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The Numbers News

← November 2016

Thursday Night Previews: Incarnate is a Ghost at Previews - Update

December 2nd, 2016


The numbers for Incarnate finally showed up and I can see why they were not in a rush to publish them. The film pulled in just $120,000 during midnight shows yesterday. That’s not the worst we’ve seen for a semi-wide or wider release, but it is close. In fact, it is so low that it is hard to find a good comparison. The three recent horror / thrillers we used as comparisons didn’t have previews or didn’t release preview box office numbers. Nearly ever horror / thriller released this summer was a hit, except The Darkness. That film earned $206,000 during its previews on its way to a $4.95 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs, then Incarnate will pull in $3 million this weekend. I think that’s on the high end of its box office potential.

Our original story can be read below. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Jackie Hopes O stands for Oscar

December 2nd, 2016


There are not a lot of limited releases on this week’s list. Things to Come is earning the best reviews, but it is a foreign-language film and that will limit its box office potential. Believe is the biggest in terms of theater count, but it’s a faith-based film and there’s a chance it will open well below the Mendoza Line. On the other hand, Jackie has the best box office potential and Natalie Portman could win an Oscar for her performance. More...

Contest: Christmas Time

December 1st, 2016

Office Christmas Party

There is only one wide release next week, Office Christmas Party, as the other two releases are expanding wide. This makes it easy to pick the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Office Christmas Party

Also... it’s Christmas time. And that means we have lumps of coal to give out, although not literally. Two of the three winners will receive either two previously reviewed movies or one TV on DVD release pulled randomly from the prize pool. The third will receive a lump of coal, a movie / TV show on HD-DVD. I doubt anyone reading this still has a working HD-DVD player hooked up.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of the potential winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be one of the potential winners Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts (updated): Fantastic Beasts and Moana Still Widest Releases, La La Land Looms

December 1st, 2016


With Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Moana dominating at the box office, there’s not much room for new releases this weekend, although we do have one wide-ish one, and one limited release debuting in over 500 locations. Fantastic Beasts will remain the film widest release, although it drops 156 theaters this weekend to play in 3,988, just a smidgeon ahead of Moana, which stays in 3,875 movie houses. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Incarnate have a Substantial Opening?

December 1st, 2016


December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.


2016 Preview: December

December 1st, 2016

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand. More...