Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Contest: Live or Die

July 29th, 2016

Next week is the first week of August and only two wide releases are coming out: Nine Lives and Suicide Squad. ... It is not going to be a competitive weekend at the box office. There are many who think Suicide Squad will earn well over $100 million during its opening weekend, so there’s little doubt it should be the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Suicide Squad.

The main prize this week is a John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle that includes five Blu-rays, plus a Digital Download Code. The bundle is lead by I Am Wrath (Blu-ray Combo Pack), as well as The Forger (Blu-ray); From Paris With Love (Blu-ray); The Punisher (Blu-ray); Pulp Fiction (Blu-ray); and She’s So Lovely (Digital Downloads).

To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be in the running for the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. To determine the winner, we will look at the participant who came the closest without going over and the participant who came the closest without going under. Whoever is closest among those two wins the John Travolta Blu-ray Bundle. The other will win a pair of previously reviewed movies.

Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a pair of previously reviewed movies.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases Served with Drawn Butter

May 13th, 2016

It's a relatively good week for limited releases with several that are earning excellent reviews. Of these, The Lobster is the one I think will do the best at the box office. Kill Zone 2, Love & Friendship, and some others are also earning excellent reviews, but are playing in VOD. More...