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← October 2017

Contest: Christmas at Ground Zero: Winning Announcement

November 22nd, 2017

Atomic Blonde

The winners of our Christmas at Ground Zero contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Justice League’s opening weekend were... More...

2017 - Awards Season: Independent Spirit Awards - Nominations

November 22nd, 2017

Call Me by Your Name

The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced yesterday and thus the 2017 Awards Season begins. The movie with the most nominations is Call Me by Your Name, which opens on Friday. This is amazingly good timing. It’s not the only film that should get a financial boost. More...

Theater Averages: Justice League tops Chart with $23,165, Three Billboards Grabs Second

November 21st, 2017

Justice League

Justice League topped the theater average chart with $23,165 in just over 4,000 theaters. This is in the top ten best theater averages for any wide release that has come out this year, but it is about 25% lower than it needed to be. Last week’s winner, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri was pushed into second place with an average of $20,796 in 53 theaters. Its strong hold plus its early success during Awards Season should help it stick around in theaters for a long time. Roman J. Israel, Esq was next with an average of $15,500 in four theaters. This would be a good start for a limited release, but it is scheduled to expand wide on Wednesday, so I’m not sure it is good enough. Finally, Lady Bird rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,573 in 238 theaters. It has already earned a significant measure of mainstream success and it still has room to grow. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Justice is Leagues ahead of Competition, but Misses Expectations with $93.84 million

November 21st, 2017

Justice League

Justice League easily won the race for first place on the weekend box office chart. However, it only managed $93.84 million, which is substantially lower than it was expected to open with. In fact, it’s the first film in the DCEU to not open with more than $100 million. (To be fair, it is doing better internationally.) Wonder was a surprising hit in second place and it helped the box office rise 32% from last weekend to $199 million. More importantly, this weekend was 26% higher than the same weekend last year. 2017 ended its most recent slump, but it is still 4.5% or $430 million behind last year’s pace at $9.21 billion to $9.65 billion. More...

Home Market Releases for November 21st, 2017

November 20th, 2017

The Villainess

It is a slow week on the home market for two reasons. Technically it is one reason, but it is having two effects. It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means the schedule is really busy and I need to keep this list short in order to save time. Also, while Thanksgiving means Black Friday and Cyber Monday, two of the busiest shopping days of the year, you don’t want to release something new into that storm of chaos. The biggest release of the week, not counting VOD releases is The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which I reviewed. As for the best release on this week’s list, I’m torn between Good Time, NEW GAME: The Complete First Season, and The Villainess. It was down to a roll of the dice, but The Villainess on Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Hitman’s Bodyguard

November 19th, 2017

The Hitman’s Bodyguard

The Hitman’s Bodyguard held onto first place for three weeks in a row, and earned just over $75 million domestically on a $30 million budget. Granted, it opened in the middle of the worst box office slump we’ve seen in years, so there was no competition to deal with. Is that the only reason the film did well at the box office? Or is it worth checking out? More...

Weekend Estimates: How Much Trouble Does a $96 Million Opening Spell for the DCEU?

November 19th, 2017

Justice League

Justice League was meant to the be the big pay-off for the first phase of the DC Extended Universe, bringing together the characters introduced in Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and Wonder Woman, and setting the stage for next year’s Aquaman. The huge success of Wonder Woman this Summer seemed to be just the kick the franchise needed, and, given the history of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which enjoyed steadily building success leading up to the gigantic opening of The Avengers, an opening north of $150 million, and maybe even approaching $200 million seemed a possibility a couple of months ago. In that context, the $96 million projected weekend announced by Warner Bros. this morning looks like a huge disappointment. What does it mean for the franchise? More...

New at The Numbers: Genre Stars and Keyword Connections

November 18th, 2017

Moonrise Kingdom

Here at The Numbers, we strive to improve your reading experience by adding more features we believe you will find interesting. Today, we have two new features to talk about. Firstly, we have a series of new acting records for the various categorizations we use. For example, the highest grossing leading actors in films based on a TV show. The number one actor is Shia LaBeouf, who starred in the first three Transformers movies. Number two is Tom Cruise, who is the star of the Mission: Impossible franchise, while number five is Justin Long, who provided the voice for the titular character in the Alvin and the Chipmunks films. Starting to notice a pattern? Nearly everyone on the top of this list is someone who starred in one TV adaptation that turned into a lucrative franchise. The only exception is Simon Pegg, who has been in two of these franchises: Mission: Impossible and Star Trek trilogy.

