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The Numbers News

← May 2016

Friday Estimates: Dory swims to $23.21 million, Resurgence shrinks to $16.8 million

June 25th, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory held on to first place on Friday and that’s not good news, at least not for the box office as a whole. The film pulled in $23.21 million last night, which puts it on track to earn approximately $76 million. We predicted $74 million, so I’m calling this a victory. This will give the film close to $290 million after just ten days of release and puts it on pace to reach $300 million late Monday / early Tuesday. It will obviously hit $400 million at this pace, and it could become the first film of 2016 and the first animated film of all time to reach the $500 million milestone. That’s not a sure thing, but I think it’s at least 50/50 at this point. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Independence Day Doesn't Really Surge

June 24th, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

Independence Day: Resurgence started its box office run with $4 million during Thursday previews. That's not good. That's twice as much as the $2 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned a few weeks ago, but half as much as the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse earned the week before that. It is identical to Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened last summer. If you compare its opening to all three films, taking into account Out of the Shadows' younger target audience and Apocalypse's Fanboy nature, then Resurgence will likely opened with between $50 million and $60 million. Hopefully it is performing better internationally. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Neon Lights Shine Bright on Limited Releases

June 24th, 2016

The Neon Demon

Wow. This is a great week for limited releases. Not only are there a few releases earning a lot of buzz (The Neon Demon, Swiss Army Man, and Wiener Dog). There are also even more movies earning 100% positive reviews. Of those, Hunt for the Wilderpeople is the one that I think will have the best chance of breakout success. More...

Contest: Big Fun Prizes

June 24th, 2016

The BFG

July begins next weekend and there are three films hoping to make an impact at the box office. The Purge: Election Year might not hit $50 million domestically, but that's fine given its low production budget. The Legend of Tarzan should do a little better, but it had a troubled production and it cost more than $150 million to make. That leaves The BFG, a.k.a., the Big Friendly Giant. It is a live action family film released by Disney. It's aimed at too young an audience to be a monster hit, but it has a shot at $100 million, which is more than the other two films can say. As a result, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The BFG.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviewed DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids DVDs. I'm out of mystery box items, unless I find some more later on. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts: Independence Day Launches in 4,068 Locations

June 23rd, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

Back by popular demand, here are this weekend’s official theater counts and estimates for next weekend. The highlights: Finding Dory remains in widest release this weekend, in 4,305 theaters. Independence Day: Resurgence is the widest opener in 4,068 venues. Among next week’s wide releases, The Legend of Tarzan has top billing, in 3,450 theaters. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will New Releases Challenge Top Spot? Or Will Dory just Keep Swimming?

June 23rd, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

This is the last weekend in June and there are three wide releases hoping to challenge Finding Dory for top spot. I don’t think any of them will come close. Independence Day: Resurgence is the only new release with a shot at first place and it should come out on top on Friday. It better win on Friday, or the month will end on a soft note. The Shallows and Free State of Jones will be fighting for fourth place. The Shallows cost less than $20 million, so a fourth place finish wouldn’t be a bad start. On the other hand, Free State of Jones cost $65 million to make, so a fourth place finish would be a disaster. Also opening this week is The Neon Demon. It isn’t opening wide, but it is opening wide enough to compete for a slot in the top ten. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases that earned less than $50 million combined. On the other hand, the top two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out both earned more than $50 million. Can the top four this year out-earn the top four last year? I think they can. We might get an actual win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Dory Earns $50 Million to Dump Warcraft

June 22nd, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory started its international run in first place with $50.0 million in 29 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned second place with 18.15 million over the weekend and $18.18 million including previews. This is not a lot of money compared to last week's winner; however, China is not a market that is kind to animated films. Before this year, no animated movie had earned more than $100 million in China and the current record is held by Zootopia at $235.77 million. Zootopia only made $23.99 million during its opening weekend in China, so this isn't a bad start for Finding Dory. Additionally, Finding Dory doubled Zootopia's opening in Australia with $7.63 million on 524 screens. It also performed very well in Argentina ($3.5 million) and in Russia ($3.25 million on 1,220 screens). It is still too early to tell if Finding Dory will top $1 billion worldwide, but this start gives box office watchers a reason to be optimistic. More...

