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Weekend Estimates: Iron Man 3 is Number Two All-Time

May 5th, 2013

As expected, Iron Man 3 has crushed competition (such as it is) this weekend to post a gigantic opening weekend. Disney is predicting a total of $175.3 million over three days, which is even a little better than expectations going in to the weekend and represents the second-biggest opening of all time behind its franchise forebear, The Avengers. This kind of opening will inevitably lead to fairly steep drops over the next few weeks, but a final box office total above $400 million is a good bet at this point (5 out of 7 previous films to open above $150 million hit that mark).

More significantly than the $400 million or so the film will earn domestically, it's building massive international earnings too. It is expected to pass $500 million overseas today (Sunday) and will surpass $1 billion worldwide without any trouble. It'll be the 16th film to surpass that mark, and the first, and possibly last, among films released this year.

Working in Iron Man's favor over the next couple of weeks is a lack of competition, although Star Trek Into Darkness will certainly be be the favorite to knock it off the top of the chart on May 17, and after that the market will get more and more crowded. See our monthly preview for details.

With the other major studios giving Iron Man a wide berth, there's not much more news this weekend, but Millenium Entertainment will be celebrating some canny counter-programming. They have not one but two films opening with theater averages above $20,000. The Iceman will earn about $93,000 from 4 venues and What Maisie Knew is set to pick up $23,268 or so from a single theater (which incidentally gives it almost exactly the same theater average).

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Iron Man 3, What Maisie Knew, The Iceman