17 million. Granted, Life of the Party is earning better reviews, so it could perform a little better over the weekend, but matching our $21 million prediction might be asking too much.
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May 10th, 2018
Avengers: Infinity War will have no trouble earning first place for the third time at the box office chart. It’s only competition is the sophomore stint of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which earned $65 million this weekend last year. Hopefully Infinity War will come within $10 million of that. As for the new releases, Life of the Party should earn more than all three new releases earned last weekend, while Breaking In is on track for an opening in the low to mid teens. If all three films can meet these expectations, then 2018 will have a shot at winning in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 1st, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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