Contest: Remember Me: Winning Announcement

June 22nd, 2016

Finding Dory

The winners of our Remember Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Finding Dory opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Dory Finds Her Way to the Top with $31,373

June 21st, 2016

Finding Dory

Finding Dory not only earned first place on the weekend box office chart, but it also earned first place on the theater average chart with $31,373 per theater. Homeless Billionaire was next with $19,771 in its lone theater. Tickled earned an average of $10,949 in two theaters. Meanwhile, Central Intelligence was right behind with an average of $10,130. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Dory Dominates with $135.06 Million, Central is Solid with $35.54 Million

June 21st, 2016

Finding-Dory

In our prediction column, I said I wanted the top two films to earn a combined total of $150 million to $170 million. Finding Dory's and Central Intelligence's combined opening weekend was $170.60 million. The overall box office was 53% higher than last weekend at $233 million. However, this was still 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Finding Dory did do better than either Jurassic World or Inside Out individually, but couldn't compete with their combined totals. 2016 is still ahead of 2015, but its lead was cut by a third at $150 million or 3.1%. That said, 2016 hit $5 billion a week faster than 2015 did and its lead of $5.06 billion to $4.91 billion is still substantial. More...

Home Market Releases for June 21st, 2016

June 20th, 2016

Fantastic Planet

There are two wide releases coming out this week, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 and The Divergent Series: Allegiant, although the latter is only coming out on Video on Demand. Neither of these are big releases and it only gets much worse from there. There wasn't a lot of competition for Pick of the Week, but I went with Fantastic Planet: Criterion Collection. It's a classic, but it is also a French Surrealist animated film, so that will limit its target audience. More...

Weekend Estimates: Finding Dory Surges to Biggest Animated Opening with $136.2 Million

June 19th, 2016

Finding-Dory

Finding Dory is rewriting the record books this weekend, posting the biggest weekend ever for an animated film. Disney is projecting a total of $136.18 million in its first three days, which will easily break the record of $121.6 million set by Shrek the Third back in 2007. The previous top mark for a Pixar movie was Toy Story 3’s $110.3 million. With an A CinemaScore (for the 17th time straight for Pixar, per Disney), and 95% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, the film should enjoy Pixar’s traditional good legs. In the Summer, that has meant a ratio between opening and final box office of somewhere between 3 and 4, which points towards a final box office somewhere between $400 million and $520 million for the fish pic. By way of comparison Finding Nemo earned $518 million, adjusted for inflation. More...

Featured DVD Review: Adventures in Babysitting

June 19th, 2016

Adventures in Babysitting

Adventures in Babysitting is the 100th Disney Channel original movie and while it doesn't come out on DVD yet, I'm reviewing it this weekend. Why? Because it debuts on TV on Friday the 24th. I figured it was better to get the review done before it airs and I rarely have enough time to publish a review mid-week. So how does this remake compare to the original? More...

Friday Estimates: Dory Finds Success with $54.95 Million

June 18th, 2016

Finding-Dory

Finding Dory led the way on Friday with $54.95 million. This is the best opening day for a Pixar film and the best opening day for an animated film. Simply, a fantastic start. Our prediction of $129 million seems woefully inadequate. It is a family-friendly film with 95% positive reviews and a CinemaScore of A, so it should have good legs, meaning a $140 million is the new target. This would also be a record for an animated film and put it in the top twenty opening weekends. If this calculation holds true, then getting to $400 million domestically will be an easy feat. Hitting $500 million isn’t out of the question. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Dory Sets Pixar Record, Intelligence Right on the Money

