Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Shang-Chi still rules as industry braces for worst weekend since May

September 24th, 2021

Dear Evan Hansen will be taking a long-shot swing at unseating Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings from the top of the chart this weekend. Our model, and the movie’s preview numbers, suggest it’ll fall some way short, giving the Marvel action movie a fourth straight weekend at the top of the chart. That’s the longest continuous run at the top since Tenet dominated the pandemic-ravaged chart in September last year (The Croods: A New Age also spent five weeks at number one, split between December and February, but didn’t have four straight weekends at the top). The limited number of major new releases since Shang-Chi came out is significantly hitting the market as a whole, and this will be the slowest weekend at the box office since Spiral’s $4.6-million second weekend was enough to give it a weekend win back on May 21. More...

Weekend estimates: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard debuts with $11.675 million

June 20th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard favorite to win weekend

June 18th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard looks like it should win the weekend fairly comfortably based on its opening day figures from Wednesday and the track record of action comedies that opened mid-week. Nothing is assured in the topsy-turvy world of 2021, but it would take a steep dive from the newcomer and an unexpectedly strong hold by A Quiet Place: Part II to see a different outcome.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place: Part II has the edge in four-way race

June 13th, 2021

We won’t know for sure until final numbers are reported on Monday, but it looks as though A Quiet Place: Part II will move back to the top of the box office chart this weekend, fractionally edging out In the Heights. The difference in their respective Sunday-morning projections is just $245,000 though, with Quiet Place expected to earn $11.65 million and In the Heights $11.405 million, which is within the margin of error (particularly considering box office is harder to predict for the studios at the moment as market conditions are changing so much). In fact, Peter Rabbit 2 (projected to earn $10.4 million) and The Conjuring 3 (projected for $10.02 million) are technically still in the running for the win, although that would be a big surprise given they’re over a million dollars back on today’s tracking.

However things shake out, there’s a good chance we’ll have four films earn over $10 million at the box office this weekend, which would be a new pandemic-era high if the numbers hold. The less good news is that In the Heights didn’t hit, well, the heights that were hoped for going into the weekend. It did come very close to what our model expected though. More...

In the Heights new trailer

March 15th, 2021

Lin-Manuel Miranda musical starring Anthony Ramos, directed by Jon M. Chu opens in theaters and on HBO Max on June 18. Full movie details…

Lights up on Washington Heights…The scent of a cafecito caliente hangs in the air just outside of the 181st Street subway stop, where a kaleidoscope of dreams rallies this vibrant and tight-knit community. At the intersection of it all is the likeable, magnetic bodega owner Usnavi, who saves every penny from his daily grind as he hopes, imagines and sings about a better life. More...

In The Heights Trailer

December 12th, 2019

Musical, based on the Lin-Manuel Miranda Broadway show opens June 26 ... Full Movie Details. More...