More...

Friday Estimates: Justice Prevails on Friday with $38.8 Million, but the DCEU in Peril

November 18th, 2017

Justice League

As predicted, Justice League dominated the Friday box office chart, earning four times its nearest competitor. However, it only managed $38.8 million on Friday, which is well below expectations. In fact, tracking has been dropping and the film is now widely expected to open with less than $100 million over the weekend, making it the only film in the DCEU to fail to reach the century mark during its opening weekend. There are a number of reasons why this film is struggling. Firstly, except for Wonder Woman, no film in the franchise has earned good reviews and mainstream audiences may have given up on the franchise. Secondly, the troubled production meant a lot of people who were part of the target audience, but not hardcore D.C. Comics fans, are taking a wait-and-see approach here. Since its reviews are bad, these people are staying home. Its CinemaScore is just a B plus, so it won’t have great legs going forward. Finally, there’s Thor: Ragnarok. That film is proving to be stronger than expected competition, as it started faster and is holding up better than most similar films. I think Warner Bros. is going to have to rethink the entire DCEU before going forward. Aquaman is already in post-production and Wonder Woman 2 is definitely going forward. After that, I’m not sure what films will or will not be made. More...

Proud Mary Trailer

November 17th, 2017

Action movie starring Taraji P. Henson opens January 12 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Clear as Mud

November 17th, 2017

Mudbound

I think it will be a bad week at the box office for new limited releases. Mudbound is the best film on this week’s list, but it is playing on Netflix, so it will likely go no where at the box office. Sadly, there’s no other film that can take advantage of the lack of competition. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Justice League’s $13 million Doesn’t Top Thor

November 17th, 2017

Justice League

Justice League will have no trouble earning first place this weekend, but it looks like it won’t match Thor: Ragnarok’s opening. The latest in the DCEU opened with $13 million in previews, compared to $14.5 million for Thor: Ragnarok. Assuming the films have the same legs, then Justice League will earn $110 million during its opening weekend, which is a little lower than our prediction. Unfortunately, its reviews are significantly weaker than the Ragnarok’s and that’s going to hurt its legs. I still think it will top $100 million, but it will be closer to Wonder Woman’s $103 million opening weekend than to our original prediction. More...

Contest: Cuckoo for Coco

November 17th, 2017

Coco

Next weekend, Coco is the only film that I’m 100% sure is opening truly wide. On the other hand, because it is Thanksgiving, it is opening on the Wednesday, which complicates the contest, as we only care about the Friday through Sunday weekend. It is still the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Coco.

We are continuing our Christmas contest, which means each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Justice Reign at the Box Office?

November 16th, 2017

Justice League

Justice League is hoping to be the biggest hit of the month, but two things could get in the way of that goal. Firstly, Thor: Ragnarok got off to a faster than expected start. Secondly, Justice League’s reviews are significantly weaker. There are two other films coming out this week, The Star and Wonder, both of whom are simply hoping not to be lost in a crowded marketplace. This crowded marketplace should help 2017 end its slump against 2016. This weekend last year, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opened in first place with just under $75 million, while there were three other films that earned between $10 million and $20 million. This year, Justice League should top $100 million with ease, while Thor: Ragnarok will earn more than $25 million. The top two films this year should do better than the top five films from last year and that should lead to 2017 earning a comfortable win over 2016 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Counts: Justice League Takes On Thor

November 16th, 2017

Justice League

Thanksgiving’s box office battle starts in earnest this weekend, with Justice League going head to head with Thor: Ragnarok, and Pixar’s Coco gearing up for a big release on Wednesday. Justice League debuts in 4,051 theaters tomorrow, according to Warner Bros.’ Thursday morning announcement, which is just a shade behind the 4,080 theaters that Thor launched in, and will continue to play in this weekend. The 29-theater difference shouldn’t change the equation much: Justice League will easily win the weekend, and Thor is most likely headed for second place. More...

