December 26th, 2016
This Tuesday is the day after Boxing Day. I don’t know if there is a worse possible day to release something on the home market. There are a few films on this week’s list you could call busted Oscar bait, but almost nothing that is a contender for Pick of the Week. Fortunately, it is almost nothing and not completely nothing. A Man Called Ove is the best release and the DVD or Blu-ray are clearly the Pick of the Week.
September 15th, 2016
There are three wide releases this week, plus another that could sneak into the top ten. Two of the three new releases, Blair Witch and Bridget Jones’s Baby, are expected to do well. On the other hand, Snowden is only going to reach the top five due to the lack of competition. Meanwhile, Hillsong: Let Hope Rise is a faith-based concert film. It could reach the top five, or it could miss the Mendoza Line. There’s no way to predict its box office potential. Despite the number of new releases, Sully is expected to remain in top spot thanks to its reviews and target demographic. This weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials led the way with just over $30 million. It is likely no film will make that this year, while the depth is a mixed bag, so it looks like 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
September 13th, 2016
Four films opened wide or semi-wide over the weekend, but only one of them, Sully, did well at the box office. It earned more than double its nearest competition, When the Bough Breaks, at $35.03 million to $14.20 million. The other two new releases bombed. Overall, the box office was flat, up 1.1% from last weekend to $101 million. This was also flat when compared to last year, down just 1.7%. Since this weekend was so close to last weekend, it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year comparison hardly moved. This time last week, 2016 was ahead of 2016 by just over 6.7%, while this week its lead is just under 6.8% at $8.10 billion to $7.58 billion.
September 11th, 2016
September 8th, 2016
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year. However, this year there two films opening wide that have a real shot at $20 million or more. Sully is Oscar-bait, but it is opening a little too early for that role and its reviews are a little below where they need to be. When the Bough Breaks is a thriller aimed at African-Americans and this time of year has become the perfect time to release such a film. Those two films should earn $50 million combined. Unfortunately, there are two other films coming out this week. The Wild Life is a third-tier animated film, while The Disappointments Room isn’t even opening truly wide. There’s a chance neither of them will reach the top five. The Disappointments Room likely won’t reach the top ten. This weekend last year, the top two films were The Perfect Guy and The Visit, which combined earned just over $50 million at the box office. It should be a really close race in the year-over-year competition.
September 1st, 2016
There may be as many as four wide releases coming out next week; however, the weekend will be a two-horse race between Sully and When the Bough Breaks. Sully should have no trouble being the biggest hit overall, but When the Bough Breaks is a thriller and those films tend to open a lot faster, but collapse quickly. Because of that, it has a chance at earning first place during its opening weekend. In these cases, I flip a coin to decide which film should be the target film and Sully is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Sully.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
September 1st, 2016
August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.