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Thursday, November 26, 2009
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2004-01-20
Every week films get a second chance at success from the home market; or, in some cases, a first chance at success. Here is a list of wide releases, limited releases and even one or two from the growing TV on DVD section. If I were to pick just one DVD this week, it would be Once Upon a Time in Mexico - (Buy from Amazon.) But there are plenty of choices for everyone this week.
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2003-09-05
you than The Labor Day long weekend is the slowest long weekend of the year. The rest of September is traditionally the slowest time of the year. And this year it looks to break no traditions with only two marginal releases.
The box office should be led by Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star, the latest David Spade movie. Reviews for Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star are almost twice as good as Spade's previous movie, Joe Dirt, but at 19% that's not much praise. Joe Dirt made $8 million during its opening weekend, but it opening in several hundred more theatres and during a more lucrative time at the box office. Better reviews and higher ticket prices will leave Dickie Roberts with the same opening weekend.
Many families saw movies last Monday to celebrate back to school, ok, the parents were celebrating while the children were mourning. I think a significant number will also go to movies this weekend as a treat for the children who survived the first week. This should help Freaky Friday maintain most of its box office. $6.5 million is good, but not quite good enough to cross $100 million this week.
Poor reviews, sequel effect, horror genre, post long weekend and the general ennui of 2003 will lead to a massive drop at the box office for Jeepers Creepers 2. Look for a drop just north of 60% for a weekend box office of $6 million.
Very few movies have shown real legs at the box office this year. So far this year's champion has to be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl which, if my calculations are correct, will move up a spot on the charts for a second week in a row. Also, the $5.5 million earned will push it past The Matrix Reloaded into second place for the year.
Spending its last week in the top five will be Open Range. Another $5.0 million will increase its total past $50 million in four weeks. That may not seem like much compared to the $300 million Pirates of the Caribbean is shooting for, but it's the best Kevin Costner effort since Waterworld.
And that leads us to the second new release of the week, The Order. How bad are the prospects for The Order? Firstly, it wasn't screened for reviewers and that's never a good sign. Secondly, it has been bounced around to no less than four release dates, also not a good sign. And it underwent a name change after a disastrous preview screening in 2002. And now it has been dumped during the weakest time of the year in fewer than 2000 theatres. An opening weekend of only $4 million and a quick exit from theatres is the most likely result.
On a more positive note, American Wedding should break through the $100 million barrier this weekend. If it does it will be the 20th movie to do so this year, with Freaky Friday becoming 21st just a few days later. It's almost a lock that 2003 will set the record for most $100 million movies in a single year. With a couple of surprises we may even see 30 $100 million movies this year.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-09-03
r a long weekend, this Labor Day long weekend broke records for biggest opening weekend and highest total box office. It's no surprise that the three day total is up, albeit only 0.8% from last weekend, and the four day total is up approximately 9% from last year.
Jeepers Creepers 2 broke the record for best Labor Day weekend, a record that the original set in 2001. Despite reviews that were much worse than the original, Jeepers Creepers 2 made $15.3 million for the 3 day weekend and $18.4 million total.
As predicted, Freaky Friday was able to climb back into second place. The addition $9.2 million / $12.6 million puts the Disney remake roughly one week away from $100 million.
The next three movies were very close. In fact, their standing at the box office changes depending on if you count Monday or not.
S.W.A.T. did crack the $100 million mark this week, and did it with a better than expected $8.3 million / $10.8 million. That was good for 3rd / 4th depending on how many days you count.
Earning almost exactly what it was predicted to, Open Range nevertheless finished one place lower for the three day weekend and two places lower for the four day weekend. With a final tally of $8.1 million / $10.7 million it was just a rounding error behind S.W.A.T.
It seems than Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl benefited the most from the long weekend as its box office was up the most out of the top five (or the top ten for that matter.) Its $8 million for the 3 day weekend was good enough for fifth place. But add in Monday's figure and the total of $10.8 put it into third place.
And now for an update on the three other movies are trying for the $100 million club this weekend.
Charlie's Angels: Full throttle lost almost two thirds of its box office from last weekend, but that was still more than enough.
The Italian Job's expansion helped more than expected as the movie rose to 12th place with $3 million. Almost $1 million more than it needed to cross $100 million.