Wonder Wheel Trailer

November 16th, 2017

Comedy starring Kate Winslet, James Belushi, Juno Temple, Justin Timberlake opens December 1 ... Full Movie Details.

The story of four characters whose lives intertwine amid the hustle and bustle of the Coney Island amusement park in the 1950s: Ginny, an emotionally volatile former actress now working as a waitress in a clam house; Humpty, Ginny’s rough-hewn carousel operator husband, a handsome young lifeguard who dreams of becoming a playwright; and Carolina, Humpty’s long-estranged daughter, who is now hiding out from gangsters at her father’s apartment. More...

International Box Office: Thor Threepeats with $75.9 million and Overtakes The Dark World

November 15th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

For the third weekend in a row, Thor: Ragnarok dominated the international chart, earning $75.9 million in 56 markets for totals of $438.5 internationally and $650.6 million worldwide. The film fell 59% during its second weekend in China, but this is actually much better than average for the market. It added $21.71 million this past weekend, pushing its running tally to $95.51 million after just two weeks of release in that market. The film held up even better in the U.K., where it dipped just 33% to $4.05 million in 569 theaters for a three-week total of $34.07 million. Its next biggest international market was South Korea, where it has earned $31.07 million, including $3.53 million on 856 screens this past weekend. The film already has more worldwide than either of the previous Thor films earned in total. It has entered the top ten in the MCU and it is on pace to enter the top five on that chart before its done. More...

Contest: Home for the Holidays: Winning Announcement

November 15th, 2017

Daddy’s Home 2

The winners of our Home for the Holidays contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Daddy’s Home 2’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Three Billboards Earns 1st for the Weekend and 3rd for the Year with $80,542

November 14th, 2017

Lady Bird

This week’s winner on the theater average chart was Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, opening with an average of $80,542 in four theaters. This puts it in third place for the year, behind Lady Bird ($91,109) and The Big Sick ($84,315). Speaking of Lady Bird, the film earned an average $32,426 in 37 theaters, putting it in the top ten over the weekend. Bill Nye Science Guy is traveling the country and this week it was playing in one theater in Los Angeles earning $14,350. Thor: Ragnarok was right behind with an average of $13,990. The final film in the $10,000 club was Thelma, which earned $10,841 in one theater. More...

The Disaster Artist Trailer

November 14th, 2017

Comedy directed by and starring James Franco opens December 1 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thor Rocks On with $57.08 million, but Weekend Box Office still Suffers

November 14th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Thor: Ragnarok led the weekend chart and actually beat our prediction by a small degree with $57.08 million. The two new releases, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express, also beat expectations. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough to help the overall box office, as it fell 16% from last weekend to $151 million over the weekend. This is 4.9% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 at $8.98 billion to $9.46 billion. 2017 is 5.1% or $480 million behind last year’s pace and I’ll be happy if we can cut that deficit in half by the end of the year. More...

Home Market Releases for November 14th, 2017

November 13th, 2017

Kedi

It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top. More...

The Greatest Showman Trailer

November 13th, 2017

Musical starring Hugh Jackman, Zac Efron, Rebecca Ferguson, and Michelle Williams opens December 20 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Daddies Sneak into Second Place; Thor Solid in Second Week

November 12th, 2017

Daddy’s Home 2

Thor: Ragnarok maintains a firm hold on top spot at the domestic and international box office this weekend, with a respectable decline of 54% at home taking it to $56.6 million for the weekend and $211.6 million to date. With another $75.9 million internationally, for a total of $438.5 million overseas, Ragnarok will pass $650 million worldwide today. That makes it the most successful Thor film already, and it seems like it should retain decent traction into the holidays, even with Justice League coming out next weekend. More...

