Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Nobody maintains market momentum

March 28th, 2021

An excellent opening for Nobody is more than making up for sluggish results for returning films this weekend and keeps the market recovery on course. More or less. More...

Weekend estimates: Lift-off?

March 21st, 2021

We’ve seen glimmers of a light at the end of the tunnel already this year, but this weekend provides the strongest sign so far that the theatrical market is starting to recover from its pandemic lows. Every returning movie in the top six is outperforming our model’s expectations by about 20%, and The Courier will come in around 40% ahead of our prediction. And our model factors in reopened theaters, so those figures indicate that an increasing number of traditional moviegoers are returning.

Here are the details… More...

Weekend predictions: Raya headed for weekend win as more theaters reopen

March 19th, 2021

Raya and the Last Dragon should post another win at the box office this weekend as new theater reopenings and strong word of mouth are set to boost its performance. Our model predicts it will decline just 28% in its third weekend to $4.09 million while Tom and Jerry is likely to be down around 24% to $3.08 million. Although it isn’t likely to challenge the current top two, new release The Courier should land in the top four and keep the overall market from declining too sharply this weekend. More...

The Courier trailer

January 28th, 2021

Spy thriller starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Rachel Brosnahan opens in theaters on February 19 ... Full Movie Details.

Businessman Greville Wynne and prim but warm housewife Sheila lead a properly quiet English life. When rumblings of a mole in the Soviet Union government reach British intelligence agent Dickie Franks and CIA official Emily Donovan, Greville is called upon by his country precisely for his ordinariness. He is thrown into the political conflict, and as his efforts to end the Cuban Missile Crisis deepen, he forges an unbreakable bond with his informant, Oleg, that will be put to the ultimate test. Pressured by Sheila’s suspicion of his secrecy and as the Soviets close in on the plot, Greville proves himself not to be ordinary at all. More...

Limited and Virtual Releases: Will Limited Releases Deliver?

August 28th, 2020

It is a poor week generally for limited releases, with only a couple earning any real buzz: The Courier and Fatima. With actual wide releases this week, the competition is much greater than it’s been for months, which makes conditions challenging for these releases, to say the least. On the bright side, while things are still tough, this week sees a more typical mix of independent and genre films than we’ve seen recently. Here’s a rundown of the films that are doing their bit to help move the theatrical market back towards nomalcy. More...