Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Freaky top at the box office in an ailing theatrical market

November 22nd, 2020

Freaky will remain top at the domestic box office this weekend in spite of a steep 66% decline from its opening weekend. Its win at the box office was practically guaranteed going into the weekend, with Vanguard, the only new wide release, playing in a more modest 1,375 theaters for indie distributor Gravitas Ventures (it is now projected to open with $400,000). Freaky’s steep decline was also expected, with our model predicting a $1.56 million weekend and a decline of 57%. The fact that it fell 20% short of that low figure is a measure of how audience attitudes are changing towards the theatrical experience as COVID-19 cases rise steeply across the United States. More...

Weekend predictions: Freaky set to stay top as theaters suffer from new pandemic shutdowns

November 20th, 2020

Vanguard will attempt to dislodge Freaky from its perch atop the domestic box office chart this weekend. Even though the new release stars Jackie Chan and earned around $45 million in its native China, our model thinks it’ll struggle to do so. But that skirmish is a sideshow this weekend as theaters are taking another blow from the surging pandemic and related lockdowns. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky fails to deliver

November 15th, 2020

Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong? More...