June 17th, 2016

Finding-Dory

Finding Dory. Finding Dory started its box office run by setting a Pixar record with $9.2 million at preview shows. This beats the old record of $4.0 million held by Toy Story 3. However, that film came out six years ago and midnight showings were not industry standard back then so it is hard to judge. On the other hand, the film also set the record for an animated film, which was previously set last year by Minions at $6.2 million. Finding Dory is also the biggest midnight hit for a family film so far this year, topping The Jungle Book, which earned $4.2 million. At this pace, a $100 million opening seems very likely and a record-breaking opening, for an animated film, is still the goal. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases have Dozens of Uses

June 17th, 2016

Swiss Army Man

There's not a lot of limited releases coming out this week, but there is one that I'm really interested in seeing: Swiss Army Man. Its reviews are not the best, but its premise is certainly intriguing. On the other hand, Raiders! The Story of the Greatest Fan Film Ever Made is a better movie for fans of movies. It is certainly worth at least a VOD rental. More...

Contest: Surge of Independence

June 17th, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence

Next weekend is the last weekend in June and unfortunately for the two wide releases coming out, the buzz for these films hasn't really grown. Independence Day: Resurgence is going to be the number one new release, although it likely won't earn first place. Free State of Jones could become STX Entertainment's biggest hit, but that's not saying much. Independence Day: Resurgence could earn more during its opening weekend than Free State of Jones earns during its box office run. As such, Independence Day: Resurgence is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Independence Day: Resurgence.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box. Items from the mystery box are first come, first served, as I'm nearly out of them. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Audience Find Dory? Is Seeing Central Intelligence the Smart Thing to do?

June 16th, 2016

Finding-Dory

This weekend should be the best weekend in June, led by Finding Dory. Finding Dory should easily be the biggest hit of the month, one of the biggest hits of the year, and the fastest opening film in Pixar's history. On the other hand, Central Intelligence is just hoping for a solid second place opening in its role as counter-programming. If it hits $30 million, then the studio will be very happy. This weekend last year, Jurassic World led the way with $106.59 million, while Inside Out opened in second place with $90.44 million. 2016 is going to lose more ground to 2015. I just hope they keep it close. I will be happy if Finding Dory and Central Intelligence earned a combined $150 million to $170 million. More...

International Box Office: Warcraft Crushes Competition in China on way to $185.8 Million Weekend

June 16th, 2016

Warcraft

Warcraft roared into first place with $185.8 million in 52 markets for totals of $261.7 million internationally and 285.9 million worldwide. There are some amazing news to report from over the weekend, but also some bad news. First the positive news. The film broke records in China earning $156.17 million during its five-day opening. That topped the previous record held by Furious 7. Unfortunately, outside of China, its box office run was much closer to its North American debut. For example, it earned second place in South Korea with $4.26 million on 736 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.09 million. Because of how much money the film is earning in China and how little of that the studio sees, the film could make $600 million internationally and still struggle to break even. More...

Contest: Scared Silly: Winning Announcement

June 15th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

The winners of our Scared Silly contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Conjuring Comes Out on Top, but De Palma is De Lightful

June 15th, 2016

De-Palma

There were only two films in the $10,000 club on the theater average chart. This includes the overall number one film, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist, which opened with an average of $12,087. The only other film in the $10,000 club was De Palma, which earned an average of $10,118 in three theaters. More...

Home Market Releases for June 14th, 2016

June 14th, 2016

Hello, My Name is Doris

It is a much slower week than it was last time. In fact, the only two reviews this week were for releases that came out last week. That doesn't mean we don't have any good releases and there are a few contenders for Pick of the Week. Of these, Hello, My Name is Doris is the one I'm most interested in buying and the Blu-ray, while not loaded with extras, is the Pick of the Week. I'm also giving an honorary Puck of the Week to Dark Matter: Season 1, which is a Canadian Sci-fi series.