Friday Estimates: Thor Tops Chart with $18.28 million, Race for Second Place Demands Attention

November 11th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

As predicted, Thor: Ragnarok easily won on Friday with $18.28 million. This is 61% lower than its opening Friday, which is better than most blockbusters manage. It also puts it on pace for $56 million during its sophomore stint, which is exactly on track with my prediction. Meanwhile, Disney’s share of the film’s worldwide box office is already above the film’s $180 million production budget, so profitability is all but guaranteed. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Three, Four, Five films worth Checking Out

November 10th, 2017

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It is not a particularly long list this week, but fortunately we do have one top-notch limited release: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. This film will likely pick up at least a few Awards Season nominations. Also worth checking out are Destination Unknown, Mayhem, Thelma, and Gold Star. Although I’m a little biased when it comes to that last one, as we helped writer / director / star Victoria Negri create her business plan to get that film produced. It is also free on Video on Demand, if you have an Amazon Prime account, so you don’t have to risk any money to watch it, if you have already signed up for Amazon Prime. More...

No Greater Love Trailer

November 10th, 2017

War documentary opens today, November 10 ... Full Movie Details.

No Greater Love depicts the combat deployment of the legendary “No Slack” Battalion, 101st Airborne Division, through the eyes of Army Chaplain Justin David Roberts. While deployed in Afghanistan, Justin decided to carry a camera to document the hardships his unit endured. He captured not only the gritty reality of war but also the incredibly strong bond that is forged between soldiers. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Murder Doesn’t Quite Kill the Competition with $1.6 million

November 10th, 2017

Murder on the Orient Express

Murder on the Orient Express pulled in $1.6 million during its previews lat night. In order to match our $27 million prediction, it will need a multiplier of just under 17. By comparison, The Girl on the Train, which is another murder mystery movie with a train in it, earned a multiplier of almost exactly 20 with $1.23 million in previews and an opening weekend of $24.54 million. Murder on the Orient Express also earned better reviews, which would suggest longer legs. On the other hand, it had louder buzz, which tends to result in a more front-loaded box office. We will have a better idea tomorrow when Friday’s estimates are in. More...

Contest: Christmas at Ground Zero

November 10th, 2017

Atomic Blonde

Next weekend, Justice League will open and it will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. Because of this, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Justice League.

We are continuing our Christmas contest, but we do have a studio prize this week: Atomic Blonde on Blu-ray Combo Pack. Whomever comes the closest, regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Atomic Blonde on Blu-ray combo pack. The other two winners will either get a Christmas present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

(Updated) Theater Counts: Daddy’s Home and Orient Express Vie for Theater Space Between Thor and Justice League

November 9th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Two new releases are fighting for some theater space between two giant releases this weekend. With Thor: Ragnarok holding on to the 4,080 theaters it opened in last weekend, and Justice League opening in approximately 4,000 theaters next weekend (per Warner Bros. announcement this evening), Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express had some work to do to get a shot at good debuts. It looks as though they’ve pulled that off, mostly. More...

Weekend Predictions: Thor Looks to Dominate Newcomers

November 9th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

After last week’s debut, Thor: Ragnarok should have no trouble repeating in first place, but we do have two new releases that should be in a battle for second. Murder on the Orient Express had a strong opening in the U.K. and that bodes well for its opening this weekend. On the other hand, Daddy’s Home 2’s box office potential is moving in the other direction. As I started writing this, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This weekend last year, Doctor Strange led the way with $42.97 million. Thor: Ragnarok should top that by around $10 million. Likewise, this week’s new releases should top last year’s new releases. However, last year had a lot better depth. Last year, every film in the top ten earned more than $3 million. This year, I’m not sure the fifth place film will earn more than $3 million. I fear 2017 will lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: With $428.7 million, Ragnarok Races to Catch up to Thor

November 9th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

As expected, Thor: Ragnarok remained in first place on the international chart dominating the competition with $151.4 million in 55 markets during its second weekend of release for a two-week total of $306.0 million internationally and $428.7 million worldwide. After just two weeks of release, the film is within striking distance of the original Thor at the worldwide box office and by this time next week, it might surpass The Dark World. As for this past weekend’s highlights, the box office was led by China, where it earned first place with $53.42 million over the weekend for a total opening of $54.53 million. This is the biggest November opening in that market and the biggest total for a Thor film. It had to settle for second place in Mexico, but was still impressive with $7.34 million over the weekend for a total opening of $10.52 million. It also did well in Germany with $5.5 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.9 million, which is 70% higher than Doctor Strange’s opening there last year. The best holdover came from South Korea, where it was down 47% to $6.39 million on 1,047 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $25.88 million. The only market left to open in is Trinidad, but even with no major markets, the film will have no trouble getting to $500 million internationally and $800 million worldwide. More...

