December 12th, 2019
The Screen Actors Guild announced their nominations this week and we are starting to see some patterns with similar names appearing over and over again. This time Bombshell led the way, earning four nominations, but four other films earned two or more nominations.
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December 11th, 2019
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As Christmas rapidly approaches, the number of home market releases shrinks. That said, we do have three $100 million hits on this week’s list, Hustlers, It: Chapter Two, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. All three are worth picking up, but Hustlers and Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice are Pick of the Week contenders, with the former winning out.
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December 11th, 2019
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. (This is especially true on the TV end, as there’s talk about how strange the nominations are this year.) Marriage Story led the way with six nominations, just ahead of The Irishman and Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood, both of which picked up five nods.
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November 27th, 2019
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This year, Thanksgiving is as late as it could have been, which means there’s no way to squeeze in four weeks of regular installments of the gift guide, as well as the December monthly preview, etc. So we are going to have a condensed list this year. That said, there weren’t a ton of first-run releases that would have made this list regardless.
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November 27th, 2019
It is an even worse week on the home market than it was last week. There are two Pick of the Week contenders, MST3K: The Gauntlet and RoboCop: Limited Edition Collector’s Set. The latter has far more extras, but it has also been released on the home market far too many times. It’s not even the first time it has come out on Blu-ray. It was still a very close competitoion, but in the end, MST3K won the title of Pick of the Week.
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November 21st, 2019
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced and thus the 2020 Awards Season begins. There are two changes to this year’s coverage of Awards Season. Firstly, we’re going back to using the year the awards are handed out and not the year the movie came out, even though the latter makes so much more sense. We are doing this, because every one else does this and being accurate takes a back seat to being easily understood. Secondly, since the Independent Spirit Awards are not particularly good indicators of Oscar success, we are just going to do summaries and not a full list of nominees.
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October 8th, 2019
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Joker easily dominated the weekend box office crushing Venom’s October record in the process. The film’s $96.20 million opening was more than 60% of the $150 million total box office earned this weekend. Furthermore, the weekend total was 64% more than last weekend, which is great news for 2019, as it has been struggling. Unfortunately, this is still 15% lower than the same weekend last year when Venom had A Star is Born opening strong as counter-programing. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $8.46 billion, which is a lot, but it is 5.2% or $470 million behind 2018’s record-setting pace of $8.93 billion.
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October 6th, 2019
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Joker is not only dominating the weekend, likely earning more than the rest of the films in release combined, but it will also top Venom’s October record by more than $10 million. Its domestic weekend estimate is $93.5 million, which is only dwarfed by its international debut. The film is projected to earn $140.5 million on 22,500 screens in 73 markets during its opening weekend. Highlights includes A $16.3 million debut on 1,418 screens in South Korea, which is a record opening for Warner Bros. in that market. It wasn’t able to break records in the U.K., but is still very impressive at $14.8 million on 669 screens, while it also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($13.1 million on 4,684 screens) and Russia ($10 million on 1,907.
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October 5th, 2019
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Joker opened with an outstanding $39.9 million on Friday, topping the previous biggest October day record of $33.08 million set last year by Halloween. This film does have weaker reviews and only a B plus from CinemaScore, which means its word-of-mouth won’t be as great. Additionally, a larger percent of its opening day came from previews, which is another sign it likely won’t have great legs. That said, it would really have to stumble to not get at least close to $100 million over the full weekend. It is not doing quite as well internationally, but close enough that it could earn enough during its opening weekend that it will cover its entire production budget. It will break even before Halloween.
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October 4th, 2019
Joker is the only wide release of the week and this should help it thrive at the box office. In fact, there are many who think it will top Venom’s October record. Venom set that record this weekend last year, so if it breaks the record that’s good news for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison, right? It’s not that simple, as A Star is Born also debut this weekend last year and that depth will likely prove too much for 2019 to overcome.
