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Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

The Numbers Business Report rolls out our full predictions for 2026 at the box office

November 21st, 2025

This month’s edition of The Numbers Business Report, features our biggest annual study: our predictions for the domestic theatrical market in 2026. Not only do we present detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for 2026 Q4 wide releases, but we also have our overall predictions for the year. Our feature article dives into the yearly forecast, going into depth on wide releases earning > $200 million, other wide releases (>2,000 theaters), limited and specialty releases (<2,000 theaters), limited engagement re-releases (<2,000 theaters), holdovers from the previous year, and currently undated films.

If you’re a regular reader, you may have noticed that we've refined exactly what we mean by a “wide release” for this study. To qualify as a wide release in our OpusData database and here on The Numbers website, a movie needs to play in 600 domestic theaters. Back when we started collecting box office reports in 1997, that represented a significant investment on the part of the distributor, since it meant shipping at least 600 prints of a film to theaters throughout North America. Today, getting a movie into 600 theaters isn’t nearly the same logistical challenge, and there are far more movies released each year that meet our database’s definition of “wide.” Unfortunately, many of those movies also don’t report box office, or have more niche releases—perhaps playing only a few times over a weekend in a theater, and targeting a very specific audience.

Trying to compile predictions for all of the “wide” releases by our traditional metric has become a fool’s errand, and for the 2026 prediction, we’ve moved the line for a wide release, for the purposes of prediction, to be one that plays in at least 2,000 theaters at some point in its run. That covers all the major studio releases, plus quite a lot of independent films, and gives us a good set for our predictions. In fact, earnings for films playing in over 2,000 theaters represent over 92% of reported box office this year, and we expect those releases to hold a similar market share in 2026. Of course, we still take the remaining 8% seriously, and our 2026 forecast includes predictions for limited and specialty releases and re-releases, which still represent a half-billion-dollar market.

Right now, it looks as though the final number for 2025 will be within 5% of our original prediction of $9.3 million twelve months ago. That would mark four straight years of being within 5% of the actual year-end total 13 months in advance.

To view our full prediction, subscribe here. As a sneak peek, the top-earning film during the year is expected to be The Super Mario Galaxy. The franchise has already broken records, with its first installment becoming the first video-game adaptation to gross more than $1 billion worldwide, and earning $575 million in North America.

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The Numbers Business Report: 2026 Q3 Box Office Prediction

November 3rd, 2025

The last two Business Reports featured our first analysis of 2026, with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first and second quarters. In the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report, we continue building out predictions for 2026, shifting our focus towards the beginning of the end of the year. Our feature article presents our first full-quarter prediction, along with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases scheduled for that period.

July’s releases dominate the third quarter at the box office, led by major franchise continuations and the highly anticipated Christopher Nolan film, The Odyssey. Predicted to claim the number one spot in the third quarter is the next in the Spider-Man/MCU franchise, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, following Spider-Man: No Way Home, which earned $814.81 million domestically.

Another significant continuation arrives from Illumination’s Minions/Despicable Me franchises (which have earned $1.95 billion to date) with Minions 3. Other notable franchise releases include the live-action Moana, a sixth Insidious movie, Clayface joining the DC Universe, a reboot of the Resident Evil franchise, a Practical Magic 28th-anniversary reunion, and an Evil Dead spin-off.

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Theater counts: Bullet Train accelerates to the top as it and Easter Sunday open wide

August 4th, 2022

Like last week, two new wide releases grace movie theaters across North America this weekend in the form of the violent action-comedy Bullet Train, and holiday comedy, Easter Sunday. Opening in 4,317 theaters, Bullet Train is directed by David Leitch and contains a large ensemble cast, led by Brad Pitt as an experienced but unlucky assassin named “Ladybug”. Co-starring with Pitt is Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, and Andrew Koji among others. The Japanese-set film which is based on Kōtarō Isaka’s dark novel “MariaBeetle” will be available on both traditional and IMAX screens. Easter Sunday, which will debut in 3,175 locations, stars Jo Koy as a man who returns home for an Easter celebration with his riotous, bickering, eating, drinking, laughing, loving family. More...

Theater counts: Rise of Gru remains widest release as Thor: Love and Thunder rumbles into theaters

July 7th, 2022

Another week, another blockbuster movie arriving to theaters. This week we see the debut of Thor: Love and Thunder. The film is the second of three planned Marvel Cinematic Universe films set for release in 2022 after Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and before the November release of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Love and Thunder, which has already stirred up $15.7 million from 17 overseas territories starting Wednesday, opens in 4,375 theaters in North America (including IMAX locations) on Friday. The movie features a large ensemble cast, headlined by Chris Hemsworth. More...

Theater counts: Rise of Gru hits 4,391 theaters for the Holiday weekend

June 30th, 2022

After an exciting head-to-head contest at the box office last weekend, another newcomer arrives in theaters this week to challenge chart toppers Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis. Minions: The Rise of Gru will open in 4,391 theaters this week, making it the widest release. The prequel to 2015’s Minions and fifth film in the Despicable Me franchise has earned nearly $4 million overseas so far in rollouts that began in mid June. Set in the 1970s, the animated feature follows a 12-year old Gru (voiced by Steve Carell) as he grows up in the suburbs. The animated comedy from Illumination will also be available on IMAX screens throughout North America. More...

Note: This list contains actors who appeared in at least two movies in the franchise.

Note: This list contains people who contributed to at least two movies in the franchise.