(On a side note, Amazon's list of new releases is a mess with a bunch of Game of Thrones and Star Trek titles, most of which don't even have images. This made sorting through the new releases a lot harder.) More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Conjuring Conquers Competition with $40.41 million

June 14th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

As anticipated, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the weekend box office with ease pulling in $40.41 million. The second place film, Warcraft, earned 40% less. Now You See Me 2 only managed third place and it will need a lot of help to break even. The overall box office was $152 million, which is 13% more than last weekend. However, it was also more than $100 million less than this weekend last year. Normally a 44% collapse like this only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. In this case, it's because of Jurassic World. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a substantial margin at $4.76 billion to $4.54 billion. 2016's lead is now 4.8%, more than a full percentage point lower than it was this time last week, but hopefully Finding Dory will help prevent a similar descent this week. More...

Weekend Estimates: Conjuring Top at Home, Warcraft Dominates in China

June 12th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

This weekend’s box office is a tale of two continents. In North America, The Conjuring 2 is off to a great start, easily winning the weekend with $40.35 million, and averaging over $10,000 per theater. In Asia—China to be specific—Warcraft has made a record-breaking debut. Its domestic prospects look horrible though, with just $24.36 million expected for the weekend. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan: Director's Cut

June 12th, 2016

Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan

I've never done a full featured review of Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan, although I have reviewed it as part of a couple of box sets in the past. It is widely considered the best film in the franchise and I absolutely agree with that assessment. Last week, the Director's Cut came out on Blu-ray for the first time individually. I assume most fans of the franchise already own this film on DVD, and Blu-ray, and if they are like me, on VHS as well. So the question isn't, "Is this a movie worth owning." It's, "Is it worth buying for the fifth or sixth time?" More...

Friday Estimates: Sequels Still Struggle, but Conjuring Comes Out on Top with $16.4 million

June 11th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist is the only bit of good news to come out of Friday, and even then it was muted. The film earned $16.4 million on Friday, which is enough for first place, but it is also about 3.3% lower than the original’s opening day and sequels really need to open faster than the original. Its outlook for the rest of the weekend is mixed when compared to the first film. Both films earned identical A- CinemaScores, but the sequel’s reviews are weaker and sequels tend to be more front-loaded. Look for an opening weekend of about $38 million. This is a little better than predicted and almost as much as it cost to make. Hopefully it is enough to get to $100 million domestically, because we could use some good news at the box office. Even if it doesn’t quite get to the century mark, as long as it doesn’t completely collapse, it will break even sooner rather than later. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Martian: Extended Edition

June 11th, 2016

The Martian

I previously reviewed The Martian when it first came out on the home market all of five months ago… Let’s just state for the record that five months is far too short of a time between a release and a special edition. Anything less than a year feels more like a cash grab than something special. That said, is the Extended Edition of this film worth checking out? Is it worth picking up? Is it worth a double-dip? More...

Thursday Night Previews: Conjuring 2 Re-Capture's Box Office Might with $3.4 million

June 10th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist had the best run during Midnight showings earning $3.4 million on Thursday. By comparison, The Conjuring earned $3.3 million during its previews. The Enfield Poltergeist does have a good Tomatometer Score (74% positive), but the Sequel Effect will still be in play and that will limit the film's weekend box office. Look for $35 million, or close to it. This will make it the biggest horror release of 2016 by Sunday, perhaps as early as Saturday. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases have Therapeutic Value

June 10th, 2016

Therapy for a Vampire

There are a few limited releases coming out this week that have a chance of finding an audience, but none that will expand significantly. De Palma is a must see for fans of the director, or of movie business documentaries in general. King Jack has perfect reviews, but it is also playing on Video On Demand. Therapy for a Vampire is the film I'm most interested in seeing, but while its reviews are great, it likely won't escape the art house circuit. More...

Contest: Remember Me

June 9th, 2016

Finding Dory

Next week, there are two wide releases debuting in theaters: Finding Dory and Central Intelligence. I think Central Intelligence is going to be a hit earning more than $100 million domestically and could spawn a sequel as a result. On the other hand, Finding Dory could earn more than $100 million opening weekend and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Finding Dory.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviewed DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases Scare the Industry?