Seabiscuit needed the most money at the box office to make it. It also earned the most, hitting $100 million on Sunday.
Next on the list to cross $100 million? As I've already mentioned, Freaky Friday could do it next weekend, but American Wedding will probably beat it to that goal.
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2003-08-29
Labor Day long weekend is the slowest long weekend of the year. And this year looks to be no exception. Only one new movie is opening, however, The Italian Job is expanding to over 1900 theatres in a push to reach the $100 million milestone. Like last week, expect limited releases to get a boost from weak wide releases.
Finishing first will be no problem for Jeepers Creepers 2, the real question is whether it will beat the original. Earlier this summer it would have been a forgone conclusion that the sequel would open bigger, and drop faster, than the original. But lately that hasn't always been the case. Reviews for Jeepers Creepers 2 are bad, currently a little more than half what the original got. Added in sequel burn out and you get $13 million Friday to Sunday and $16 for the long weekend.
I know Freaky Friday finished fourth last week, but by Thursday it had risen to 2nd place. Add in the family friendly nature and this movie should benefit the most from the Labor Day long weekend. $8 million for Friday to Sunday and $10 million overall.
Coming in third for the third week in a row will be Open Range. Targeted at a more mature audience, this movie will also benefit more from the long weekend than other movies coming in virtual tie with Freaky Friday. $8 million for Friday to Sunday and $10 million overall.
S.W.A.T. has been in first place on the daily charts since Wednesday, but several other movies have been gaining on it during the week. So it will drop to fourth for the weekend, but the $7 million / $9 million it will earn will be enough to push it over the $100 million mark.
Returning to the top five after two weeks at number 6 is Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. At the beginning of the week it was more than $500 thousand out of top spot, but by Thursday it was only a little more than $100 thousand and comfortably in the top five. And even without a long weekend Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the black Peal had held up well at the box office. So expect it to do even better this weekend. $6 million Friday to Sunday and $8 million over the long weekend.
Three other movies are trying for the $100 million club this weekend.
After last weekend, Charlie's Angels: Full throttle had only $500,000 to reach the milestone, and even battle mid-week numbers would have cut that in half by Thursday. After taking into account the drop of 40% of its theatre count this weekend it should still make the grade by Monday.
The Italian Job is just a little more than $3 million away and this weekend it expands to over 1900 theatres. That gives it an outside shot at $100 million this weekend, but even if it just cuts the gap in half it should reach it by the end of next weekend.
Lastly, Seabiscuit has made more than $95 million, including more than $6 million last weekend. Giving its strong legs and the long weekend it has a very good chance at $100 million by Monday as well.
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2003-08-26
hampion, Thirteen, was joined by three others that cracked the $10,000 per theater average mark, with one other film just missing that feat. Thirteen's weekend box office of $116 thousand was earned in just 5 theaters giving it an average of $23,252.
Dropping to second place was American Splendor. Its average held up amazingly well considering that its theater count increased five-fold. With an average of $14,199 at 32 theaters, American Splendor looks poised to enjoy some mainstream success.
A couple of interesting notes:
Not one wide release was able to crack the top ten this week, in fact Open Range had the best at 18th place, (or 15th if you don't count IMAX.)
Winged Migration climbed above $10,000 per theater in its 19th week. It hadn't hit that mark since mid-May. It did this when its theater count dropped by 80% while its box office actually increased.
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2003-08-26
ses this week did significantly worse than expected, however, the holdovers didn't pick up the slack as they usually do. This led to a massive 31.5% drop from last weekend but a 12.2% increase from last year. An interesting note, the top four films this week remained in the same order as they did last weekend. I don't know when that last happened.
While Freddy vs. Jason did finish first, that's a small bit of good news in an otherwise terrible second week performance. It was only able to grab $13.2 million, well below most predictions, which resulting in a 64% drop-off. The biggest second week drop off for a number one movie since The Hulk, and second largest such drop overall. Next weekend when the similarly targeted movie Jeepers Creepers 2 opens could spell an even worse result.
Second place again went to S.W.A.T. with $10.6 million. $100 million by next week is the goal and there's talk of a new TV spin-off in the works.
Just missing predictions by a rounding error was Open Range which added $9.5 million to it's total. Unfortunately, this genre usually doesn't do well internationally and the studio will most likely have to wait till the home market to see a profit.