Contest: End of the World: Winning Announcement

November 8th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

The winners of our End of the World contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jigsaw’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Lady Bird is the Picture of Health earning $91,109

November 8th, 2017

Lady Bird

A yearly record was broken this past weekend, as Lady Bird had the best theater average of the year so far with an average of $91,109 in four theaters. This tops the previous yearly record of $84,315 by The Big Sick. It wasn’t the only monster hit on the theater average chart this week. Thor: Ragnarok earned an average of $30,085 in just over 4,000 theaters. There were also two other films that just managed to earn a spot in the $10,000 club, 1945 and Last Flag Flying, which earned averages of $10,317 in two theaters and $10,140 in four theaters respectively.

More...

The Post Trailer

November 8th, 2017

Real-life drama starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep, directed by Steven Spielberg, opens December 22 in select theaters, goes nationwide January 12 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for November 7, 2017

November 8th, 2017

Your Name.

It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. More...

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Trailer

November 7th, 2017

Black comedy starring Frances McDormand and Woddy Harrelson, opens November 10 ... Full Movie Details.

After months have passed without a culprit in her daughter’s murder case, Mildred Hayes makes a bold move, painting three signs leading into her town with a controversial message directed at William Willoughby, the town’s revered chief of police. When his second-in-command Officer Dixon, an immature mother’s boy with a penchant for violence, gets involved, the battle between Mildred and Ebbing’s law enforcement is only exacerbated. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Thor Hammers Competition with $122.74 million

November 7th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Thor: Ragnarok beat predictions by a substantial margin earning the fourth biggest opening weekend of the year. Its opening weekend haul of $122.74 million helped this weekend rise 135% compared to last weekend hitting $179 million. Unfortunately, while Thor: Ragnarok was a monster hit, the rest of the box office wasn’t able to make much of an impact, leaving the overall box office down 6.6% from this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $8.77 billion, putting it behind 2016's pace at 4.9% or $450 million. More...

Fifty Shades Freed Trailer

November 6th, 2017

Erotic drama starring Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan, opens February 9 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Cars 3

November 5th, 2017

Cars 3

Cars is inarguably the weak link in the Pixar canon. Cars was the first Pixar film that I didn’t think was an instant classic, while Cars 2 is still the only Pixar movie that earned bad reviews. Can Cars 3 break this streak? Or is it still the weak link? More...

Weekend Estimates: Thor Ragna-roks the Box Office

November 5th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Thor: Ragnarok continues a remarkable record for the Marvel Cinematic Universe this weekend by posting a $121 million opening weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s a significant increase from the $85.7 million of Thor: Dark World, and means that each sub-franchise based on an individual character has had increasing open box office from film to film: Iron Man’s openings went from $102 million, to $128 million, to $174 million; Captain America went $65 million, $95 million, $179 million; and now Thor has gone $65 million, $86 million, and $121 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Thor Earns $46.82 million Opening Friday

November 4th, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

It looks like Thor: Ragnarok will top predictions and our increased predictions based on its Thursday previews. The film earned $46.82 million on Friday, which is the fifth-biggest opening day in 2017. Additionally, while its reviews are off their peak, its Tomatometer Score is still 93% positive, and it earned an A from CinemaScore. Both of these results suggest long legs, meaning it should hit $115 million during its opening weekend, more or less. If it can reach that over the weekend, then it will only need average legs to get to $300 million domestically. Granted, Justice League does open in just two weeks and that will hurt this film’s legs, but this is still a start worth celebrating. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Will Princess Cyd be Visited by Lady Luck?

November 3rd, 2017

Princess Cyd

A few films on this week’s list were earning some pre-release buzz. Sadly, LBJ and Last Flag Flying missed expectations with critics, so they could struggle at the box office. On the other hand, Lady Bird is earning 100% positive reviews, while Princess Cyd’s reviews are not that far behind, so perhaps they will succeed where the others fail. More...