June 9th, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

If this weekend is as bad as some fear it will be, it could begin to cause a panic among some studio executives. Two of the three wide releases are sequels and there are some who expect both to fail to match their predecessors by significant margins. If this happens, we will have six sequels failing to match expectations during a four-week stretch. Worse still, there are more than six additional sequels left to open before the end of summer. (Finding Dory seems safe, but the rest could flop as well.) The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist should come out on top at the box office, but with less than the original made. Now You See Me 2 will likely continue Lionsgate's losing streak. Meanwhile, Warcraft could do well enough in China to justify a sequel, which is great news, because it will likely bomb here. This weekend last year, Jurassic World opened with $208 million. There's no way the entire box office will make that much this year. 2016 is going to get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Apocalypse Tops Weekend Chart, Zootopia Hits $1 billion

June 9th, 2016

X-Men: Apocalypse

X-Men: Apocalypse returned to top spot on the international chart with $84.4 million in 66 markets for totals of $286.0 million internationally and $403.0 million worldwide. Most of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it earned first place with $59.33 million. This is the best opening in the franchise in that market. The film has yet to open in Japan, but will likely fall out of the top ten before it gets there. More...

Contest: Turtle Power: Winning Announcement

June 8th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

The winners of our Turtle Power contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Witness Seen by Many, Earns $14,523

June 8th, 2016

The Witness

The Witness was the top draw on the theater average chart earning $14,523 in its lone theater. The Fits was the only other member of the $10,000 club earning $10,602, also in one theater. One last note: We are still relying on estimates for Art Bastard and since it is an independent film, we might not get the final number. At the moment, it has an average of $9,800 in two theaters, so there's a chance it actually snuck its way into the $10,000 club. More...

Home Market Releases for June 7th, 2016

June 8th, 2016

Zootopia

The list of new home market releases isn't particularly long, but it includes Zootopia the best movie of the year, so it feels like an amazing week. It isn't the only contender for Pick of the Week this week, as Anomalisa, Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan: Director's Cut, and others are also worth considering. The Martian: Extended Edition is also a must have, if you don't own it yet. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Turtles Open First, but Isn't Powerful with a $35.32 Million Opening

June 7th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Two of the three new wide releases failed to make much of an impact at the box office over the weekend. This includes the overall number one film, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. It earned $35.32 million during its opening weekend, which isn't as bad as some feared, but it is also well below its predecessor's opening. Me Before You did very well in a counter-programming role with $18.72 million. Finally, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping barely topped the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office earned $133 million, which is 19% lower than last weekend, but that is an acceptable post-holiday decline. Compared to last year, the box office this year was lower, but by less than 0.1%. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has grown to $250 million or 5.9% at $4.56 billion to $4.30 billion. More...

Featured TV on DVD Review: The Shannara Chronicles: Season 1

June 6th, 2016

The Shannara Chronicles: Season 1

The Shannara Chronicles is a TV series based on the fantasy book series by Terry Brooks. The series of books has been going for nearly 40 years and has quite a following. It is also co-created and written by Alfred Gough and Miles Millar, who helped bring Smallville to the small screen. That's enough to be at least a little hopeful. Can the series live up to its pedigree? Or is it wasted potential? More...

Weekend Estimates: Turtles Power to $35.25 Million Debut

June 5th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will top the box office chart this weekend with a respectable $35.25 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The weekend as a whole is looking fairly ordinary though, thanks in large part to the muted debuts of X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass last weekend, and their predictably-steep post-Memorial-Day declines. Apocalypse is off 66% this weekend to $22.325 million and $116.5 million in total. Alice will eke out $10.7 million or so for a two-week total of $50.8 million. Overall, the market will be down about 1% from the same weekend last year, and 20% below the comparable weekend from 2014. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Confirmation

June 5th, 2016

The Confirmation

The Confirmation opened in limited release, and Video on Demand in March. Like most films that debut on Video on Demand, this one went nowhere at the box office. Will it do better on DVD / Blu-ray? More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Zootopia

June 4th, 2016

Zootopia

Zootopia is slowly making its way to $1 billion worldwide [Copy Ed: It passed $1 billion this weekend], but in the meantime, it arrives on the home market this week. It is one of the biggest hits of the year so far and earned Oscar-worthy reviews. Will my voice be added to choir of praise? Or will I be part of the dissenting minority? More...