Freaky Friday was the only movie to outperform its predictions, albeit by only a few hundred thousand. The $9.3 million earned this week makes the movie very close to showing a profit after only 3 weeks of release.
The first of three new releases this week was The Medallion, which could only manage $8.1 million and fifth place at the box office. The Medallion had the best reviews of any wide release of the weekend, but at 20% it really doesn't mean much. Despite similar reviews and international performances as The Tuxedo this movie couldn't find an audience domestically. This probably means Jackie Chan needs to do something different in his next film. And Around the World in 80 Days does look different than the usual Jackie Chan movie.
Some analysts had My Boss's Daughter finish in the top five. However, not only did it miss the top five, like I predicted, it barely landed in the top 10. It could only grab $4.9 million in its opening weekend, which was only good enough for tenth place. It also had the lowest per theatre average in the top ten. This movie wasn't screened for the critics, and for good reason. My Boss's Daughter only managed a lowly 11% positive.
Getting the worst reveiws of the week was Marci X. This could be the movie that stops people from making fun of Gigli. That's how bad it did both at the box office and with the critics. It's apropos that I compared Marci X to Grind since Marci X finished in 17th place with less than $900 thousand and Grind finished 18th. Marci X earned less in its first weekend than Finding Nemo did in its 13th. Marci X's per theatre average for its first weekend was lower than Daddy Day Care's in its 16th weekend. This is a failure that should result in people being fired and careers coming to an end.
To update the box office of the movies I mentioned on Friday, Thirteen and American Splendor both did well enough to be featured on the top ten per theatre average chart. Step into Liquid and The Magdalene Sisters both saw significant increases in their box office and both should cross the $1 million mark mid-week while The Secret Lives of Dentists crossed that mark on Friday. And Passionada saw its per theatre average increase from last weekend.
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2003-08-22
ems to be little to get a movie fan interested this week. At least when it comes to wide releases.
It's almost a foregone conclusion that Freddy vs. Jason will finish first this week, just as much as it's a foregone conclusion that it will lose at least 50% at the box office. Just the genre alone would suggest that. Add in the Fanboy effect and sequelitis and the like and a drop of closer to 60% is likely. Mid-week numbers have been horrible; Freddy vs. Jason has lost more than 84% of its daily box office since last Friday. That's on par with The Hulk, which went on to lose nearly 70% at the box office during its second week. The one thing this movie has going for it is the complete lack of competition this week. This should help it grab $15 million this weekend.
The Medallion has already opened internationally and the numbers are average at best. It's currently tracking about 10% lower than The Tuxedo, and that performance should be similar stateside. Reviews are also on lower than The Tuxedo, in other words, bad. Really bad. Although most reviewers did comment on how special effects are replacing stunts in Jackie Chan's movies. (He's turning 50 next year, cut him some slack.) The Medallion should earn about $12 million this weekend.
In third place is S.W.A.T. This TV show turned movie didn't drop nearly as much as expected last weekend and should continue to show some legs. Not a lot mind you, but better than average for the summer. The $11 million is should grab this week will put it close to $90 million and it should cross $100 million by the end of next weekend.
Open Range added a few more theatres in its second week, but it's still not enough to crack the top ten theatre count this week. It will fair better at the box office coming in fourth with $10 million.
Rounding out the top five is Freaky Friday. $9 million for its third weekend is good news for this $26 million movie. $100 million total could be in the cards for Freaky Friday.
Just missing the top five will be My Boss's Daughter. When judging how well a movie will do one of the factors to consider is advertising. Not just how well is the advertising done, but does it even exist. In the case of My Boss's Daughter I've only seen a few ads on TV and it doesn't even have an official website. Earlier in the week it was expected to open in about 1200 theatres, but Dimension Films pushed to have it opening is a respectable 2200 theatres. This after being bounced around to no less than 4 release dates. Add in the fact that is wasn't screen for critics and $7 million opening weekend is about as good as it gets.
Doing even worse and just missing the top ten will be Marci X. A lot of things have been blamed for the soft summer this year from pirates to text messaging. But the real culprit is quality or the lack thereof. You can't tell me there aren't better scripts that haven't been made. Like the previous movie, Marci X wasn't screened for critics and advertising has been nearly non-existent. And with a release of just over 1200 theatres, this movie will probably do even worse than last week's loser Grind did.