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October 1st, 2019
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Abominable led the way at the box office this weekend, but there wasn’t a lot to celebrate. That film merely did okay for this time of year, while there were no other new releases to boost the box office. This led to a 25% drop-off from last weekend, down to a mere $92 million. Worse still, this is 13% lower than the same weekend last year when Night School and Smallfoot were a strong one-two box office punch. We’ve had a couple of winning weeks in a row, so this loss doesn’t hurt 2019’s chances too much and the deficit is practically the same as it was last week at 5.6% or $490 million at $8.28 billion to $8.77 billion.
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September 29th, 2019
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It is a mixed bag at the box office this weekend. None of the films are bombing, there are also no wild success stories either. Abominable is leading the way with an estimated $20.85 million opening. This is a little below expectations, but still a fine opening for this time of year. Additionally, its prospects have improved over the weekend, so it is clear its reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore have helped its word-of-mouth and that should help its legs going forward. The film also earned an estimated $8.8 million internationally in 30 markets for an early international total of $10.2 million It is still too early to judge how the film will do overseas.
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September 28th, 2019
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Abominable bounced back a bit during Friday to earn $5.69 million. This is still behind Smallfoot’s opening Friday, but it is better than its previews. This is strong evidence that the film’s reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore is already having a positive effect. $20 million is now much more likely than it was yesterday at this time, while with a little luck, it will match our $22 million prediction.
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September 26th, 2019
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The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film.
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September 23rd, 2019
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It was a strong weekend with almost every film in the top five topping predictions. Downton Abbey dominated the chart with $31.03 million, breaking the record for an opening weekend by a Focus Features film in the process. Both Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood also beat expectations, albeit by much, much smaller margins. This helped the overall box office grow 12% from last weekend to $123 million. More importantly, this is 34% higher than the same weekend last year. I was expecting substantial growth, but not this much growth. Granted, 2019 is still behind 2018, but the lead has been cut to 5.5% or $470 million at $8.14 billion to $8.61 billion. Furthermore, if we have a few more good weeks, then optimism will actually return to the box office analysis.
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September 22nd, 2019
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Downton Abbey is not only going to earn first place on the weekend box office chart, but it is going to set the record for Focus Features with an opening weekend of $31.0 million. This is substantially more than predicted and substantially more than Focus Features’ previous best opening weekend of $22.69 million earned by Insidious Chapter 3. Additionally, thanks to its reviews, its A-rating from CinemaScore, and its more mature target demographic, it has a real chance at $100 million domestically. Or it could have a serious Fanboy Effect, because it is a TV adaptation. We will know more next weekend.
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September 21st, 2019
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Downton Abbey stunned analysts with an opening day of $13.38 million on Friday. However, this does include two days of previews, so keep that in mind going forward. The film’s reviews are in the 80% range, while it managed an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest longer than average legs, but not enough to deal with the two days of previews. It should open with more than $30 million, which is not only much better than anticipated, it will be the best opening weekend for Focus Features.
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September 20th, 2019
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A better than expected opening by Hustlers and a stronger than expected hold by It: Chapter Two helped 2019 earn its second win in the year-over-year comparison last weekend. Meanwhile, we have three new releases hoping to extend the winning streak this weekend. Unfortanately, all three films have something holding them back. For example, Ad Astra was made by Fox before the merger with Disney and I’m not sure Disney is 100% behind this movie. Downton Abbey is based on a recent TV show and people are not always willing to go to the theater and spend money on something they could recently watch on TV for free. Finally, Rambo: Last Blood is earning weak reviews and that could hurt its box office chances. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, The House with a Clock in its Walls opened with $26.61 million, while A Simple Favor was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. This weekend, we could have no movie earn more than $20 million, but there are five films that should have no trouble getting to $10 million. This depth could help extend 2019’s winning streak to three weeks.
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September 19th, 2019
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Mr. Klein, a 40-year old re-release, earned first place on the theater average chart during its second weekend of release with $18,546 in one theater. Up next was The Bad Guys: Reign of Chaos with an average of $14,418 in two theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was Hustlers, which barely got there earning an average of $10,210 in 3,250 theaters.
