October 8th, 2020
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The War with Grandpa opens in 2,250 theaters this weekend, making it the first truly-wide new release since Infidel back on September 25. Family movies have generally looked weak during the pandemic, but Hocus Pocus did surprisingly well last weekend, earning $1.925 million. Given Grandpa’s wider release and relative freshness, it might have a shot at toppling Tenet from the top of the chart, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. In fact, the re-release of Coco might have a better chance.
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August 8th, 2017
Summer has likely ended at the box office, while it is about to begin on the home market. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 is the first of the summer monster hits to come out on the home market. Granted, it is only out on Video on Demand this week, but it is still a contender for Pick of the Week. There are a couple of other contenders, including Cinematic Titanic: The Complete Collection and Re-Animator: Limited Edition 2-Disc Blu-ray, but in the end, I went with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
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May 23rd, 2017
As expected, Alien: Covenant earned first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it had a strange journey there. Everything, Everything earned more during its opening weekend than it cost to make, which is great news for the studio. On the other hand, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul will be the last entry in this franchise for a long time. Meanwhile, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 became only the second film released in 2017 to hit $300 million domestically. Unfortunately, the good news didn’t outweigh the bad news and the overall box office fell 10% from last weekend to $122 million. Compared to last year, the weekend box office was 11% lower. Fortunately, 2017 still has a $130 million lead over 2016 at $4.23 billion to $4.10 billion, so there’s no reason to panic.
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May 18th, 2017
Alien: Covenant is looking to unseat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything are just trying to survive in counter-programming roles. The prognosis for those two is mixed. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. This year, there might be only two. Hopefully the new releases aren’t that bad, while the holdovers don’t completely collapse. If this happens, 2017 could win in the year-over-year comparison for the second weekend in a row. If not, then 2017's winning streak will end at one.
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May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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October 1st, 2016
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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October 14th, 2014
There were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that just missed that mark. Despite the competition, Gone Girl remained in first place and it earned a little more than expected. The biggest surprise was Dracula Untold, which earned first place on Friday and nearly took first place over the weekend. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day grabbed third place, while there were other reasons to celebrate lower on the chart as well. Overall, the box office was on par with last weekend at $147 million. It was technically higher, but by 0.2%. Compared to last year, the box office was 26% higher, which was much better than anticipated. 2014 is still well behind 2013 by more than $300 million at $7.87 billion to $8.18 million, but every little bit helps. At this point, we are more concerned about limiting the losses than we are worried about completing the comeback.
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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