Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for April 30, 2019

April 30th, 2019

The spring doldrums continue with very few major releases and almost no big hits arriving on the home market this week. There are a couple of titles competing for Pick of the Week: Police Story Double-Shot and Arctic. Both are worth owning, but I went with Police Story as the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for April 23rd, 2019

April 24th, 2019

It is another slow week on the home market, but that gave me a chance to complete a couple of late reviews. The best release on this week’s list is A Face in the Crowd and it is the Pick of the Week. However, both of the late reviews, On the Basis of Sex and Willie Dynamite, are worth picking up. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Dumbo Soar Like the Original Did?

March 29th, 2019

Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Super Bowl Wasn’t Super and Neither was the Box Office

February 5th, 2019

The Super Bowl broke records, but not in a good way. (Lowest scoring Super Bowl... ever.) Even so, the Super Bowl still had a devastating effect on the box office leading to arguably the worst Super Bowl weekend box office results since 1999. More on that year later. As expected, Glass earned first place on the weekend box office chart with $9.55 million, but it is never a good sign when the number one film earns less than $10 million. The best / only new release was Miss Bala, which only managed $6.86 million. Overall, the box office fell 27% from last week down to just $72 million. Hopefully this is the worst weekend of the entire year. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2019 has pulled in $866 million, which is $160 million or 16% lower than 2018’s pace. This is the worst start in terms of raw dollars since 2012 and the worst start in terms of tickets sold since 1999. However, the box office will pick up in March and while I don’t think we’ll match last year’s record pace, we also won’t see a once in a decade slump either. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: January Ends on a Quiet Note

January 29th, 2019

2019 has been off to a slow start and that certainly didn’t change this past weekend. Glass and the holdovers held up better than expected, but the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, both went nowhere. This led to the weekend box office haul falling below the $100 million mark at just $97 million. This is 25% lower than last weekend and 31% lower than the same weekend last year, when Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. Year-to-date, 2019 is already down by $100 million; $764 million to $871 million and it’s not going to get better in February. More...

Weekend Estimates: Glass and Others put a Ceiling on New Releases

January 27th, 2019

Glass bounced back after a weak Friday earning an estimated $19.05 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $73.59 million. This is even better than our original prediction. It’s practically guaranteed to get to $100 million domestically, while it is doing a little better internationally. This weekend it pulled in $23.6 million for a two-week total of $89.1 million. The film has yet to open in China and when it does, it will get past $250 million worldwide. More...

Friday Estimates: 2019 Continues its Cold Start

January 26th, 2019

It was a Friday to forget, and it’s going to be another bad weekend at the box office. Glass fell 69% from its opening Friday to $4.98 million this Friday. This is a sharper decline than anticipated, but even so, it should still earn a little more than $16 million over the full weekend, keeping it on pace for $100 million domestically. In other words, while this is a faster decline than predicted, it is not so fast that anyone should panic. More...

Thursday Night Previews: No News is Good News, Right?

January 25th, 2019

Neither The Kid Who Would Be King nor Serenity held Thursday previews, so there’s nothing to report on that front. That said, early industry tracking suggests I was a little too optimistic with The Kid Who Would Be King and it will likely have to settle for third place with under $10 million. As expected, Serenity is in a fight for fifth place and if it stumbles even a little over the rest of the weekend, it could land below the Mendoza Line. More...

Weekend Predictions: It Looks Like it will be a Serene Weekend

January 25th, 2019

The weekend after a long weekend is rarely a good weekend to release a movie and there are only two films attempting this challenge this week. The Kid Who Would Be King is a live-action family film and those rarely do well at the box office. Serenity is... a movie... that... If what I read about the film’s surprise twist is correct, then this film could earn a D or worse from CinemaScore. Glass will remain at the top of the box office, unless something truly strange happens. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Death Cure opened with $24.17 million. That’s more than this week’s two releases will earn combined. It’s going to be another bad week for 2019. More...

Preview: January

January 1st, 2019

December would have been an excellent month, except it had to be compared to Star Wars: The Last Jedi. The top four movies of this December might not finish with as much as that movie made. That said, the year ended on an overall positive note finishing with a lead of close to $800 million over 2017. Unfortunately, 2019 is going to get off to a slow start. Not only are there very few films opening wide this month, only one of them, Glass, is expected to be a midlevel hit or better. Granted, Glass is expected to earn more than $100 million domestically, which is something no film released last January could do. However, The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both had such incredible legs that 2019 will still get off to a slower start, even if it has stronger new releases. More...

Serenity Trailer

August 18th, 2018

Thriller starring Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway opens October 19 ... Full Movie Details.

A fishing boat captain’s mysterious past, in the form of a glamorous woman, crashes up against his simple life on a small island in the Caribbean and ensnares him in a new reality that might not be all it seems. More...