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September 17th, 2019
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It: Chapter Two and Hustlers both topped expectations by large margins over the weekend and that helped the overall box office earn $110 million. Granted, this is 20% lower than last weekend; however, this was also 2.2% higher than the same weekend last year and that is by far the more important detail. 2019 is still behind 2018, but the gap closed by a little bit and is now at 5.9% or $500 million at $7.98 billion to $8.48 billion. Fortunately, the international box office is doing better and overall 2019 is merely mediocre and it still has time to improve.
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September 15th, 2019
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It is shaping up to be a great weekend at the box office with both Hustlers and It: Chapter Two topping expectations. It: Chapter Two is going to repeat on top, with an estimated sophomore stint of $40.74 million for a running tally of $153.80 million. This represents a 55% decline, which is certainly fantastic for a horror sequel. It still likely means $250 million domestically is out of the question, but even $200 million is amazing for a movie that cost less than $70 million to make. Internationally, the film pulled in another $47 million in 78 markets for a two-week total of $169.5 million. It has already made over $300 million worldwide, which might be enough to break even, depending on its advertising budget and exact share of the box office. If not, it will break even very shortly.
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September 14th, 2019
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Hustlers did surprisingly well to earn first place on Friday with an estimated $13.1 million. This puts it on pace for $32 million over the full weekend, which is more than enough for the biggest opening in STX Entertainment’s history and the biggest live-action opening in Jennifer Lopez’s career. It is not that far behind Crazy Rich Asians’ five-day opening and will also be Constance Wu’s best opening. There’s more good news: The film’s reviews are the best in the top ten at 87% positive and STX Entertainment has tended to have a lot of success giving their films long legs. The Bad Moms franchise is evidence of that. On the downside, the movie only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, but it is a dark comedy and those can be divisive. Additionally, while it earned first place on Friday, it won’t stay there for long.
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September 13th, 2019
Hustlers started its box office run with $2.5 million in previews last night. This is a faster start than other comparable releases, including the $2 million earned by Bad Moms in 2016. There is some bad news, but only for analysts like myself. There are not a lot of films like this released each year, so there is still a lot of uncertainty going forward. On the positive side, its reviews remain just shy of 90% positive, so the word-of-mouth should be phenomenal. Meanwhile, its target audience isn’t the kind that rushes out to see a movie opening night, so it should do even better during the rest of the weekend. On the low end, it will open with $20 million, which is very close to its $20.7 million production budget. On the high end, it could reach $30 million and break records for both the studio, STX Entertainment, and the lead actress, Jennifer Lopez. (Although in the latter case, it would be her live-action record.) I think the higher end is more likely, which means the movie should top our $24 million prediction.
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September 12th, 2019
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There are only two wide releases this weekend, Hustlers and The Goldfinch. The buzz surrounding Hustlers has grown at the perfect time, but it has a non-zero chance of topping It: Chapter Two for top spot on the weekend box office chart. On the other hand, The Goldfinch is seen as busted Oscar-bait and will only open in the top five due to extremely weak competition. This weekend last year, The Predator earned first place with close to $25 million, while the other two wide releases earned about that combined. This means last year’s three new releases will be more potent than this year’s two new releases, but I think 2019 will earn a comfortable win, in part thanks to this year’s much better depth.
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September 1st, 2019
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Summer ended on a thoroughly mediocre note, with more August releases missing expectations than topping them. That said, it wasn’t a complete mess, with Hobbs and Shaw doing extremely well internationally, and some others heading towards profitability, if not becoming spectacular hits. September, on the other hand, should be one of the best months in the year, at least on the year-over-year competition. The month starts with It: Chapter Two, which could open with more than $100 million. By comparison, last September, only one film, The Nun, earned more than $100 million in total. Additionally, Abominable has a slim but realistic chance at reaching the $100 million milestone, so it should be a great month on the year-over-year comparison. 2019 isn’t going to catch up to 2018, but it should narrow the gap considerably.
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August 12th, 2019
Black comedy starring Jennifer Lopez, Constance We, Julia Stiles and Keke Palmer opens September 13 ... Full Movie Details.
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