But fret not brave reader. There is hope at the box office this weekend in the form of limited releases. Thirteen opened on Wednesday and if the reviews are correct it deserves to find an audience. And the reviews are even better for last week's winner of the per theatre box office, American Splendor (which expanded into 26 more theatres this week.) Other limited releases that should be worth checking out include Passionada, (reviews.) Step into Liquid, (reviews), The Secret Lives of Dentists, (reviews) and The Magdalene Sisters, (reviews.) It may take a little more effort to find a theatre showing these movies. But if enough people see them, then maybe Hollywood will make more high quality movies and fewer movies like Marci X.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-18
couple of surprises this week, and they were pleasant ones. This helped the box office rise by 4.9% from last week, and an amazing 32% from last year.
Beating practically all predictions, and not just mine, was Freddy vs. Jason. $36.4 million was not only double my prediction, it was higher than the total box office of all but one Friday the 13th movie and all but two Nightmare on Elm Street movie. Where were all these fans last year when Jason X bombed at the theatres? However, Freddy vs. Jason did have pretty bad reviews, although they were on par with the rest of the Nightmare and Friday the 13th series. Add in the genre, fanboy effect, sequelitis and your looking at a large drop next weekend. Oh, and before I get anymore more insulting e-mail on this topic please remember two things: 1.) Try and use actual words and proper grammar, when you say stuff like, 'u r stupid' it just makes me pity you. 2.) Try and be insulting. I hang out in ASVS so it takes a lot to offend me. Be creative, be witty, don't repeat, 'LOL' a dozen time and expect it to have an effect.
S.W.A.T. is holding onto its box office better than expected but it still dropped over 50% this weekend. 51.1% to be more precise leaving a figure of $18.1 million. A relatively average result.
Going back to the genre that made him a star, Kevin Costner did better than expected with Open Range. Buoyed by the best reviews of any wide release this week, it was able to earn $14.0 million this week.
Freaky Friday made just a fraction less than predicted at $13.4 million. It's probably just a couple weeks away from making Disney a profit.
Conversely, Uptown Girls made a fraction more than predicted at $11.3 million. However, reviews suggest future earnings will be hurt by word of mouth and MGM will most likely have to wait till the Ancillary market (Hotels, Airliners, Cruise Ships, etc.) before it sees a profit.
Over the weekend reviews for Grind improved all the way to 9% positive, just ahead of reviews for Gigli. However, its box office was actually worse at only $2.5 million. Grind's per theatre average was barely more than $1000, lower than Finding Nemo in its 12th weekend, and lower than Bend it Like Beckham in its 23rd weekend.
Submitted by: C.
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2003-08-15
movies opening wide this week, and with such a crowded market at least two will bomb. And considering the dubious quality of the release, they could all fail to make much of an impact. With so many new openings I'm going to profile them first and then deal with the rest of the top five after.
Freddy vs. Jason - Ten years too late. The Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street franchises are some of the longest lasting with a combines 17 films between them. But despite this they have less than $450 million domestic box office. That's less than Austin Powers has made in just 3 movies. Predictions for this movie go as high as $30 million, but that's more 10 of the previous films earned in their entire run. And the people who grew up with the franchises have grown up themselves and are unlikely to see another slasher movie. Reviews are about what you would expect, 33% overall and about half that for the cream of the crop. Look for about $15 million this weekend and about $35 million overall.
Uptown Girls - MGM misses again. This is the eighth movie released by MGM/UA this year, and so far only one has beaten expectations (Agent Cody Banks) and one other will be profitable (Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde.) Normally I'd give this movie an extra boost given it's target audience, but this year there has been several movies aimed at similar audiences from What a Girl Wants to The Lizzie McGuire Movie to the more recent How to Deal and Freaky Friday. Unfortunately for MGM, reviews are closer to How to Deal than Freaky Friday. And so will the box office. $10 million this week, but with better legs it could top Freddy vs. Jason's $35 million.
Open Range - The Best reviewed wide release of the week. In fact, its score of 77% is higher than the other three movies combined. Too bad it is also the smallest release of the four opening in just over 2000 theatres. Recently Kevin Costner movies haven't performed well at the box office, and chances are good reviews won't save this one. $8 million opening weekend and good word of mouth will be its only hope.
