Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend predictions: Little Mermaid shoots for $100 million on crowded weekend

May 26th, 2023

The Little Mermaid will swim off with the box office crown this Memorial Day weekend, and will almost certainly hit $100 million over the full four-day weekend. The big question as of Friday is whether it will pass $100 million by close of business on Sunday. Our model thinks it’ll be close, but may be underestimating the aquatic adventure’s chances. More...

Weekend predictions: Mario to beat five new rivals for box office glory

April 21st, 2023

After no less than six new wide releases last weekend, five more films arrive in over 600 theaters this time around, but none will topple The Super Mario Bros. Movie as the top-earning film in North America. Evil Dead Rise will most likely come the closest, and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant should find a place in the top ten. The fortunes of Beau is Afraid, Chevalier, and Somewhere in Queens is harder to predict. One or two of them could hit the top ten, but it seems unlikely all three will manage the feat. More...

Weekend predictions: $40 million on the cards for Creed III

March 3rd, 2023

Creed III looks likely to have the best opening weekend for a film in the Creed franchise, which (not adjusted for inflation) would also give it the best opening for a Rocky movie too, at least based on its excellent $5.45 million in previews, and our model’s expectations. Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre looks like an also-ran, unfortunately. Meanwhile, Ant-Man and Cocaine Bear keep things interesting as our model picks apart this weekend’s box office prospects. More...

Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre trailer

February 27th, 2023

Super spy Orson Fortune and his team of top operatives recruit Hollywood’s biggest movie star, Danny Francesco, to help them on an undercover mission to stop billionaire arms broker Greg Simmonds from selling a deadly new weapons technology that threatens to disrupt the world order. More...