Darkest Hour Trailer

November 3rd, 2017

Drama starring Gary Oldman and Kristin Scott Thomas, directed by Joe Wright, opens November 22 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Thor Shocks Box Office with $14.5 million in Previews

November 3rd, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Thor: Ragnarok was expected to earn more than $100 million over the weekend. In order to do that, the film needed about $12 million during previews. It earned $14.5 million. If it has the same multiplier people were expecting, then this puts it on track for a $120 million opening weekend. I think we should be a little more conservative. Granted, its reviews remain over 90% positive, so it should have positive word-of-mouth, but the hype could also result in a front-loaded weekend. That said, I think $110 million is a rather safe bet at this point, while if it is leggier than the average blockbuster, then $125 million isn’t out of the question. More...

Contest: Home for the Holidays

November 2nd, 2017

Daddy’s Home 2

Next weekend, there are two wide releases, Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express, both have a shot at $100 million, but both are expected to come up short. Even if both films earned the same amount in the end, Daddy’s Home 2 should still open faster, because of its target demographic. Therefore, Daddy’s Home 2 is the better choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Daddy’s Home 2.

We are continuing our Christmas contest for as long as I have supplies to mail out prizes, at which time the contest ends for good. The last of our winners will either get a Christmas present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay! More...

Theater Counts: Thor’s Four Thousand

November 2nd, 2017

Jigsaw

After a dismal end to the summer, Disney will attempt to come to the industry’s rescue with three blockbuster releases in the coming two months: Coco for Thanksgiving, The Last Jedi for Christmas, and, this weekend, Thor: Ragnarok. The Thor sub-franchise has been the weakest link in the Marvel Universe so far, but this outing is getting stellar reviews, and by coming after a seemingly-endless succession of horror movies in September and October, seems well timed. It’ll launch in 4,080 theaters, which is a little more than The Dark World’s 3,841 debut, but quite a bit less than the 4,226 opening-theater count enjoyed by Captain America: Civil War. An opening over $100 million seems assured, but how much over remains an open question. More...

Downsizing Trailer

November 2nd, 2017

Black comedy starring Matt Damon and Kristen Wiig, written and directed by Alexander Payne, opens December 22 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Thor Rule, or is it the End of World for the Box Office?

November 2nd, 2017

Jigsaw

November begins with Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas. Thor: Ragnarok is widely expected to be the sixth film of 2017 to open with $100 million. On the other hand, A Bad Moms Christmas opened yesterday and when I started writing this in the early hours of Thursday morning, there were still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Oh boy. That’s not a good sign. Worse still, no other new release it going to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned more than $10 million, led by Doctor Strange with $85 million. Thor: Ragnarok will top that, but this year's depth is terrible compared to last year and we will very likely see yet another loss in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Thor Hits Century Mark with $107.6 million

November 2nd, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

Thor: Ragnarok got its international start off with a bang dominating the market with $107.6 million in 36 markets during its opening weekend of release. The film’s biggest opening came in the U.K. where it dominated the market with $16.22 million in 611 theaters, which is 27% higher than Doctor Strange opened with in that market. This film also dominated South Korea earning $12.00 million on 1,639 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.87 million. This total is 12% lower than Doctor Strange, but that was an aberration, because overall, Thor: Ragnarok’s debut was 22% ahead of Doctor Strange’s debuts in the same market. If Thor can have similar legs, it will finish with more than $500 million internationally and possibly even $800 million worldwide. More...

Contest: Seen It: Winning Announcement

November 1st, 2017

Jigsaw

The winners of our Seen It contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jigsaw’s opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: The Square Squirreled Away $18,558

November 1st, 2017

The Square

The Square was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend. The latest from Ruben Ostlund earned an average of $18,558 in four theaters. This is a better opening than his last film, Force Majeure, which earned more than $1 million domestically. Hopefully this one will do the same. More...

2017 Preview: November

November 1st, 2017

Thor: Ragnarok

October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point. More...

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