Grind - Worse reviews that Gigli? As I'm writing this Grind is currently sitting at only 8% positive, which's the same score as Gigli. However, even Gigli had one cream of the crop reviewer give it a positive review, the same can't be said for Grind. The only thing going for this movie is it is relatively unknown, so at least there's no negative buzz surrounding it. $5 million opening weekend before dropping out of theatres by September.
If I lived in Cleveland I'd be checking out American Splendor this weekend. Since I don't I'll see if any of the local theatres are playing Passionada. If not, well, I've got a pretty good DVD collection I could dip into.
Now on to the holdovers.
Repeating at top spot will be S.W.A.T., not due to its quality, just because there's so little competition this week. It will stop roughly 55%, but that still leaves $16 million, good enough for first place.
Freaky Friday will drop one spot to land in third. A weekend total of $14 million will raise its run to nearly $60 million. More than it cost to make and advertise.
Making one more appearance in the top 5 will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl. It's just $100,000 from beating Bruce Almighty for third place this year. It is starting to slow down and the race for 2nd place is becoming more interesting. $9 million this weekend will leave it just short of the $250 million mark.
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2003-08-13
k promotional websites for several movies were launched and some older ones added additional content. Here’s a list of highlights, plus one last look at websites for films opening this week. If you know of any new movie websites not on this list feel free to e-mail me with the details.
American Splendor
Current Content: This site takes full advantage of the movie's comic book origins. All the content is presented in comic book form complete with panels and pages you can turn. This includes a lot of the regular features but the coolest is getting to read stuff that Harvey Pekar wrote in his own handwriting. Page after page has been simply scanned in for you to read. Gives a little more insight that most sites allow. If only it had some sound. Even without sound this is the best site of the week and the winner of the pragmatic Weekly Website Award.
Cold Creek Manor
Current Content: The site hasn't launched yet, but at least there's a placeholder site instead of just a redirect. Just the trailer and the poster are available for now.
Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star
Current Content: The flash site opened this week and while it has the usual features (synopsis, trailer, cast and crew bios, production notes) it's the extras that I really liked including two games. One is a 'Where are they now?' Video Poker game and the other is an obstacle course Slip 'n' Slide. Having something interactive on a site is really big plus.
Freddy vs. Jason
Current Content: Two clips and the TV spot were added to the site since last time, as was an extensive Behind the Bloodbath section. This brings the total content on this site to impressive levels. The format is also well done with mood setting background music, animated segues and audio clips from the movie. Too bad it's so bright, the previous darker look fitted the film better.
Grind
Current Content: The movie opens this week, but nothing much has changed with this site since I reviewed it last.
Luther
Current Content: There's an impressive amount of animation. Unfortunately, outside the trailer there is no sound. And while all of the usual features are there, even more are marked coming soon including lots of historical information.
My Life Without Me
Current Content: This site has good content, good animated segues, the only thing it's missing is sound. No effects, no background music, in fact no sound outside the trailer. The Spanish language version of the site has an animated intro with sound, so you might want to check that out before returning to the English version.
Open Range
Current Content: Almost all of the content marked coming soon last time has been added. The majority of this new content is the director's commentary, which is more of a behind the scenes look since many more people speak than just Kevin Costner.
Passionada
Current Content: This is a relatively simple site animated segues or background music, in fact the only sound outside the trailer is a short clip of Fado, which is the style of music featured in the movie. However, there is enough content both usual and unusual to keep the surfer interested. I especially liked the seafood recipes. I also like how nearly every image is a link it makes the simple design more intriguing.
Scooby Doo 2: Monsters Unleashed
Current Content: A clip from Hollywood Access was added to the site.
Second Hand Lions
Current Content: This is the third format for this website. It has mostly the same content as before, just with more animations and sound effects. Each version is more elaborate than the next and at this rate by the time the movie is released it will be more complex than The Matrix website.
Uptown Girls
Current Content: The background music is too short. I can't emphasize that enough. It gets repetitive before the intro is finished. There's also very little of the regular content, just the synopsis, trailer and a few images. The only other content is a few slideshows that introduce the characters.
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