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Tuesday, November 24, 2009
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2003-02-24
the-numbers.com/movies/2003/DARED.php>Daredevil was only able to grab $18.5 million during its second week at the box office, good enough for first place. However, the loss of 55% was greater than expected. Fox claims this loss was due in part to post-holiday weekend slumps. However, Presidents’ Day is not a big holiday for movies and the snowstorm that hit the Northeast lessened its effect even more. If Daredevil doesn’t rebound next week with a lose of less than 40% it will have a very difficult time crossing the $100 million mark. Making it the first movie to make $40 million on its opening weekend to fail to hit that milestone.
In second place, making $17.5 million (exactly what I predicted) was Old School. This teen comedy staring 30 year olds got surprisingly great reviews. It was the only movie opening wide last week that got an overall fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Also living up to predictions was How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days with $11.6 million for third place. In fourth was Jungle Book 2 which only dropped 24% from its first weekend. A phenomenon which can be entirely explained by the complete lack of competition for its target audience, a trend that will continue till March 21st when Piglet’s Big Movie is released. Just behind in fifth place was Chicago with $8.2 million. Chicago should hit the $100 million mark next weekend.
As for the rest of the new releases, none made much of an impact at the box office. The Life of David Gale just failed to make the top 5 with $7 million. Gods and Generals made slightly more than predicted, but still not enough. Its production and advertising budget was nearly $90 million, so less than $5 million during it’s opening weekend has to been seen as a huge disappointment. And sitting in 9th place with less than $4 million is Dark Blue, which I predicted would make more than twice as much.
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2003-02-21
entrants into the box office race this weekend, but don’t expect any of the to challenge Daredevil for the top spot. Even a 50% drop would leave DD with a box office of more than $20 million. With no real competition that should be enough to win.
The widest opening this weekend is for the frat comedy Old School starring Will Farrell, Luke Wilson and Vince Vaughn. None of who are big box office draws. Better than expected reviews could help out, although the target audience for these movies generally don’t read reviews. Expect similar numbers to other comedies of a similar maturity level. Almost 2,700 theatres and a predicted $6,500 per theatre for a total of $17.5 million.
Battling for third will be How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days and Dark Blue with Kurt Russell. Kurt hasn’t stared in a big hit since Stargate, and with an ad campaign that wasn’t aggressive enough and less than 2,200 theatres he’ll have to wait even longer. Dark Blue will lose a close race for 3rd with both movies getting between $11 and $12 million.
Chicago is still picking up theatres, but will start to lose box office, but slowly for the next couple of weeks. $10 million and 5th place is reasonably safe bet.
The Life of David Gale at 2,000 theatres and Gods and Generals at 1,500 theatres are the only other movies opening wide this weekend. But with such low theatre counts and generally awful reviews they will not factor in the top 5. In fact, Gods and Generals might not factor in the top 10.
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