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Where No Star Trek Film has Gone Before

May 8th, 2009

A delayed column this week as my new computer is still on route. (Short Story Version: My hard drive was more corrupted than expected, and it is taking longer to retrieve my data, which includes all my bookmarks and passwords. I know, dumb of me not to have them written down.) There is only one film that has a real shot at number one, Star Trek, while there is little doubt the overall box office will beat this week last year.

96% positive... Star Trek is earning 96% positive reviews over on Rotten Tomatoes. I was not expecting that. In fact, I was trying to keep my expectations low, to avoid disappointment, but even in my wildest dreams didn't I expect a Tomatometer score this high. (I would have been happy with 60% positive.) As far as box office numbers go, predictions range from $60 million to $100 million. There is a small, small chance the film could open with $110 million, which would mean it would make more money over its opening weekend than The Voyage Home made in total, and that is the current high water mark for the franchise. Sadly, the low end is more likely than the high end, but a solid opening of $75 million is likely.

Second place should go to Wolverine, which has a shot at plummeting more than 70% in its second weekend. That would give it a low of $25 million over the weekend, while at a high it could make close to $40 million. $33 million over the weekend and $136 million in total is what I am predicting.

Lack of direct competition should help Ghosts of Girlfriends Past over the weekend, even if the reviews will hurt it. Look for over $9 million over the weekend and $29 million in total.

Obsessed should place fourth with just over $6 million over the weekend and $56 million in total. Solid midlevel hit and should help further the careers of all those involved.

The final wide release of the week is Next Day Air, but with a theater count of 1,138, it is hard to call it wide. (On a side note, is it ironic there is a film opening in 1,138 theaters the same day the new Star Trek is opening? After all, 1138 is associated with Star Wars and not Star Trek. Oh yes... I am that much of a Geek. I am a Geek with a Capital ‘Gee’!) Looking at its reviews, which are currently 17% positive, there is a chance it will miss the Mendoza Line giving it roughly $2 million for the weekend, but fifth place with just shy of $5 million is more likely. That will not be enough to expand, but it should be enough to remain in theaters for a few weeks. On the other hand, it if shows any weakness, 17 Again will be there to take its place in the top five.

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Filed under: Star Trek, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Obsessed, 17 Again, Ghosts of Girlfriends Past