Friday Estimates: Turtles Take Top Spot with $12.5 million

June 4th, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows bounced back from Thursday’s weak previews with $12.5 million on Friday. There was further good news, as the film’s CinemaScore was an A-, up nearly a full letter grade from the B its predecessor earned. This will be enough for first place over the weekend with $33 million. That’s not a good enough opening to get to $100 million, so the film will need to perform well internationally to break even any time soon. On the other hand, reports have the film performing better with kids than adults, so it could break even on merchandising alone. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Me, Me, Me

June 3rd, 2016

Me Before You

Oh no. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned the best Thursday night previews, but did so with just $2 million. That's a mere fraction of the $4.5 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and could spell real trouble for the film's box office chances. The reviews are a little better than its predecessor's reviews were, but it is also a sequel and those tend to have shorter legs. It might struggle to top $30 million and that means first place isn't a sure thing anymore. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Will The Wailing be the Moby Dick of Limited Releases?

June 3rd, 2016

The Wailing

One second. ... I'm going to have to take a break to recover from that pun in the title. That one hurt me just typing it up. There are several films on this week's list that are earning unanimously positive reviews, or very close to it. Unfortunately, none of them look like they have what it takes to be a break out hit in limited release. The Fits (Reviews) is just too small a film, while both The President (Reviews) and The Wailing (Reviews) are foreign-language films. Hopefully I'm just being too pessimistic. More...

Contest: Scared Silly

June 3rd, 2016

The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

There are three wide releases coming out next week. The Conjuring 2: The Enfeild Poltergeist is expected to top Now You See Me 2 for top spot. (Warcraft is just hoping to not embarrass itself at this point.) While there is a chance of an upset, The Enfeild Poltergeist has a large enough advantage that I'm confident in making it the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Conjuring 2: The Enfeild Poltergeist.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Throwing Shade on the New Releases

June 2nd, 2016

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

It's one of those weekends where the bigger the release is, the worse its reviews are. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the only film expected to top $100 million domestically and its reviews are just 31% positive. Me Before You is expected to be a midlevel hit, but its reviews have slipped to 47% positive. Meanwhile, most analysts think Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will bomb, but its reviews are by far the best at 81% positive. This weekend last year, Spy opened with just under $30 million. Out of the Shadows should top that, while both years have similar depth. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Alice is Looking Up

June 2nd, 2016

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Alice Through the Looking Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $65.0 million in 43 markets for a worldwide opening of $91.9 million, not including holiday Monday. The film's biggest opening was in China, where it made $26.88 million. It also did well in Mexico opening in first place with $4.85 million. On the other hand, it had mediocre openings in Russia (second place with $3.95 million on 1,199 screens), in the U.K. (second place with $3.33 million in 603 theaters) and in Australia (first place with $2.18 million on 503 screens). Those three openings were similar to a $20 million opening here, more or less. If the film can get to $300 million to $350 million worldwide, then it will have a shot at breaking even, eventually. It opens in France this week, Japan next month, and closes its international run in South Korea in September. It will be a while before we will know where it ends. More...

Contest: Apocalypse Wow: Winning Announcement

June 1st, 2016

X-Men-Apocalypse

The winners of our Apocalypse Wow contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages hit by an Apocalypse

June 1st, 2016

X-Men: Apocalypse

There was only one film in the $10,000 club and that was the overall box office leader, X-Men: Apocalypse. That film earned an average of $15,848 during the three-day weekend. More...

2016 Preview: June

June 1st, 2016

Finding Dory

May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand. More...